4G to 5G: Worldwide Developments, Deployments, Revenue Models, & Forecasts 2019 to 2025

China is Expected to Achieve 5G Commercialisation by 2020

South Korea launched the world’s first nationwide 5G mobile networks in April 2019. The 5G deployment by SK Telecom, KT and LG Uplus was possible due to strong back up by the Korean government as it wants to stimulate stuttering economic growth. A few days later, Verizon wireless also launched 5G mobile services in selected markets of the US. Our research shows that a clear shift of focus towards 5G happened in 2017 and at the beginning of early 2018. According to our analysis of global 5G developments, we are highly optimistic of several other commercial 5G launches in 2019. This also confirms that the ecosystem required for 5G are well in place. The initial stage of industry specifications is available, and telcos are investing in Pre-5G equipment as well as confirming their trials.

Moreover, the availability of 5G spectrum in several countries supports the timing and scale of 5G deployments. Our research shows that 3.4-3.8 GHz is the primary band for initial 5G launches. 24.25-29.5 GHz is the second most preferred spectrum band after 3.4-3.8 GHz. China is expected to achieve 5G commercialisation by 2020. Moreover, China is also expected to become one of the leaders in 5G technology, standards, industries, and applications. The 5G ecosystem in China is growing at a commendable pace and it is poised to emerge as a tier-1 market in the global 5G industry. Adoption of 5G will differ depending on the market. As competitive operators will reach nationwide 5G coverage, adoption will accelerate.

To retain their high-value customer bases and keep a network edge, market leaders have to launch 5G first; challengers must minimize this edge and consider disruptive pricing strategies for pre-5G offerings.

Device strategies are important in order to drive upgrades: Ensuring the availability of a range of devices including popular, exclusive as well as low-cost devices that meet operator configuration requirements such as frequencies and backward compatibility with 2G, 3G, and 4G networks are fundamental. Samsung launched its Galaxy S10 5G smartphone in April 2018 in South Korea. It will be available in the US markets in May 2019. Verizon customers will be getting first chance to buy this device in the US. Mobile users in the UK will have to wait slightly longer. EE has partnered with Samsung to sell the Galaxy S10 5G in the UK and it plans to launch 5G in London, Cardiff, Birmingham, Belfast, Edinburgh, and Manchester by this summer. 5G device adoption can be maximised by offering low-cost devices, providing financing and annual handset upgrade options, limiting the availability of non-5G devices if appropriate (just like Jio 4G) and offering smartphones that target less technology-savvy customers. Pricing 5G at a premium can clearly be the right strategy in markets where demand is strong, thus boosting margins. However, premium pricing comes with downsides and risks, which cannot be that much effective in price-sensitive markets. Driving wide adoption of data-intensive services is crucial to a successful 5G strategy. New services must not only take advantage of 5G better speeds and performance but also encourage greater data usage to boost ARPS.

5G drives data usage, typically increasing consumption by 300%-1000% compared with 4G.

Moreover, 5G can provide an attractive alternative to fixed broadband; just how attractive depends on the market. Voice over 5G (Vo5G) will give a boost to voice services and counter OTT providers. However, operator approaches and plans for providing high-quality Vo5G services will vary. 5G will not only enrich experiences for existing applications but also enable new IoT use cases which cannot be enabled by 4G, which helped launch the app revolution and breathed a second wind into the largest internet companies. 5G will serve and change how we think about connectivity for home, enterprises and other industry verticals.

Let’s check a few real use cases operators are working upon.

5G Real-Time Traffic Monitoring System:

NTT Docomo and Sumitomo Electric are developing a real-time traffic monitoring system. The real-time collection and delivery of traffic information leverage high-definition sensors connected via a 5G mobile communications system for advanced driving support. The sensors are connected via a 5G network to send real-time traffic information and then fed back to drivers and pedestrians. 5G's ultra-high data rate, ultra-high data capacity, and ultralow latency enable the traffic monitoring system to collect and analyse high-definition data on traveling vehicles and their surrounding environments, such as pedestrians and road conditions. The data is collected with HD cameras, LiDAR sensors that use laser light to measure the distances and positions of targets and millimeter-wave sensors that use radio waves to measure distances and positions.

Virtual Tourism: TIM last year demonstrated a virtual reality visit in real-time using trial 5G network. During the demonstration, from the Polytechnic of Turin, it was possible to visit Piazza Carlo Alberto although it is located at a distance of several kilometres. An avatar guide accompanied the visitor - equipped with a viewer and sensors - in the historic square, giving the opportunity to experience the capabilities of virtual reality. An immersive experience obtained through the potential of a 5G network that made immediate communication between the guide, virtual environment, and the visitor.

Scope of the report [What you will achieve from this report?]

• This report examines 4G to 5G planning by operators, network deployment considerations, product, and pricing strategies and 5G adoption trends as well as drivers for market growth. Highlighting what works and what doesn’t - based on the experience of commercial operators - it uncovers the pain points and the keys to success for 5G service providers worldwide.
• 4G to 5G technology roadmaps, 5G network deployment update, and market opportunity. This report outlines why 5G has been getting a strong response from leading operators. It details the standards and evolutionary roadmap as well as Vo5G readiness and gives the current global deployment status by frequency band. Also included is the analyst's assessment of the global market opportunity for 5G adoption.
• 5G business models and impact on operator KPIs. This report offers a comparative analysis of lessons learned from 5G deployments in the US and South Korea, looking at network deployments, adoption, devices, pricing, data usage, ARPS (including an in-depth study of South Korea), services, Vo5G, and positioning against fixed broadband.
• Analysis of leading and emerging 5G markets. Five in-depth country case studies analysing the evolution from 4G to 5G, and a comparative study of how operators have competed in terms of network deployments, pricing, and positioning. The countries covered are South Korea, Japan, China, India, and the US.
• The report offers a comprehensive examination of lessons learned and best practices from initial 5G deployments in South Korea and the US to help executives develop business plans and product development plans effectively as well as optimise resource allocation and return on investment.
• This report provides a five-year forecast of 5G demand to enable executives to effectively position their companies for emerging trends in demand for their products and growth opportunities.

Key Questions Answered in the Report
1. How leading operators are planning for their transition from 4G to 5G?
2. What are the various pre/post-deployment 5G issues operators are facing, and how to work around them?
3. What are the key global 5G operators' future strategies?
4. What should be your right timing for 5G deployment?
5. What would be the ideal strategies for late 5G entrants?
6. How can operators in under-developed/developing economies turn the very disadvantages into their strengths vis-à-vis 5G deployments?
7. What role 4G will play until 2025 and beyond?
8. Which key verticals 5G is going to light in near & distant future?
9. Why 5G is being discussed so much without any actual demand in the short term?
10. How much 4G-enabled growth opportunity the analyst speculates for period 2018-2025?
11. Who are the leading 5G vendors? What are their product portfolios?
12. How is the response for commercial 5G networks in the US and South Korea?
13. How operators in the US and South Korea are positioning their 5G networks?
14. What is the strategy for 5G in Japan, China, and India?
15. What will the 5G-enabled growth opportunity be during 2019-2025 across consumer, enterprise and industry verticals?
16. What are our recommendations for effective business collaborations amongst operators and vendors?

Key Findings of the Report
1. South Korea launched the world’s first nationwide 5G mobile networks in April 2019.
2. Verizon Wireless launched 5G mobile services in selected markets of the US in April 2019.
3. The USA and South Korea have established themselves as the early leaders in 5G. With large scale 5G roll out, South Korea is currently leading the 5G marketplace both globally and in the Asia Pacific region. Although, South Korea is a mature telecom market, the developing and underdeveloped markets in Asia and Africa also hold huge business potential for 5G.
4. 3.4-3.8 GHz is the primary band for initial 5G launches. 24.25-29.5 GHz is the second most preferred spectrum band after 3.4-3.8 GHz.
5. 70% of the operators are expected to launch 5G by 2023. MNOs delaying 5G deployments will face unbeatable competition from 5G players after 2021. 5G is expected to account for 10% of the total mobile subscription globally in 2023.
6. China is expected to achieve 5G commercialisation by 2020. Moreover, China is also expected to become one of the leaders in 5G technology, standards, industries, and applications. The 5G ecosystem in China is growing at a commendable pace and it is poised to emerge as tier 1 market in the global 5G industry.
7. In India, mobile broadband would be an important application for 5G, which would also bring down the cost of data per GB. Moreover, 5G will help improve ARPU/ ARPS for bleeding telecom companies.
8. According to our survey among urban consumers in India, more than 40% of smartphone users will change either immediately or within 6 months to a service provider that launches 5G. This emphasizes the need and wants for faster, more capable telecom networks that can address the rapidly growing data traffic in India.
9. As telecom operators move towards 5G, they are looking to simplify operations and reduce time to market for new functionalities.
10. 5G Network Coverage, Efficiency Enhancing Solutions (such as small cells), Commercial Contracts, Product/Service Portfolio (new 5G specific scalable use cases), and R&D/ Patents are the top five areas that will have the maximum impact on operator's RoI.
11. Samsung launched its Galaxy S10 5G smartphone in April 2018 in South Korea. It will be available in the US markets in May 2019.
12. The ever-growing demand for 4K/ 8K video, AR gaming, and VR will be the initial drivers of 5G in the consumer segment in the next 5 years. Video (including 4K/ 8K) will account for 60% of 5G data traffic by 2025.
13. 5G subscriber base is projected to cross 1.5 billion mark in 2025. Asia will be the leading 5G market by 2025, accounting for more than 50% of the global 5G market. Europe is expected to account for close to 17% of total 5G subscriptions in 2025.
14. Telecom operators will achieve 5G revenues worth US$ 502 billion in 2025, with North America and Asia-Pacific commanding more than 60% market in terms of revenue. Europe will account 22% revenue share by 2025, while Latin America and Africa & Middle East will account for 11% and 5%, respectively.
15. Retail, smart City Logistics and Transportation, Healthcare, Entertainment, and Manufacturing will be early adopters of 5G technology.