Future of the Estonian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Estonian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

"Future of the Estonian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023" provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

This report offers detailed analysis of the Estonian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -

The Estonian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Estonian defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns

Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Estonian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry

Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years

Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years

Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Estonian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Scope

Estonia is well known for its multi-vector foreign policy, with which it manages to maintain stable relations with all of its neighbors. It is a relatively peaceful country compared to other Central European nations, which encounter frequent turbulence. Estonia is also an active participant in the NATO Partnership for Peace Program. Growth in the Estonian defense market is primarily driven by the need to modernize the country’s defense arsenal and Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine, which had brought about the possibility of an armed conflict in Europe. The country’s participation in peacekeeping operations and counter terrorism also fueled defense expenditure growth during the historic period.

Over 2014-2018, Estonia’s defense expenditure increased from US$512.8 million in 2014 to US$621.8 million in 2018, registering a CAGR of 4.93%. According to the Estonian Long Term Defence Development Plan 2013-2022, the majority was directed towards the ongoing armed fleet modernization program, with specific focus on the modernization of equipment. In the last few years, although in limited volumes, Estonia has consistently imported advanced arms and ammunitions such as armored vehicles, missiles and sensors to strengthen its armed forces.

Reasons to Buy

This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Estonian defense industry market trends for the coming five years

The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

A deep qualitative analysis of the Estonian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts.

1. Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. About

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Current Market Scenario
3.1.1. Military Fleet Size
3.1.2. Procurement Programs
3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.2.1. Estonia’s annual defense expenditure to reach US$970.3 million by 2023
3.2.2. Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and peacekeeping missions to drive Estonia’s defense expenditure
3.2.3. The country’s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 2.8% over the forecast period
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.3.1. Capital expenditure’s share of the overall defense budget to increase considerably over the forecast period
3.3.2. Capital expenditure budget is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.4.1. Estonia’s homeland security budget is projected to increase at a CAGR of 2.42% over the forecast period
3.4.2. Cybercrime is the main driving factor behind homeland security expenditure
3.4.3. Estonia is at some risk from external and internal threats
3.4.4. Estonia faces a moderate threat from terrorist organizations
3.4.5. Estonia has a terrorism index score of 0.5
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.5.1. Estonia’s defense expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 8.76% over the forecast period
3.5.2. Estonia’s military expenditure is low when compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure
3.5.3. Estonia allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over 2018-2023

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. The country’s current need to modernize its armed forces will drive defense imports
4.1.2. The Netherlands was the leading supplier of arms to Estonia during the historic period; a trend that is expected to continue over the forecast period
4.1.3. Armored vehicles accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2013-2017
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Estonia does not export arms due to its under-developed domestic arms industry

5. Market Entry Strategy

5.1. Market Regulation
5.1.1. Estonia has not disclosed any offset obligations
5.1.2. Regulations relating to foreign direct investment (FDI) in the defense sector have not been disclosed by the government
5.2. Market Entry Route
5.2.1. Budgeting Process
5.2.2. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs

6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
6.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver them to Estonia

7. Business Environment and Country Risk

7.1. Economic Performance
7.1.1. GDP Per Capita
7.1.2. GDP, Current Prices
7.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Million)
7.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Million)
7.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Million)
7.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$
7.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
7.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
7.1.9. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.10. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.11. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.12. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.13. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Million)
7.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP
7.1.15. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output

8. Appendix

8.1. About
8.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Estonian Ground Forces Strength
Table 2: Estonian Air Force Strength
Table 3: Estonian Navy Strength
Table 4: Estonia - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs (US$ Million)
Table 5: Estonia - Future Procurement Programs
Table 6: Estonia Defense Expenditure (EUR Million and US$ Million), 2014-2023
Table 7: Estonia GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (%), 2014-2023
Table 8: Estonia Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Table 9: Estonia Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Million & US$ Million), 2014-2023
Table 10: Estonia Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Table 11: Estonia Homeland Security Expenditure (EUR Million and US$ Million), 2014-2023
Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2018
Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Table 14: Estonia - Top Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023
Table 15: Estonia Budget Formation Timetable
Table 16: Competitive Landscape of the Estonia Defense Industry

List of Figures

Figure 1: Estonia Defense Expenditure (EUR Million), 2014-2023
Figure 2: Estonia Defense Expenditure (US$ Million), 2014-2023
Figure 3: Estonia GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023
Figure 4: Estonia Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Figure 5: Estonia Capital Budget Expenditure (EUR Million),2014-2023
Figure 6: Estonia Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Million), 2014-2023
Figure 7: Estonia Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Figure 8: Estonia Homeland Security Budget (EUR Million), 2014-2023
Figure 9: Estonia Homeland Security Budget (US$ Million), 2014-2023
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Million), 2018 and 2023
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018
Figure 15: Estonia Defense Import Trend (US$ Million), 2013-2017 (TIV Values)
Figure 16: Estonia Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017
Figure 17: Estonia Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017
Figure 18: Estonia GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025
Figure 19: Estonia GDP, Current Prices (US$ Million), 2015-2025
Figure 20: Estonia Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Million), 2005-2014
Figure 21: Estonia Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Million), 2005-2014
Figure 22: Estonia Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Million), 2005-2012
Figure 23: Local Currency per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 24: Estonia Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 25: Estonia Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012
Figure 26: Estonia Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 27: Estonia Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 28: Estonia Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 29: Estonia Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 30: Estonia Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Million), 2005-2013
Figure 31: Estonia Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 32: Estonia Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014

Companies Mentioned (Partial List)

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:

BAE Systems

Hanwha Group

Saab

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Milrem AS

FLIR Systems

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Table of Contents

Companies Mentioned (Partial List)

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