International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction 2. Building a Global Model: The Toolkit 3. The Evolution of Global Modeling 4. Introducing International Futures 5. The Future of Human Development 6. The Future of Socioeconomic Development 7. The Future of Sustainable Development 8. Feedbacks and Disruption: Sources of Uncertainty 9. Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System
