Canada Commercial HVAC - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2024 - 2029)

The Canada Commercial HVAC Market size is estimated at USD 1 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 1.42 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 7.21% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

Key Highlights

• The commercial HVAC market in Canada encompasses a broad range of HVAC products and services related to heating, ventilation, and cooling equipment for commercial applications. Various factors, including government measures and policies, growing adoption of smart HVAC systems, and emphasis on energy efficiency, influence the adoption of HVAC equipment like heat pumps in the country.
• The IEA stated that Canada is considering introducing a new regulation requiring heating technologies to exceed an efficiency factor of 1 (equivalent to 100% equipment efficiency) by 2030. This proposed regulation would effectively prohibit using traditional coal, oil, and gas-fired boilers. Furthermore, the increasing need to decrease dependence on fossil fuels and explore energy-efficient alternatives for furnaces and cooling equipment is expected to drive the demand for heat pumps in Canada in the coming years.
• Heat pumps present a significant opportunity for Manitobans. One key reason is their potential to save residents money on heating costs. For instance, in November 2023, the Manitoba government committed to funding the installation of 5,000 geothermal heat pumps across the province. Unlike air-source heat pumps, which rely on outside air, geothermal heat pumps extract heat from the ground, enabling them to function effectively even in colder climates.
• The cost of an HVAC system hinges on many factors, including the size of the commercial building, the specific HVAC system and brand chosen, prevailing climatic conditions, and ductwork dimensions. High HVAC equipment costs often translate to prolonged payback periods for consumers. Moreover, as the market increasingly favors advanced solutions, such as swapping traditional heat pumps for geothermal alternatives, these trends are poised to increase HVAC prices, potentially stunting market growth.
• Macroeconomic factors wield substantial influence over market dynamics, especially in sectors such as commercial. Government regulations and regional initiatives further shape the commercial landscape. Notably, commercial growth fluctuations closely track the demand for HVAC equipment. Additionally, rising inflation tends to elevate the costs of materials, labor, and energy in HVAC system production and installation, frequently leading to increased prices for new installations.

Canada Commercial HVAC Market Trends

Commercial Buildings is Expected to Witness Significant Growth

• Commercial air conditioning (AC) refers to the cooling and ventilation systems found in buildings that are not used for residential purposes. These systems are specifically created to cater to large areas' cooling and comfort requirements, such as offices, retail outlets, hospitals, hotels, restaurants, malls, and other commercial and industrial spaces. Government spending and private investment in infrastructure in the country are projected to generate a significant demand for commercial air conditioners.
• Thus, the flourishing construction industry in the country has unlocked substantial business opportunities for commercial air conditioners installed for heating and cooling purposes in high-rise buildings, industrial units, commercial complexes, parking units, hospitals, and hotels. Commercial air conditioning creates a comfortable and secure indoor environment for individuals by regulating the temperature, humidity, and air quality to appropriate levels. Along with offering comfort, efficient commercial AC systems can help save money, reduce noise, and enhance it.
• The demand for boilers is poised for a positive future, mainly due to the rising need for energy-efficient heating systems. The rising focus on reducing GHG (greenhouse gas emissions) and enhancing energy efficiency is anticipated to drive the demand for advanced boilers in commercial sectors. Moreover, the growing adoption of combined heat and power (CHP) systems, which utilize boilers for generating heat and electricity, will also play a significant role in fostering market growth.
• The growing commercial sector is the main factor driving the increasing need for air-handling units. The country is experiencing rapid urban growth, leading to a higher demand for commercial property construction. For instance, according to StatCan, in February 2024, Canada's construction industry bolstered the country's GDP by approximately CAD 160.97 billion.

HVAC Equipment is Expected to Hold Significant Market Share

• The demand for water-source heat pumps is forecasted to experience a significant boost as a result of the escalating investments in the commercial sector in Canada. Heat pump systems are commonly employed in office buildings, hospitals, and hotels to deliver hot water, space heating, and cooling. The efficiency of heat pumps in non-residential buildings for heating and cooling purposes is remarkably high, owing to their capability to sustain low system temperatures and attain exceptional energy efficiency. Various companies are committed to offering a diverse array of water-source heat pumps for commercial applications.
• For instance, in February 2024, Johnson Controls introduced a water-to-water screw heat pump intended for use in small commercial buildings and district heating. The company announced that its latest product, the York YVWH Water-to-Water Dual Variable Speed Screw Heat Pump, is the latest to utilize the R-1234ze refrigerant. This refrigerant boasts an ultra-low global warming potential (GWP) of 1, allowing the YVWH to surpass the upcoming refrigerant regulations set to take effect on January 1, 2025.
• Ground-source heat pumps (Geothermal heat pumps) use the Earth's consistent temperature beneath the surface to extract or release heat. These systems tap into the Earth's natural thermal energy by circulating a fluid through underground pipes. Despite the higher installation expenses, geothermal heat pumps are recognized for their outstanding efficiency and potential for long-term cost savings.
• Canada's energy landscape has witnessed a significant shift with the emergence of ground source heat pumps (GSHPs), which offer efficient and environmentally friendly heating and cooling solutions for residential properties. According to the Manitoba Government, geothermal technology is gaining traction among various stakeholders, including commercial building owners. For instance, according to StatCan, Moncton witnessed a substantial 12% surge in construction costs for commercial buildings in 2023. In contrast, Quebec experienced a more modest 5.5% increase in 2023.
• Canada's market growth is primarily fueled by its swift industrialization and urbanization. The surge in commercial building construction has led to a heightened demand for Air Handling Units, used mainly for space heating and cooling - additionally, the market benefits from a boost due to the increasing disposable income of Canadian consumers.

Canada Commercial HVAC Industry Overview

The Canada Commercial HVAC market is fragmented, with the presence of major players like Robert Bosch GmbH, Carrier Corporation, Panasonic Holdings Corporation, Johnson Controls International PLC, Trane Technologies PLC, and Danfoss Inc., among others. Players in the market are adopting strategies such as partnerships, mergers, innovations, investments, and acquisitions to enhance product offerings and gain sustainable competitive advantage.

• June 2024: The Canada HRAI and the HVAC Designers of Canada (HVAC-DC) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The primary goal of this MOU is to foster enhanced communication, cooperation, and collaboration within the HVAC industry. The organizations will also improve awareness regarding the criticality of proper HVAC system commissioning and elevate industry standards.
• May 2024: Lennox and Samsung have signed an agreement to establish a joint venture in Canada. This venture will focus on marketing ductless AC and heat pump products, including mini-split, multi-split, and VRF systems. Samsung will take the lead with a 50.1% stake, while Lennox will hold the remaining 49.9%. The collaboration aims to introduce innovative HVAC products and leverage existing customer networks.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

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