Growth Opportunities in European Heavy-duty Electric Trucks

EV Adoption in Regional Haulage to Ensure Future Growth Potential of HD Electric Truck Sales

Countries across the world are moving toward a low-carbon economy. Electric vehicle adoption is gaining traction as a part of this shift, with rapid penetration expected beyond 2025 as the market for EV adoption matures and more EVs become available for commercial sale.

In Europe, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is an important element of the low-emission mobility strategy. City administrative bodies and local authorities play pivotal roles in this transition by providing incentives for low-emission vehicles and deploying charging infrastructure. Government incentives and programs, such as the electromobility directive from Germany, electric charging funding in France, and the Efficient and Sustainable Mobility Incentives (MOVES) II program in Spain, will drive electrification and the growth of charging infrastructure.

OEMs are focusing on urban distribution, refuse, and regional haul as strong use cases for electrification. Battery energy density and cycle life are expected to increase even as costs reduce with the likely commercialization of solid-state lithium and lithium-sulfur technology after 2027. Fuel cell technology is progressively getting better at power density and durability.

Crude oil price fluctuations and lower maintenance costs will strongly favor the total cost of ownership of electric trucks as battery prices are expected to decline significantly after 2025. Lower cost of ownership with attractive leasing options for batteries and trucks and greater access to charging infrastructure will encourage smaller fleets to shift to electric vehicles.

The study covers the commercial vehicle (CV) market, particularly HD CV: Greater than 16 tons GVWR. The study also provides a total cost of ownership analysis to examine the effect of these factors on the electric MD and HD segments.