Renewable Energy Certificates Market Opportunities and Strategies to 2033

This report describes and explains the renewable energy certificates market and covers 2018-2023, termed the historic period, and 2023-2028, 2033F termed the forecast period. The report evaluates the market across each region and for the major economies within each region.

The global renewable energy certificates market reached a value of nearly $13.71 billion in 2023, having grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.71% since 2018. The market is expected to grow from $13.71 billion in 2023 to $49.01 billion in 2028 at a rate of 29.02%. The market is then expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.97% from 2028 and reach $126.97 billion in 2033.

Growth in the historic period resulted from the rising environmental awareness, declining renewable energy costs, increase in energy demand and consumption and increasing use of solar energy. Factors that negatively affected growth in the historic period include economic uncertainties or downturns.

Going forward, the growing demand for renewable energy sources, rising electricity prices, strong economic growth in emerging markets, government policies and regulations promoting clean energy, increasing industrialization and renewable energy expansion will drive the market. Factors that could hinder the growth of the renewable energy certificates market in the future include variability in renewable energy production.

The renewable energy certificates market is segmented by energy type into wind power, solar energy, gas power and hydro-electric power. The solar energy market was the largest segment of the renewable energy certificates market segmented by energy type, accounting for 50.17% or $6.87 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the wind energy segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the renewable energy certificates market segmented by energy type, at a CAGR of 30.99% during 2023-2028.

The renewable energy certificates market is segmented by capacity into 0-1000 KWh, 1000-5000 KWh and greater than 5000 KWh. The greater than 5000 KWh market was the largest segment of the renewable energy certificates market segmented by capacity, accounting for 52.05% or $7.13 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the 1000-5000 KWh segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the renewable energy certificates market segmented by capacity, at a CAGR of 31.05% during 2023-2028.

The renewable energy certificates market is segmented by end-use into compliance and voluntary. The compliance market was the largest segment of the renewable energy certificates market segmented by end-use, accounting for 77.67% or $10.64 billion of the total in 2023. Going forward, the voluntary segment is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the renewable energy certificates market segmented by end-use, at a CAGR of 30.95% during 2023-2028.

North America was the largest region in the renewable energy certificates market, accounting for 33.26% or $4.55 billion of the total in 2023. It was followed by Asia-Pacific, Western Europe and then the other regions. Going forward, the fastest-growing regions in the renewable energy certificates market will be Asia-Pacific and Africa, where growth will be at CAGRs of 32.36% and 31.75% respectively. These will be followed by the Middle East and South America, where the markets are expected to grow at CAGRs of 31.08% and 29.84% respectively.

The global renewable energy certificates market is fragmented, with large number of players operating in the market. The top ten competitors in the market made up to 6.43% of the total market in 2023. Statkraft AS was the largest competitor with a 1.60% share of the market, followed by Constellation Energy Corporation with 1.45%, NextEra Energy INc. with 0.62%, Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. with 0.55%, ENGIE SA with 0.53%, Shell plc with 0.49%, EDF Renewables Inc. with 0.44%, Duke Energy Corporation with 0.2749%, Clearway Energy Group with 0.2748% and Centrica plc with 0.21%.

The top opportunities in the renewable energy certificates market segmented by energy type will arise in the solar energy segment, which will gain $17.52 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The top opportunities in the renewable energy certificates market segmented by capacity will arise in the greater than 5000 KWh segment, which will gain $18.12 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The top opportunities in the renewable energy certificates market segmented by end use will arise in the compliance segment, which will gain $26.58 billion of global annual sales by 2028. The renewable energy certificates market size will gain the most in the USA at $8.41 billion.

Market-trend-based strategies for the renewable energy certificates market include focus on launching new wind energy certificates to enhance sustainability, introducing innovative certification programs to boost consumer confidence in domestic renewables, the development of innovative advancement solutions, such as renewable energy certificates services, to address the growing demand for renewable energy and to support companies in their decarbonization efforts, adopting a strategic partnership approach for business expansion in the market and focus on offering streamlined renewable energy certificates registration for businesses and individuals.

Player-adopted strategies in the renewable energy certificates market include focus on strengthening market position through strategic partnerships.

To take advantage of the opportunities, the analyst recommends the renewable energy certificates companies to focus on expanding wind energy certificates, focus on innovating certification programs, focus on developing advanced renewable energy certificate services, focus on streamlining renewable energy certificates registration, focus on expanding in the wind power segment, focus on targeting the 1000-5000 Kwh market segment, expand in emerging markets, continue to focus on developed markets, focus on strategic partnerships for market expansion, provide competitively priced offerings, participate in trade shows and events and focus on compliance and voluntary end-use segments.