Europe E-Fuels Market Outlook, 2029

The European e-fuel business is expanding rapidly as the EU strives to reach its ambitious climate targets, particularly through the decarbonisation of sectors such as transportation and manufacturing. E-fuels, or synthetic fuels, provide a possible alternative by combining renewable energy and carbon capture technology to create fuels that can replace traditional fossil fuels. In Europe, e-fuels are being investigated to minimise the carbon footprint of industries such as aviation, shipping, automobiles, and even electricity generation. E-fuels rose to prominence in Europe as countries began to prioritise climate change mitigation and renewable energy alternatives.

As part of this policy, Europe is advocating for the use of synthetic fuels in difficult-to-decarbonize industries such as aviation and marine transport, where electrification is difficult due to long distance needs. Governments like Germany, France, and Spain included large expenditures in renewable energy and hydrogen technology in their recovery plans, accelerating the development of e-fuels. The Renewable Energy Directive (RED II), which requires a set amount of renewable fuels in the transportation sector, is one of the primary policies pushing e-fuel development.

Under this directive, e-fuels are categorised as Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBOs), which must adhere to stringent sustainability standards. The Fischer-Tropsch process, which converts hydrogen and collected CO₂ into synthetic fuels like e-diesel and e-kerosene, has improved efficiency, making it more commercially viable. Direct Air Capture (DAC) systems that capture CO₂ directly from the environment are being integrated into e-fuel manufacturing.

According to the research report, "Europe E-Fuel Market Outlook, 2029,", the Europe E-Fuel market is anticipated to add to more than USD 9 Billion by 2024-29. In Germany, Porsche and Siemens Energy are leading a high-profile e-fuel project in Chile called Haru Oni, which seeks to manufacture e-methanol and petrol. This project is projected to help Porsche decarbonise its vehicle fleet while increasing synthetic fuel output. Shell is another key competitor in Europe's e-fuel business, having invested in synthetic fuel plants around the continent and formed agreements with companies such as HIF Global.

Shell is also looking into synthetic aviation fuel manufacturing to address the growing need for sustainable aviation solutions. TotalEnergies, a French company, is heavily involved in hydrogen and e-fuel developments, particularly in the aviation sector. The company is working with Airbus and other partners to develop e-kerosene for future aircraft fleets. Germany, in particular, is presenting itself as a global hub for green hydrogen and e-fuel production, with plans to export these fuels to North America and Asia. At the same time, Europe plans to import e-fuels from nations with rich renewable energy resources, such as Chile and North Africa.

Germany's alliances with Chile and Namibia demonstrate Europe's plan for securing e-fuel supply chains. The Haru Oni project in Chile, which is backed by Siemens Energy and the German government, is intended to export e-methanol and e-gasoline into Europe. Europe's e-fuel supply chain is still in its early stages, but major energy corporations such as Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP are investing in infrastructure to facilitate the commercialisation of e-fuels.

Market Drivers

Global Climate Goals and Regulations: One of the most important drivers of the e-fuel market is the need to reach global climate goals, such as the Paris Agreement and Net-Zero Emissions by 2050. To minimise greenhouse gas emissions, governments around the world are putting in place stronger emission laws. Europe, for example, is a strong champion, with rules such as the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) regulating the use of renewable fuels in transportation.

Hard-to-decarbonize sectors: While electrification is gaining traction in many industries, certain ones, such as aviation, shipping, and heavy industries, are difficult to decarbonise using batteries alone. E-fuels offer a low-carbon alternative to fossil fuels, particularly in long-distance aircraft and maritime transport, where battery-powered solutions are less practicable.

Market Challenges

High production costs: One of the most significant problems for e-fuels is their high manufacturing costs, which now make them less competitive than traditional fossil fuels. E-fuel production includes sophisticated techniques such as hydrogen electrolysis and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, both of which are still in the early phases of commercialisation. The cost of green hydrogen production, in particular, is a major consideration, driven by high capital investment on electrolysers and the necessity for vast amounts of renewable electricity.

Energy Efficiency: E-fuel generation is energy intensive. The conversion of renewable electricity into e-fuels, which includes hydrogen creation and subsequent fuel synthesis, results in significant energy losses. According to study, e-fuels may be only 40-60% efficient when compared to the direct usage of electricity in battery-electric cars, which can achieve up to 90% efficiency.

Market Trends

Scaling Production Capacity: There is a strong trend towards increasing e-fuel production to reduce expenses. Countries such as Germany and Norway are investing in gigawatt-scale hydrogen projects to generate the green hydrogen required for large-scale e-fuel generation. The Haru Oni project in Chile, supported by Siemens Energy and Porsche, aims to manufacture commercial volumes of synthetic petrol by 2025.

Partnerships and Collaborations: Collaborations between governments, energy businesses, and technology suppliers are critical to promoting e-fuel technologies. Companies such as BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies are working with aeroplane and car manufacturers to incorporate e-fuels into their operations. These cooperation are also taking place across borders, with Europe forging ties with countries wealthy in renewable energy resources, such as Chile and Namibia.

The aviation sector leads the European e-fuel market.

The aviation sector leads the European e-fuel market in end-use applications due to the industry's pressing need to decarbonise and achieve sustainability targets. Aviation contributes significantly to global CO₂ emissions, and electrifying aeroplanes for long-haul trips is currently not viable. Thus, e-kerosene, or synthetic aviation fuel, is being positioned as a critical answer for decreasing carbon emissions in aviation. Regulations such as the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) framework promote the transition to sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), making e-fuels critical for compliance and environmental goals.

Airbus has been partnering with energy businesses to study synthetic fuel possibilities for its next-generation aircraft, with the aim to provide carbon-neutral flights. In addition to aviation, the automobile industry is embracing e-fuels, notably in the high-performance and luxury car industries, where e-fuels provide an alternative to internal combustion engines (ICE) without sacrificing performance.

Porsche is a famous example, aggressively researching synthetic petrol as a clean alternative for sports cars and collaborating with energy companies such as Siemens Energy on projects like the Haru Oni plant in Chile. Marine applications are gaining momentum because to laws such as the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) decarbonisation targets, which promote zero-emission fuels for shipping.

Transportation is the most important segment in the European e-fuel market, with the aviation, marine, and automobile sectors leading the way.

Aviation stands out as the largest contributor, owing to the industry's immediate need to decarbonise and its reliance on e-fuels as a long-term replacement for jet fuel. With severe standards such as the European Union's Fit for 55 package and the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) CORSIA framework, e-fuels, particularly e-kerosene, are fast developing and being implemented in the transportation sector. The aviation industry aims to reduce CO₂ emissions through sustainable solutions, and e-fuels offer a feasible option for compliance. Airbus, one of the top local corporations, is instrumental in accelerating the aviation sector's acceptance of e-fuels.

The company collaborates with partners to develop and test e-fuel for commercial aeroplanes. Similarly, Rolls-Royce is working on developing e-fuel-compatible engines to ensure that future fleets are prepared for the sustainable fuel transition. Porsche is at the forefront of automobile e-fuel development thanks to its collaboration with Siemens Energy at the Haru Oni plant.

The automobile industry is also investing in e-fuels, notably for high-performance vehicles and heavy-duty transportation, where electrification is less practical. E-diesel and e-gasoline provide a carbon-neutral alternative to traditional fuels for internal combustion engines, particularly in markets where eliminating these engines totally is not feasible in the near future.

In the European e-fuel market, e-kerosene (synthetic aviation fuel) is now the most popular.

This dominance stems mostly from the aviation industry's crucial need for sustainable fuel alternatives to satisfy decarbonisation targets and comply with rigorous environmental requirements. Aviation contributes heavily to carbon emissions, yet electrification is not practicable for long-haul flights, therefore e-kerosene is the industry's most viable answer.

The development of e-kerosene has accelerated, particularly in Europe, as a result of regulatory pressure from programs such as the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), which requires airlines to decrease emissions. Furthermore, the European Green Deal seeks climate neutrality by 2050, with e-kerosene playing a critical role in reaching this goal by lowering aviation's carbon footprint.

Airbus, one of the world's leading aerospace manufacturers, is actively working with energy companies to investigate the possibility for synthetic aviation fuels. Furthermore, Rolls-Royce is substantially investing in developing engines compatible with e-kerosene, ensuring that future aircraft fleets may run on sustainable fuels. Neste, a Finnish firm that produces sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and e-kerosene, is also a prominent player. These collaborations demonstrate Europe's leadership in the development of e-kerosene, which is fuelled by innovation and regulatory assistance. Investments in synthetic fuel facilities, such the Haru Oni plant in Chile, in collaboration with Porsche and Siemens Energy, are increasing the manufacture of e-kerosene for the European market.

Hydrogen technology (electrolysis) is the dominating technology in the European e-fuel market due to its critical role in green hydrogen production.

Electrolysis converts renewable electricity into hydrogen by breaking water molecules. This technique is gaining traction as countries attempt to reach high carbon neutrality targets while reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Electrolysis is a vital technology for manufacturing sustainable fuels such as e-kerosene, e-methanol, and other hydrocarbons, as it can manufacture hydrogen using renewable energy sources. Siemens Energy, a leading domestic company in this field, has developed revolutionary electrolyser technologies to increase green hydrogen production. Their projects, such as the Haru Oni facility, are examples of initiatives that combine electrolysis with e-fuel production.

Thyssenkrupp is also making progress in electrolysis technology, working on large-scale systems to convert renewable energy into hydrogen. Their Water Electrolysis project aims to scale up hydrogen generation to satisfy industrial demands. As electrolysis technology advances, it is likely to play an increasingly important part in the European e-fuel landscape, accelerating the transition to a more sustainable energy system and establishing firms such as Siemens Energy, Nel ASA, and Thyssenkrupp as industry leaders.

Germany presently leads the European market for e-fuel systems.

Germany is now dominating due to its strong legislative structure, technological developments, and significant investment in renewable energy projects. Germany's ambition to becoming climate neutral by 2045 is consistent with its ambitious plans to decarbonise the transport industry. The country has established itself as a forerunner in the manufacture and utilisation of synthetic fuels, particularly through programs that promote hydrogen generation via electrolysis, which is important for developing e-fuels like e-kerosene and e-methanol. Key local firms like Siemens Energy and Thyssenkrupp are significantly involved in e-fuel projects, helping to advance the technology and commercialisation of synthetic fuels.

Furthermore, Germany's policy environment encourages research and development in e-fuels and hydrogen technologies, bolstering the country's position as a pioneer in this field. Furthermore, Germany participates in a number of European collaborations aimed at promoting e-fuel technology, including the H2Global initiative, which promotes green hydrogen generation and applications. This combination of a strong industrial base, government support, and a clear vision for a sustainable energy future reinforces Germany's leadership position in the European e-fuel industry. For more information, consult the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and Hydrogen Europe.

Considered in this report

• Historic year: 2018
• Base year: 2023
• Estimated year: 2024
• Forecast year: 2029

Aspects covered in this report

• E-fuels market Outlook with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

By End-use

• Aviation
• Marine
• Industrial
• Railway
• Automotive
• Others

By Application

• Transportation
• Industrial
• Power Generation
• Others

By Type of E-fuel

• E-kerosene (Synthetic Aviation Fuel)
• E-diesel
• E-gasoline
• E-methanol
• Other Hydrocarbons

By Technology

• Hydrogen technology (Electrolysis)
• Fischer-Tropsch
• Reverse-Water-Gas-Shift (RWGS)

The approach of the report:

This report consists of a combined approach of primary and secondary research. Initially, secondary research was used to get an understanding of the market and list the companies that are present in it. The secondary research consists of third-party sources such as press releases, annual reports of companies, and government-generated reports and databases.

After gathering the data from secondary sources, primary research was conducted by conducting telephone interviews with the leading players about how the market is functioning and then conducting trade calls with dealers and distributors of the market. Post this; we have started making primary calls to consumers by equally segmenting them in regional aspects, tier aspects, age group, and gender. Once we have primary data with us, we can start verifying the details obtained from secondary sources.

Intended audience

This report can be useful to industry consultants, manufacturers, suppliers, associations, and organizations related to the E-fuels industry, government bodies, and other stakeholders to align their market-centric strategies. In addition to marketing and presentations, it will also increase competitive knowledge about the industry.