Celgene

The author explores Celgene’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2017–27. The author analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, pipeline potential, and financial performance.

Snapshot

• Overview – Celgene is set to experience a 1.3% CAGR during 2017–27 as its I&I products grow to offset strong generic headwinds to its oncology portfolio from 2022.


• Key themes – [1] Revlimid will drive strong mid-term growth of Celgene’s oncology portfolio, reaching $12.2bn in sales in 2022 [2] Celgene’s I&I portfolio will continue to make progress, becoming the company’s fastest-growing therapy area despite recent setbacks to I&I products [3] Celgene faces a severe patent cliff beginning in 2022, with generic launches for Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst set to erode $8.9bn from the company’s peak expiry portfolio revenue [4] Celgene’s outlook hinges on the success of its launch portfolio, which The author forecasts to add $5.6bn in new sales by 2027 and to fully offset the company’s declining expiry portfolio revenue.


• Out to 2022 – Over 2017–22, Celgene will experience an 8.6% CAGR, driven by blockbusters Revlimid, Pomalyst, and Otezla.


• Out to 2027 – Sales will peak in 2023 at $20.5bn before declining severely with the launches of Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst generics. However, product revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.3% over the forecast period as a whole.


• Pipeline – Celgene’s launch products will add $5.6bn in revenue out to 2027, offsetting losses from the company’s expiry portfolio. Additionally, significant potential value lies in the company’s key pipeline assets, including bb2121, lisocabtagene maraleucel, and BGB-A317.


• Lifecycle – Celgene faces a severe patent cliff in 2022, with expiry product revenue set to fall by over $8.9bn during 2022–27 due to losses of exclusivity for Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst. The company’s mid-term outlook hinges on its success in preventing early entry of Revlimid generics. Celgene continues to follow an aggressive deal-making strategy to supplement its pipeline and fill the revenue void expected from Revlimid’s patent expiry.


• Major events – Acquisitions of Juno and Impact; FDA issued refuse to file letter for ozanimod in multiple sclerosis; positive pivotal trial readouts for luspatercept; key catalysts expected in H2 2018 for pipeline drugs bb2121 and lisocabtagene maraleucel.

Model updates

• Upgraded Revlimid forecast.


• Upgraded Pomalyst forecast.


• Early generic entry for Abraxane in Q1 2022 in Europe.


• Ozanimod launch in relapsing multiple sclerosis delayed to Q1 2020.

Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Celgene’s portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecastssegmented by the following sections.

Quarterly Review
What were the major highlights from Celgene’s latest earnings call and quarterly performance?

Company context

• How is Celgene strategically poised out to 2027?


• What are Celgene’s key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?


• What are Celgene’s key catal.during the current year?

Facts and Figures

• What is Celgene’s forecasted sales performance out to 2027?


• What is the revenue trajectory of Celgene’s current top 10 products out to 2027?


• Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?


• What are the portfolio weightings of Celgene based on the lifecycle of its products?

Portfolio Analysis

• Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?


• What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Celgene’s important therapeutic markets?


• How is Celgene adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds?