China Commercial HVAC - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2024 - 2029)

The China Commercial HVAC Market size is estimated at USD 9.14 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 13.75 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 8.51% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

Key Highlights

• HVAC systems are crucial and essential for any commercial structure to provide occupants with a comfortable atmosphere. For instance, HVAC systems are frequently utilized in many offices to offer suitable temperature and ventilation settings, which helps to improve employee productivity and working conditions and minimize health risks brought on by inadequate humidity levels. This need for HVAC solutions in China is anticipated to increase demand for HVAC equipment such as air handling units.
• China, a key manufacturing hub for HVAC machinery and components, is pivotal in driving market growth. With a robust manufacturing infrastructure, China hosts numerous factories specializing in HVAC equipment. This scale of production ensures economies of scale and translates into competitive pricing. For instance, Heat pumps, a type of HVAC equipment, are poised to be pivotal in China's efforts to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and attain carbon neutrality by 2060.
• Environmental laws, including the China Green Building Evaluation Label (GBEL), are becoming more prevalent in China. As a result, the country's HVAC industry is turning toward environmentally friendly AHUs with low Global Warming Potential (GWP) and energy-efficient technology.
• In commercial settings, HVAC equipment encompasses an array of components vital for heating and cooling systems. With each additional part in an HVAC unit, the risk of component failure rises, presenting a hurdle to China's HVAC equipment market expansion. Furthermore, when HVAC equipment fails, it raises operating costs for end-users and prompts them to consider alternative products, dampening the demand for HVAC equipment.
• Continuing challenges from macroeconomic factors such as inflation and elevated interest rates persist for the commercial HVAC market in China. Moreover, as equipment and installation costs rise, consumers may opt for repairs over replacements. Furthermore, with China projected to account for 70% of HFC production and consumption by 2035, the HVAC sector faces potential shortages and notable price escalations.

China Commercial HVAC Market Trends

Commercial Buildings is Expected to Witness a Significant Growth

• China holds a significant position in the global HVAC market, with heating accounting for 42% of total HVAC sales worldwide. The government of China is intensifying efforts to combat air quality concerns exacerbated by the nation's commercial activities to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. For instance, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in 2023, the total sales revenue from commercialized real estate sold in China amounted to around CNY 11.7 trillion (USD 1.61 trillion).
• In November 2023, Carrier Corporation hosted over 300 commercial HVAC dealers from various regions of China at its annual conference in Changsha. At the Commercial Equipment Market Opportunities event, Carrier's leadership highlighted the company's strategic investments in burgeoning sectors such as new energy, data centers, agriculture, and healthcare. The event highlighted the role of the HVAC industry in supporting China's dual carbon strategy by adopting intelligent and green building solutions.
• The commercial air conditioner industry is expected to experience significant growth in China in the coming years. Various trends, such as automated systems and environmentally friendly technology, are projected to impact the market substantially. The growing need for energy-efficient air conditioners is driving the expansion of this sector. Additionally, the growth of the commercial construction industry is playing a crucial role in the surging demand for air conditioners in China.
• Moreover, sensitive electronic components are located in data centers, and temperature, humidity, ventilation, and cleanliness must be maintained daily to avoid the breakdown of critical machinery. The growth in data centers is a crucial factor driving the demand for commercial ventilation equipment. Additionally, data center managers can use robust HVAC tools like AHUs to ensure that server rooms are kept at the right temperature and humidity.

HVAC Equipment is Expected to Hold Significant Market Share

• China's building sector is witnessing a rapid surge in energy demand for space cooling, exerting pressure on its electricity grid. This surge exacerbates local air pollution and escalates carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Over the past two decades, China has experienced the swiftest escalation in building cooling energy demand globally. China stands out as the sole primary market to witness growth in heat pump sales in 2023 amidst a global decline of 3%, as reported by the IEA. Despite its continued reliance on coal for heating, this shift underscores a notable trend in China's energy landscape.
• China is the largest manufacturer and exporter of heat pumps, accounting for approximately 40% of the global production. Notably, most of China's heat pump exports are directed towards Europe. China boasts the largest workforce globally specializing in heat pump installations, commanding a dominant market share exceeding 40% in heat pump manufacturing. The region's manufacturing capabilities will enhance the market's growth.
• Air conditioning (AC) systems are crucial in maintaining a comfortable environment for occupants in various commercial buildings, including restaurants, hospitals, schools, hotels, and office buildings. For instance, offices often rely on commercial AC (air conditioners) to ensure optimal temperature and ventilation, leading to improved employee productivity, working conditions, and health outcomes by avoiding issues related to improper humidity levels.
• For instance, in September 2023, Toshiba HVAC, a Carrier Global Corporation division, introduced its latest Digital Inverter (DI) series in mainland China. This new light commercial ductless split air-conditioning system boasts easy installation and energy-efficient, smart features. The DI series highlights the following: Energy Efficiency ensures load management and precise temperature control, enhancing user comfort while conserving energy.

China Commercial HVAC Industry Overview

The Chinese commercial HVAC market is fragmented, with the presence of major players like Daikin Industries Ltd, Carrier Corporation, Robert Bosch GmbH, Johnson Controls International PLC, Mitsubishi Electric Hydronics & IT Cooling Systems SpA, and System Air AB. Players in the market are adopting strategies such as partnerships, mergers, innovations, investments, and acquisitions to enhance product offerings and gain sustainable competitive advantage.

• In March 2024, Samsung Electronics Co. vied to acquire Johnson Controls International's HVAC assets, valued at over USD 6 billion. This potential deal would signify Samsung's first significant acquisition in seven years and signal its strategic move into the burgeoning HVAC market. It is expected to witness substantial growth in the years ahead. Meanwhile, Johnson Controls is actively pursuing the divestment of its light commercial businesses in tandem with its advisors.
• February 2024: Carrier China signed a USD 17 million (RMB 100 million) deal with China Eastern Airlines Investment Co., Ltd. (CES Investment) to provide XCT7 variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems for commercial offices in China. These systems surpass China's national Level I energy efficiency standard, boasting an impressive integrated part load value (IPLV) of up to 10. It can rapidly cool or heat spaces, boasting an ultra-quiet operation at just 23 decibels, quieter than a whisper.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

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