U.S. Cabinets Market 2024-2033

Residential Remodeling Demand for Office, Laundry, and Garage Cabinets is Expected to Grow Faster Than Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Cabinets

This study analyzes the US cabinets industry. It presents historical demand data (2013, 2018 and 2023) and forecasts (2028 and 2033) by product (base, wall, tall, vanity, medicine cabinet, entertainment centers, store fixtures, corner & other cabinets), market (residential & commercial), application (new and remodeling), and by region and subregion. Demand for all products is measured in unit terms and value terms. Year by year historical market volatility is also addressed. The study also evaluates factors that will influence cabinets demand and profiles key industry participants, such as MasterBrand Cabinets, American Woodmark, and Cabinetworks Group.

Demand in volume terms for cabinets in the US is forecast to rise at an annual average rate of 1.1% to 135 million units in 2028. Real growth will be restrained by declines in conventional housing completions, as cabinets are typically installed at the end of home construction:

• Single-family completions are forecast to see minimal growth over the forecast period due to rising construction costs, which have reduced the affordability of new housing.
• Over the same span, multifamily starts are expected to decline significantly from the previous period.

Cabinet demand gains will mostly derive from ongoing residential renovation activity along with a rebound in commercial building construction, most notably for offices and hotels, which were significantly impacted by the pandemic during the historical period.

Market value will see a significant deceleration from the 2018-2023 period; most cabinet product prices will moderate following spikes that were precipitated by supply chain issues and high raw material costs. However, market value is expected to outpace real growth because of the increasing use of higher value cabinets with enhanced performance and aesthetic properties.

Above Average Demand Gains for Residential Remodeling of Office/Garage/Laundry Rooms

Residential remodeling demand for office, laundry, and garage cabinets is expected to grow faster than demand for kitchen and bathroom cabinets - the two most popular rooms to remodel. Demand for cabinets in these spaces is a reflection of the larger trend of homeowners seeking to maximize storage space. Homeowners will look to replace older cabinets not only for aesthetic reasons, but also to add floor-to-ceiling cabinetry to provide more storage and create a clutter-free environment.

Aesthetics & Cost Relative to Custom Cabinets Make Semicustom Cabinets Popular

Following a poor performance in real terms due to a combination of inflated pricing and limited availability because of supply chain issues, semicustom cabinets are expected to have an improved outlook through 2028. Semicustom cabinets are attractive to consumers because they cost less than custom cabinets, but have a similar appearance from a distance. In addition, consumers - particularly owners of single-family residences - opt for these cabinets to improve the functionality and enhance the appearance of their kitchens, bathrooms, and other rooms. For example, design trends that call for the development of master bathrooms with “his-and-her” vanities will employ semicustom cabinets to differentiate each vanity.

Historical Trends

Demand for cabinets is almost entirely dependent on trends in building construction and remodeling activity, with the most significant being:

• new housing construction (new home completions)
• single-family residential remodels, which often include the replacement of cabinets or the addition of a bathroom
• commercial building construction, especially buildings such as healthcare and educational facilities, along with office buildings and retail establishments

Other factors impacting demand for cabinets and the mix of products used include:

• the average size of homes and commercial buildings and number of rooms such as kitchens and bathrooms in new buildings that traditionally include cabinets
• the health of the economy and level of interest rates, both of which can impact the ability of consumers to afford new housing or renovations
• shifts in consumer taste such as a change in preference toward cabinets with a more natural aesthetic or a preference for freestanding furniture
• raw material costs and shifts in the types of cabinets used, which can impact trends in market value

Year-to-year volatility in unit demand for cabinets is primarily a function of cyclicality in the building construction industry. However, major fluctuations in the cost of materials used in the construction of cabinets (such as lumber) can result in volatility in value demand as well.

Materials Overview (Wood, Laminate, Metal, Plastic, Other)

Competition in the cabinets industry is mostly based on the primary material of construction, with most cabinets being either wood, laminate or metal products.

Unit demand for cabinets in the US is forecast to grow:

• Unit gains for metal cabinets will be supported by an improvement in commercial building construction, as cabinets made with these types of materials are used more intensively in the commercial market.
• Demand growth for cabinets made with materials used more intensively in the residential market - wood cabinets and those made with laminates - will be restrained by a moderation in housing completions following healthy gains during the 2018-2023 period.

Market value for all cabinets sold is expected to increase 2.4% per year, a significant slowdown as raw material costs moderate from the inflated levels seen in the previous forecast period. However, market value is still expected to outpace real growth because of the increasing use of higher value cabinet products with enhanced performance and aesthetic properties.

Markets Overview (Residential & Commercial)

The outlook for cabinets by market varies. Growth in the residential market will continue to normalize following the relatively fast demand gains of 2021 and 2022, while demand for commercial cabinets will accelerate as commercial building construction improves. Market value in both the residential and commercial markets will decelerate significantly as price growth returns to pre-pandemic rates.

The residential market accounts for the larger share of cabinet demand (with 87% of unit demand in 2023), due to the:

• greater number of residential buildings constructed each year compared to nonresidential buildings
• more intensive use of cabinets as a storage option in residences (especially single-family housing units)
• interest among homeowners in using cabinets as both an aesthetic and a functional element of a residence

Demand for residential cabinets is benefiting from:

• style trends that call for homes to have larger kitchens and more and larger bathrooms that increase the amount of space available for cabinetry
• manufacturer efforts to include more amenities - such as LED lighting, pull-out shelves, and racks - in kitchen cabinets that boost their average sale price
• homeowners looking to reduce clutter and improve the look of their homes by installing cabinets in such areas of a home as mudrooms, laundry rooms, and garages

Through 2028, the commercial market is expected to see faster gains in both value and volume term compared to residential, driven by a rebound in commercial building construction following pandemic-related declines, with additional gains supported by:

• commercial building owners increasingly engaging in kitchen and bathroom remodeling projects
• increasing construction of new educational, healthcare, office, and hospitality buildings, many of which use cabinets to provide secure and discreet storage space

Areas of Cabinet Installation (Kitchen, Bath, Other Areas)

Kitchen cabinets will continue to account for the majority of US cabinet demand in both unit and value terms, due to:

• the larger number of cabinets installed per kitchen compared to that of bathrooms and other rooms
• the generally larger size and additional included features of kitchen cabinets that allow these cabinets to be sold at higher price points
• high levels of consumer interest in installing more aesthetically pleasing (and thus expensive) cabinets
• the fact that most homeowners - as part of a kitchen renovation - tend to not only replace all cabinets in a kitchen but often install more cabinets during remodeling to increase storage space

Bathroom cabinets will see above average growth in value terms, supported by:

• design trends that call for homes to have more bathrooms, many of which will incorporate at least one cabinet for storage
• rising interest in larger bathrooms - such as master bathrooms with his-and-her sinks - that feature more and larger cabinets

Demand for other cabinets (e.g., cabinets installed in rooms other than the kitchen or bathroom) is expected to exhibit solid growth in both value and unit terms, due to a combination of rebounding commercial building construction and the large portion of other cabinets made with more expensive materials, such as metal and glass. The installation of garage cabinets - especially those made of higher value materials such as metal - will also contribute to value growth.

Building Construction Activity

Demand for cabinets is related primarily to building construction activity, especially construction activity in the residential market. Consequently, cyclicality in the construction industry can have a significant impact on the outlook for the cabinets market. Cabinets are essential components of many buildings, although the characteristics of the cabinets used may vary significantly depending on whether the structure is residential or commercial.

Real building construction expenditures are expected to rebound to an average of 1.3% per year through 2028:

• Residential building construction is also expected to rebound from the previous period, due to a return to more stable growth in single-family housing and renovation expenditures, after the surges in 2020 and 2021, and declines in 2022 and 2023 that resulted from a variety of pandemic-related trends.
• Commercial building construction is also anticipated to rebound from the pandemic-induced declines of the 2018-2023 period, thereby supporting the construction of lodging, healthcare, and industrial facilities.