Tobacco in South Africa - Research and Markets

While retail volume growth of tobacco in South Africa notably slowed in 2023, current value sales continued to soar. The country experienced high inflation during the year, with the price of some household essentials growing by double digits, resulting in consumers’ spending priorities shifting away from premium products. Therefore, retail demand for cigarettes continued to decline, although this was also linked to the strength of the illicit market.

The Tobacco in South Africa report offers a comprehensive guide to the size and shape of the market at a national level. It provides the latest retail sales data 2019-2023, allowing you to identify the sectors driving growth. It identifies the leading companies, the leading brands and offers strategic analysis of key factors influencing the market - be the new legislative, distribution or pricing issues. Forecasts to 2028 illustrate how the market is set to change.

Product coverage: Cigarettes, Cigarettes (Illicit+Legal), Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco, Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco.

Data coverage: Market sizes (historic and forecasts), company shares, brand shares and distribution data.

Why buy this report?

Get a detailed picture of the Tobacco market;
Pinpoint growth sectors and identify factors driving change;
Understand the competitive environment, the market’s major players and leading brands;
Use five-year forecasts to assess how the market is predicted to develop.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco in 2023: The big picture
2023 key trends
Competitive landscape
Retailing developments
What next for tobacco?

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation
Legislative overview
Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance
Minimum legal smoking age
Smoking prevalence
Tar levels
Health warnings
Plain packaging
Advertising and sponsorship
Point-of-sale display bans
Smoking in public places
Low ignition propensity (LIP) cigarette regulation
Flavoured tobacco product ban
Reduced harm
Vapour products

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

MARKET INDICATORS

Table 1 Number of Adult Smokers by Gender 2018-2023

MARKET DATA

Table 2 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2018-2023
Table 3 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2018-2023
Table 4 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 5 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2018-2023
Table 6 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2023-2028
Table 7 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2023-2028
Table 8 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2023-2028
Table 9 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2023-2028

DISCLAIMER

SOURCES

Summary 2 Research Sources

CIGARETTES IN SOUTH AFRICAKEY DATA FINDINGS

2023 DEVELOPMENTS

Despite growth of e-vapour products, cigarettes retains higher value share
Leading players slow production of combustibles
Declining demand driven by limited regulations for e-vapour products

PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Cigarette sales set to further decline due to pending legislation and cannabis popularity
Excise tax rises will adversely impact cigarette volumes, while e-vapour products will benefit from affordability
Diplomats limited in duty-free cigarette purchases

TAXATION AND PRICING

Taxation rates
Table 10 Taxation and Duty Levies 2018-2023
Average cigarette pack price breakdown
Summary 3 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

CATEGORY DATA

Table 11 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2018-2023
Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2018-2023
Table 13 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 14 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2018-2023
Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 20 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 21 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 23 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes: Volume 2018-2023
Table 24 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2023-2028
Table 25 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2023-2028
Table 26 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2023-2028
Table 27 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2023-2028
Table 28 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2023-2028
Table 29 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2023-2028
Table 30 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2023-2028
Table 31 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2023-2028
Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2023-2028

CIGARS, CIGARILLOS AND SMOKING TOBACCO IN SOUTH AFRICAKEY DATA FINDINGS

2023 DEVELOPMENTS

Shisha observes stricter excise tax, presenting users with affordability challenges
Corporación Habanos SA loses further share amid higher unit prices
Government places restrictions on smoking tobacco purchases from duty-free channels, with limitations in place

PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Limited demand for cigars driven by affluent consumers looking to indulge
Cigars from the Dominican Republic to gain popularity over Cuba’s premium lines
Further price rises likely for cigars following high excise tax increase

CATEGORY DATA

Table 33 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2018-2023
Table 34 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2018-2023
Table 35 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 36 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2018-2023
Table 37 Sales of Cigars by Size: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 38 Sales of Cigarillos by Price Platform 2018-2023
Table 39 NBO Company Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 40 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 41 NBO Company Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 42 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 43 NBO Company Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 44 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 45 NBO Company Shares of Smoking Tobacco: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 46 LBN Brand Shares of Smoking Tobacco: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 47 NBO Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 48 LBN Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 49 NBO Company Shares of Fine Cut Tobacco: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 50 LBN Brand Shares of Fine Cut Tobacco: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 51 Distribution of Cigars and Cigarillos by Format: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 52 Distribution of Smoking Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 53 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2023-2028
Table 54 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2023-2028
Table 55 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2023-2028
Table 56 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2023-2028

SMOKELESS TOBACCO, E-VAPOUR PRODUCTS AND HEATED TOBACCO IN SOUTH AFRICAKEY DATA FINDINGS

2023 DEVELOPMENTS

E-vapour products drives growth, while heated tobacco considered cessation aid for cigarette smokers
Excise tax on e-liquids comes into effect, increasing unit prices
Leading players personalise offerings to align with demographic’s preferences

PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

E-vapour products faces competition from international legislation and other smokeless offerings
Introduction of tobacco free and natural options set to change landscape over forecast period
Major players employ legal tactics to address South Africa’s advertising restrictions

CATEGORY INDICATORS

Table 57 Number of Adult Vapers 2018-2023

CATEGORY DATA

Table 58 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2018-2023
Table 59 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 60 Sales of E-Vapour Products by Category: Volume 2018-2023
Table 61 Sales of E-Vapour Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 62 Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: Volume 2018-2023
Table 63 Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 64 Sales of Heated Tobacco: Volume 2018-2023
Table 65 Sales of Heated Tobacco: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 66 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: Volume 2018-2023
Table 67 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 68 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: Value 2018-2023
Table 69 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Value Growth 2018-2023
Table 70 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: Value 2018-2023
Table 71 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2018-2023
Table 72 Sales of E-Liquids by Nicotene Strength: % Value 2020-2023
Table 73 NBO Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 74 LBN Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 75 NBO Company Shares of E-Vapour Products: % Value 2019-2023
Table 76 LBN Brand Shares of E-Vapour Products: % Value 2020-2023
Table 77 NBO Company Shares of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 78 LBN Brand Shares of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 79 NBO Company Shares of Heated Tobacco: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 80 LBN Brand Shares of Heated Tobacco: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 81 NBO Company Shares of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume 2019-2023
Table 82 LBN Brand Shares of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume 2020-2023
Table 83 Distribution of Smokeless Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 84 Distribution of E-Vapour Products by Format: % Value 2018-2023
Table 85 Distribution of Tobacco Heating Devices by Format: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 86 Distribution of Heated Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 87 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2023-2028
Table 88 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2023-2028
Table 89 Forecast Sales of E-Vapour Products by Category: Volume 2023-2028
Table 90 Forecast Sales of E-Vapour Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2023-2028
Table 91 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: Volume 2023-2028
Table 92 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume Growth 2023-2028
Table 93 Forecast Sales of Heated Tobacco: Volume 2023-2028
Table 94 Forecast Sales of Heated Tobacco: % Volume Growth 2023-2028
Table 95 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: Volume 2023-2028
Table 96 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume Growth 2023-2028
Table 97 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: Value 2023-2028
Table 98 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: % Value Growth 2023-2028
Table 99 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: Value 2023-2028
Table 100 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2023-2028

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