Strategic Analysis of Indonesia Commercial Vehicle Industry, Forecast to 2025

Annual Demand for Pickups, Light-medium-heavy Trucks, and Buses to Touch 742,000 Units by 2025

The commercial vehicle market in Indonesia has been shrinking from 2014 to 2016, with the market experiencing its lowest decline in 2016. Consequently, the production has also witnessed a decline over the years. Small Commercial Vehicles (SCVs) account for the largest segment in both sales and production. Japanese brands have the widest commercial vehicle distribution and service network in Indonesia. During the forecast period, the Indonesian commercial vehicle market is expected to witness a positive growth, despite challenges in terms of increased down payment rate, restriction on subsidized fuel, increasing price of raw materials, and global economic crisis. In all, 80% of Indonesia’s vehicle sales are financed, but in 2012, Indonesian Central Bank (ICB) raised the minimum down payment from 10% to 25% for CVs and 30% for passenger vehicles. This is likely to have a serious negative impact on overall vehicle sales in the country throughout the forecast period. However, OEMs can overcome these challenges and restraints due to the various trends supporting the growth of the commercial vehicle market. This includes stable politics and positive economic growth, Indonesia emerging as a manufacturing hub, positive implications of AFTA and AEC, government FDI promotions, and growth of alternative fuel commercial vehicles. Indonesia has been on the path of political stability and reformist democracy, contributing to the country’s significant GDP growth for over the last 4 years. The government projects a continued steady growth in the short to medium term.

Research Scope

This study aims to research, analyze, and forecast the commercial vehicles market in Indonesia during 2012-2025. The scope of the study is

• To provide a strategic overview of the commercial vehicles market, including key technology trends, market trends, and market drivers and restraints
• To provide market size for pickups, LCVs (SCVs, LTs), and MCVs, HCVs, and bus (LBs, MHBs) segments by OEM and sales breakdown for 2012–2025
• To provide forecasts for current and future roadmaps for commercial vehicles by segments for 2012–2025
• To provide competitor analysis, including competitive factors, competitor market shares, and product portfolio analysis and capabilities
• To provide a strategic analysis of the commercial vehicles market from an OEM’s perspective

Key Issues Addressed

• How is the business and economic environment as a whole impacting the sales of commercial vehicles?
• How are commercial vehicles classified and how is the market structured?
• Who are the market leaders and what are their market shares?
• What are the technology trends?
• Is there potential for growth within the market?