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North America Renewable Diesel Outlook 2030- Product Image
North America Renewable Diesel Outlook 2030- Product Image
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North America Renewable Diesel Outlook 2030

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    Report

  • February 2025
  • Region: North America
  • cKinetics
  • ID: 6050973
Description Jump to:

The North American renewable diesel market is undergoing a market correction due to oversupply and regulatory uncertainty. However, policy support for bio-based fuels is expected to stay given its positive impact to the agriculture and farm sectors. Given the lack of options to decarbonize heavy vehicles, the demand for low-carbon fuels will likely remain near to mid-term. This will keep the industry on an upward trajectory. The following 12-24 months will be critical in determining how producers navigate shrinking margins, feedstock shifts, and the impact of the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) tax credit.

The report provides a detailed outlook on North America’s renewable diesel market, projecting capacity additions and total production through 2030. It examines historic feedstock trends and forecasts future feedstock requirements, offering insights into supply dynamics. The report also analyzes the impact of state and federal clean fuel standards on the RD market, assessing how incentives will evolve over the next five years. Additionally, it includes a comprehensive database of RD producers and facilities, featuring capacity utilization analysis to help stakeholders understand market performance and growth potential.

Table of Contents

1. Glossary & Methodology
1.1 Abbreviations
1.2 Market Definitions
1.3 Methodology

2. Executive Summary
3. Introduction to the Renewable Diesel Market
3.1 Market Snapshot

4. Comparison Between 2023 and 2024 Report
4.1 Forecast Comparison
4.2 Market Addition
4.3 Capacity Reductions

5. North America Renewable Diesel, Data Analysis, 2018-2030
5.1 North America Renewable Diesel Production, 2018-2030
5.2 North America Renewable Diesel Market Size, 2018-2030
5.3 North America Renewable Diesel Import, 2018-2030
5.4 North America Renewable Diesel Ending Stocks/Exports, 2018-2024
5.5 North America Renewable Diesel Cumulative Capacity, 2025-2030
5.6 North America Renewable Diesel Facility Addition, 2009-2030

6. Renewable Diesel in North American Markets with Clean Fuel Standards, 2018-2030
6.1 Clean Fuel Standards in North America: An Introduction
6.2 North America Renewable Diesel Consumption in Markets with Clean Fuel Standards, 2018-2030
6.3 North America Renewable Diesel, Total Credits Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030
6.4 North America Renewable Diesel, Carbon Intensity by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030
6.5 North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2030
6.6 North America Renewable Diesel, Pathways Registered in Clean Fuel Standard Markets, 2018-2024
6.7 Average Credit Prices Across Clean Fuel Markets, 2018-2024

7. North America, Renewable Diesel Feedstock Analysis, 2018-2030
7.1 Synopsis of Feedstock Analysis
7.2 North America Estimated Feedstock Requirement for Renewable Diesel, 2018-2024
7.3 North America Estimated Feedstock Potential Requirement Renewable diesel, 2025-2030
7.4 Analysis of North American Renewable Diesel Demand on the Current Feedstock Availability
7.5 North America Feedstock Total Production, By Type, 2018-2024
7.6 North America Feedstock Total Imports, By Type, 2018-2024
7.7 North America Feedstock, Total Exports, By Type, 2018-2024
7.8 North America Feedstock, Total Consumption, By Type, 2018-2024
7.9 United States, Feedstock Consumption Analysis, (Biofuels vs Others), 2018-2024
7.10 North America Estimated Feedstock Requirement for Renewable Diesel, 2018-2030
7.11 North America Feedstock Prices, By Type, 2018-2030

8. North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis
8.1 North America Renewable Diesel, Specifications and Fuel Properties
8.2 North America Renewable Diesel Production, by Technology
8.3 North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis, by Prices

9. North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis, Policies and Regulatory Framework
9.1 Existing policies
9.2 Recent Developments

10. North American Renewable Diesel Market Dynamics
10.1 Current State
10.2 Market Drivers
10.3 Market Challenges
10.4 Market Opportunities
10.5 Trends in North American Market
10.6 Future Outlook

11. North America Renewable Diesel, PESTLE Analysis
11.1 Political Factors
11.2 Economic Factors
11.3 Social Factors
11.4 Technological Factors
11.5 Legal Factors
11.6 Environmental Factors

12. Competitive Landscape
12.1 Competitive Rivalry
12.2 Supplier Power
12.3 Buyer Power
12.4 Threat of Substitution
12.5 Threat of New Entry
12.6 Total Renewable Diesel Nameplate Capacity (Million Gallons) and Investment (US$ million) by 2030O

13. Company Profiles
13.1 Shell plc
13.2 Phillips 66
13.3 Darling Ingredients
13.4 Valero Energy Corporation
13.5 Neste
13.6 ENI
13.7 Marathon Petroleum Corporation
13.8 BP plc
13.9 Total Energies
13.10 Fidelis New Energy, LLC

14. North America Renewable Diesel Producer Database
14.1 North America, Renewable Diesel, Plant Details

15. Conclusion
16. About the Publisher
16.1 Disclaimer

List of Figures
Figure 1: North America Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024
Figure 2: North America Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030
Figure 3: United States Renewable Diesel Regional Production Market Share, 2024.
Figure 4: United States Renewable Diesel Regional Market Share, 2030
Figure 5: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024
Figure 6: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030
Figure 7: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value (In US$ Million), 2018-2024
Figure 8: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value, (In US$ Million), 2025-2030
Figure 9: North America Renewable Diesel, Imports (in Million Gallons), 2018-2024
Figure 10: North America Renewable Diesel, Imports, (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030
Figure 11: North America Renewable Diesel Ending Stocks/Exports (in Million Gallons), 2018-2024
Figure 12: North American Renewable Diesel, Cumulative Capacity (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030
Figure 13: North America, Renewable Diesel, Facility Locations by 2030
Figure 14: Clean Fuel Standards across North America
Figure 15: North America Renewable Diesel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in Million Gallons), 2018-2024
Figure 16: North America Renewable Diesel Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in Million Gallons), 2025-2030
Figure 17: North America Renewable Diesel, Total Credits Generation (In Million MT), 2018-2024
Figure 18: North America Renewable Diesel, Credit Generation, (In Million MT), 2025-2030
Figure 19: North America Renewable Diesel, Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ) 2018-2024
Figure 20: North America Renewable Diesel, Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ) 2025-2030
Figure 21: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (In US$ Million), 2018-2024
Figure 22: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in US$ Million), 2025-2030
Figure 23: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2024
Figure 24: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Feedstock, 2018-2024
Figure 25: Average RIN Prices, 2018-2024
Figure 26: Average CFS Credit Prices, 2018-2024
Figure 27: Renewable Diesel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 28: Renewable Diesel Feedstock Potential Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2025-2030
Figure 29: North America Renewable Diesel, Feedstock Analysis
Figure 30: United States Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 31: Canada Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 32: United States Feedstocks, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 33: United States Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 34: Canada Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 35: United States Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 36: Canada Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 37: United States, Soybean Oil, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 38: United States, Corn Oil, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 39: United States, Canola Oil, Consumption (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 40: United States, Tallow, Consumption, (Biofuels vs Others) (1000 MT), 2018-2023
Figure 41: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Feedstock Requirement (1000 MT), 2018-2024
Figure 42: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (US$/MT), By Type, 2018-2024
Figure 43: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (US$/MT), By Type, 20242030
Figure 44: North America Renewable Diesel Production, by Technology, 2024
Figure 45: North America Renewable Diesel Production, by Technology, 2030
Figure 46: Renewable Diesel and Petroleum Diesel Prices, California, 2018-2024
Figure 47: Renewable Diesel and Crude Oil Prices, 2018-2024
Figure 48: Top 15 Companies' Renewable Diesel Capacity, 2030

List of Tables
Table 1: List of Abbreviations
Table 2: North America Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024
Table 3: North American Renewable Diesel, Production (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030
Table 4: State-wise Production of Renewable Diesel, 2024 and 2030 (in Million Gallons)
Table 5: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume, (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024
Table 6: North American Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Volume (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030
Table 7: North America Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value, (In US$ Million), 2018-2024
Table 8: North American Renewable Diesel, Market Size, By Value, (In US$ Million), 2025-2030
Table 9: North America Renewable Diesel, Imports (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024
Table 10: North American Renewable Diesel, Imports, (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030
Table 11: North America Renewable Diesel, Ending Stocks/Exports (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024
Table 12: North American Renewable Diesel, Cumulative Capacity (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030
Table 13: North American Renewable Diesel, Plants Start-Up Year, Location
Table 14: North America Renewable Diesel, Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (In Million Gallons), 2018-2024
Table 15: North America Renewable Diesel, Consumption by Clean Fuel Standard Market (In Million Gallons), 2025-2030
Table 16: North America Renewable Diesel, Credit Generation (In Million MT), 2018-2024
Table 17: North America Renewable Diesel, Credit Generation (In Million MT), 2025-2030
Table 18: North America Renewable Diesel, Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ) 2018-2024
Table 19: North America Renewable Diesel, Carbon Intensity (In gCO2e/MJ), 2025-2030
Table 20: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in US$ Million), 2018-2024
Table 21: North America Renewable Diesel, Estimated Incentives Generated by Clean Fuel Standard Market (in US$ Million), 2025-2030
Table 22: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Clean Fuel Standard Market, 2018-2024
Table 23: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Pathways Registered by Feedstock, 2018-2024
Table 24: North America Renewable Diesel, Number of Active Pathways Registered by Facilities
Table 25: Average RIN Prices, 2018-2024
Table 26: Average CFS Credit Prices (US$/MT), 2018-2024
Table 27: Renewable Diesel Feedstock Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Table 28: Renewable Diesel Feedstock Potential Requirement (In 1000 MT), 2025-2030
Table 29: Renewable Diesel Feedstock Analysis
Table 30: United States Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Table 31: Canada Feedstocks, Total Production (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Table 32: United States Feedstocks, Total Imports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Table 33: United States Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Table 34: Canada Feedstocks, Total Exports (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Table 35: United States Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Table 36: Canada Feedstocks, Total Consumption (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Table 37: United States, Feedstock Consumption Analysis (Biofuels vs Others, In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Table 38: North American Renewable Diesel, Estimated Feedstock Requirement, (In 1000 MT), 2018-2024
Table 39: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (US$/MT), By Type, 2018-2024
Table 40: North America Renewable Diesel Feedstock Prices (US$/MT), By Type, 2025-2030
Table 41: Renewable Diesel ASTM-D975 Specifications
Table 42: CGSB-3.517 Standards for Renewable Diesel
Table 43: Renewable Diesel and Diesel Fuel Prices (US$/Litre), 2018-2024
Table 44: Renewable Diesel and Crude Oil Prices (US$/Litre), 2018-2024
Table 45: Total Renewable Diesel Nameplate Capacity (Million Gallons) and Investment (US$ million) by 2030
Table 46: Shell plc, Company Details
Table 47: Shell plc, Operational Details
Table 48: Phillips 66, Company Details
Table 49: Phillips 66, Operational Details
Table 50: Darling Ingredients Inc., Company Details
Table 51: Darling Ingredients, Operational Details
Table 52: Valero Energy Corporation, Company Details
Table 53: Valero Energy Corporation, Operational Details
Table 54: Neste Oyj, Company Details
Table 55: Neste Oyj, Operational Details
Table 56: ENI Company Details
Table 57: ENI Operational Details
Table 58: Marathon Petroleum Corporation Company Details
Table 59: Marathon Petroleum Operational Details
Table 60: BP Plc Company Details
Table 61: BP Plc Operational Details
Table 62: Total Energies Company Details
Table 63: Total Energies Operational Details
Table 64: Fidelis New Energy Company Details
Table 65: Fidelis New Energy Operational Details
Table 66: North America Renewable Diesel Market Analysis, Plant Details

Companies Mentioned

  • BP plc
  • Darling Ingredients
  • ENI
  • Fidelis New Energy, LLC
  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation
  • Neste
  • Phillips 66
  • Shell plc
  • Total Energies
  • Valero Energy Corporation

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About the Renewable Diesel Market

Renewable diesel is a type of fuel derived from renewable sources such as vegetable oils, animal fats, and used cooking oil. It is chemically similar to petroleum-based diesel, but has a higher cetane number and lower sulfur content. Renewable diesel is used in the same way as traditional diesel, and can be blended with petroleum-based diesel. Renewable diesel is a cleaner-burning fuel than traditional diesel, and can reduce emissions of particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide. It is also more efficient than gasoline, and can be used in diesel engines without any modifications. Renewable diesel is becoming increasingly popular as a fuel source, as it is more sustainable than traditional diesel and gasoline. It is also becoming more cost-competitive, making it an attractive option for many consumers. Some companies in the renewable diesel market include Neste, Renewable Energy Group, and Renewable Fuels. Show Less Read more

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