The residential construction industry in Poland continued to be impacted by negative trends that began in 2022. Declines in building starts (-9% YoY), permits (-19% YoY), and completions (-8% YoY) were recorded in 2023. This reduced supply of new real estate, combined with demand stimulation resulting from a new government-sponsored program dedicated to first-time homebuyers, was reflected in accelerating real estate prices. As the prices of real estate break all-time records, the affordability for buyers keeps falling, which is a key factor supporting the growth in new mortgage lending.
The recent downturn in real estate construction, seen in 2022 and 2023, is expected to reverse due to rising property prices and new governmental support programs that are anticipated to boost demand. The impact of the monetary factor - namely high interest rates - is projected to diminish in 2024 and 2025, which should further support growth in new mortgage lending.
This sector is poised for additional momentum from a new government lending support scheme planned for 2024. Assuming these conditions, our base scenario forecasts a slight increase in overall mortgage lending in 2024, followed by a more significant rise in 2025 and 2026. Total outstanding lending is estimated to reach PLN 545 billion by 2026, with the loan-to-GDP ratio expected to stabilize at approximately 13%.
Table of Contents
1. Residential Real Estate Stock & Prices
- Slide 1: New dwellings completed, starts, permits, 2010-2023
- Slide 2: New dwellings completed by regions, 2023
- Slide 3: Residential real estate prices in key cities, 2014-2023
- Slide 4: Value and volume of transactions involving real estate, 2017-2022
2. Mortgage Lending
- Slide 5: Total outstanding lending to households by type of loan, 2019-2023
- Slide 6: Mortgage loans to households outstanding, local vs. foreign currency, 2019-2023
- Slide 7: Mortgage lending penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2023 Q3
- Slide 8: Mortgage lending in Poland vs. Europe- market size vs. growth, 2021-2023 Q3
- Slide 9: Number of new mortgage loans, value of new loans, average new loan size, 2019-2023
- Slide 10: New sales of mortgage loans to individuals monthly/annual averages: 2019- Dec.2023
- Slide 11: New mortgage loans by size and LTV, 2019 - 2023 Q3
- Slide 12: Top banks by outstanding mortgage loans, 2023 Q3 vs. 2022 Q3
- Slide 13: The latest governmental first-time home buyers programs for 2023 & 2024
- Slide 14: New mortgage contracts - split by type of interest rate applied (fixed ARM vs. variable), 2021 Q4- 2023 Q3
- Slide 15: Average lending margins evolution - PLN loans, 2019-2023
- Slide 16: The evolution of mortgage loan NPLs, 2020-2023
3. Forecast
- Slide 17: Mortgage loans - outstanding value forecast (PLN, FX loans), GDP penetration, 2024-2026
4. Methodological Notes
Companies Mentioned
- ING
- mBank
- Millennium
- Pekao
- PKO BP
- Santander
