The commercial aircraft market was valued at USD 96.83 billion in 2021, and it is projected to register a CAGR of over 5% during the forecast period (2022 - 2027).
The COVID-19 pandemic affected air passenger traffic globally in 2020, reducing flight activity and impacting airline cash flows. As a result, most airlines decided to cancel or defer their aircraft orders. The commercial aircraft OEMs trimmed their production rates as the pandemic decreased the demand for new jets. However, the commercial aviation industry recovered gradually in 2021, which led to a significant increase in aircraft deliveries compared to 2020. Airbus and Boeing together delivered 951 aircraft in 2021 compared to 723 aircraft in 2020. In addition, passenger traffic numbers are expected to recover by 2024. Thus, the commercial aviation industry outlook is expected to remain positive during the forecast period.
The aircraft fleet modernization and destination expansion plans of the airlines are leading to the gradual revival of aircraft demand, thereby strengthening the order books of aircraft OEMs. The existing order backlog with the aircraft OEMs is still high. By the end of 2021, Airbus reported a backlog of 7,082 jets. Boeing’s backlog was 5,136 aircraft. These numbers reveal that despite the reduction in demand from the airlines, the deliveries of commercial aircraft will continue at a healthy rate during the forecast period.
The demand for narrow-body aircraft is expected to recover faster than for wide-body aircraft as the domestic demand is expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels earlier than the international passenger demand. Also, the return of the 737 MAX into service in late 2020 will help the growth of the narrow-body segment.
The narrow-body aircraft segment held the largest market share in 2021. The success of the low-cost carrier business model has generated a massive demand for newer generation narrow-body aircraft in recent years due to their advantages like low cost of operation and fuel efficiency in short-haul routes. Technological advancements in newer generation narrow-body aircraft are making them possible to fly longer distances. Boeing’s B737 and Airbus A320 are two of the most sold aircraft families in aviation history. In 2021, Boeing delivered 263 narrow-body aircraft (43 aircraft delivered in 2020), while Airbus delivered 533 narrow-body aircraft (484 aircraft delivered in 2020). The B737 MAX issues have dampened Boeing’s narrow-body single-aisle jet orders and deliveries. However, with the aircraft coming back to service at the end of 2020, Boeing is again vying to increase its sales share in the segment. With the first deliveries of MC-21 and COMAC C919 models expected in 2022, the respective Russian and Chinese manufacturers plan to compete with the existing market giants like Airbus and Boeing in the narrow-body aircraft segment. Also, with the domestic demand recovering faster than the international passenger demand, the demand for narrow-body aircraft is expected to remain high during the forecast period.
Asia-Pacific is expected to generate a healthy demand for commercial aircraft during the forecast period. The growth in air passenger traffic is predominant in the region, and China and India are expected to be among the biggest aviation markets in the world during the forecast period. As a result of a huge drop in passenger traffic in the United States due to the COVID-19 pandemic, China overtook the United States to become the largest aviation market in 2020. China’s aviation industry also showed signs of recovery in 2020, driven by the recovery in domestic traffic. As a result, Chinese airlines are expected to take deliveries of new aircraft in the coming years. In 2020, China's three major state-owned airlines canceled the delivery of over 100 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus but kept every single order from COMAC in a show of support for the domestic manufacturer during the pandemic. On the other hand, the passenger traffic in India is also expected to recover fast, driven by the huge domestic demand. Since October 2021, the airlines in India have been allowed to operate domestic flights at their full capacity. The Indian low-cost carrier IndiGo took delivery of 44 aircraft in 2020, only two less than that of 2019. The addition of newer aircraft will help IndiGo to meet the demand in the recovering domestic market with more fuel-efficient aircraft. Similarly, the aviation industries in other countries of the region are also expected to recover faster than the countries in other regions due to a large domestic demand, thereby propelling the growth of the commercial aircraft market in Asia-Pacific in the years to come.
The commercial aircraft market is consolidated, with the two aircraft OEMs, Airbus SE and The Boeing Company, occupying a major chunk of the total market revenue. In addition, Embraer SA, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd, and Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation also have a significant share in the market. Several commercial aircraft manufacturers are currently focusing on the development of newer generation commercial aircraft, as the enforcement of new safety regulations and emission norms are demanding the integration of sophisticated subsystems and advanced technologies onboard the commercial aircraft. Also, airlines are looking for aircraft with better fuel efficiency and range, and the development of newer generation aircraft will help the OEMs to attract more airline customers in the years to come. For instance, in January 2022, Boeing launched a new Boeing 777-8 Freighter aircraft, which will be the largest, longest-range freighter with a 25% improvement in fuel efficiency. Qatar Airways is the launch customer of the Boeing 777-8 Freighter aircraft. Aircraft models like Irkut MC-21 and Comac C919 are expected to enter service by 2022, while other aircraft like CRAIC CR929 (first flight planned in 2025), Boeing 777X (deliveries expected to begin 2024), and the Embraer E175-E2 (expected to enter service by 2027) are under development. In this regard, aircraft OEMs and the players in the supply chain are collaborating to bring newer technologies into aircraft.
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The COVID-19 pandemic affected air passenger traffic globally in 2020, reducing flight activity and impacting airline cash flows. As a result, most airlines decided to cancel or defer their aircraft orders. The commercial aircraft OEMs trimmed their production rates as the pandemic decreased the demand for new jets. However, the commercial aviation industry recovered gradually in 2021, which led to a significant increase in aircraft deliveries compared to 2020. Airbus and Boeing together delivered 951 aircraft in 2021 compared to 723 aircraft in 2020. In addition, passenger traffic numbers are expected to recover by 2024. Thus, the commercial aviation industry outlook is expected to remain positive during the forecast period.
The aircraft fleet modernization and destination expansion plans of the airlines are leading to the gradual revival of aircraft demand, thereby strengthening the order books of aircraft OEMs. The existing order backlog with the aircraft OEMs is still high. By the end of 2021, Airbus reported a backlog of 7,082 jets. Boeing’s backlog was 5,136 aircraft. These numbers reveal that despite the reduction in demand from the airlines, the deliveries of commercial aircraft will continue at a healthy rate during the forecast period.
The demand for narrow-body aircraft is expected to recover faster than for wide-body aircraft as the domestic demand is expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels earlier than the international passenger demand. Also, the return of the 737 MAX into service in late 2020 will help the growth of the narrow-body segment.
Key Market Trends
The Narrow-body Aircraft Segment Held the Largest Market Share in 2021
The narrow-body aircraft segment held the largest market share in 2021. The success of the low-cost carrier business model has generated a massive demand for newer generation narrow-body aircraft in recent years due to their advantages like low cost of operation and fuel efficiency in short-haul routes. Technological advancements in newer generation narrow-body aircraft are making them possible to fly longer distances. Boeing’s B737 and Airbus A320 are two of the most sold aircraft families in aviation history. In 2021, Boeing delivered 263 narrow-body aircraft (43 aircraft delivered in 2020), while Airbus delivered 533 narrow-body aircraft (484 aircraft delivered in 2020). The B737 MAX issues have dampened Boeing’s narrow-body single-aisle jet orders and deliveries. However, with the aircraft coming back to service at the end of 2020, Boeing is again vying to increase its sales share in the segment. With the first deliveries of MC-21 and COMAC C919 models expected in 2022, the respective Russian and Chinese manufacturers plan to compete with the existing market giants like Airbus and Boeing in the narrow-body aircraft segment. Also, with the domestic demand recovering faster than the international passenger demand, the demand for narrow-body aircraft is expected to remain high during the forecast period.
Asia-Pacific is Expected to Generate a Healthy Demand for Commercial Aircraft During the Forecast Period
Asia-Pacific is expected to generate a healthy demand for commercial aircraft during the forecast period. The growth in air passenger traffic is predominant in the region, and China and India are expected to be among the biggest aviation markets in the world during the forecast period. As a result of a huge drop in passenger traffic in the United States due to the COVID-19 pandemic, China overtook the United States to become the largest aviation market in 2020. China’s aviation industry also showed signs of recovery in 2020, driven by the recovery in domestic traffic. As a result, Chinese airlines are expected to take deliveries of new aircraft in the coming years. In 2020, China's three major state-owned airlines canceled the delivery of over 100 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus but kept every single order from COMAC in a show of support for the domestic manufacturer during the pandemic. On the other hand, the passenger traffic in India is also expected to recover fast, driven by the huge domestic demand. Since October 2021, the airlines in India have been allowed to operate domestic flights at their full capacity. The Indian low-cost carrier IndiGo took delivery of 44 aircraft in 2020, only two less than that of 2019. The addition of newer aircraft will help IndiGo to meet the demand in the recovering domestic market with more fuel-efficient aircraft. Similarly, the aviation industries in other countries of the region are also expected to recover faster than the countries in other regions due to a large domestic demand, thereby propelling the growth of the commercial aircraft market in Asia-Pacific in the years to come.
Competitive Landscape
The commercial aircraft market is consolidated, with the two aircraft OEMs, Airbus SE and The Boeing Company, occupying a major chunk of the total market revenue. In addition, Embraer SA, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd, and Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation also have a significant share in the market. Several commercial aircraft manufacturers are currently focusing on the development of newer generation commercial aircraft, as the enforcement of new safety regulations and emission norms are demanding the integration of sophisticated subsystems and advanced technologies onboard the commercial aircraft. Also, airlines are looking for aircraft with better fuel efficiency and range, and the development of newer generation aircraft will help the OEMs to attract more airline customers in the years to come. For instance, in January 2022, Boeing launched a new Boeing 777-8 Freighter aircraft, which will be the largest, longest-range freighter with a 25% improvement in fuel efficiency. Qatar Airways is the launch customer of the Boeing 777-8 Freighter aircraft. Aircraft models like Irkut MC-21 and Comac C919 are expected to enter service by 2022, while other aircraft like CRAIC CR929 (first flight planned in 2025), Boeing 777X (deliveries expected to begin 2024), and the Embraer E175-E2 (expected to enter service by 2027) are under development. In this regard, aircraft OEMs and the players in the supply chain are collaborating to bring newer technologies into aircraft.
Additional Benefits:
- The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
- 3 months of analyst support
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Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION
3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 MARKET DYNAMICS
5 MARKET SEGMENTATION (Market Size and Forecast by Value - USD billion, 2018 - 2027)
6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- Airbus SE
- The Boeing Company
- Embraer SA
- Rostec
- ATR
- Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd
- Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation
Methodology
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