China's Autonomous Vehicle Market, Forecast to 2025

Autonomous Vehicle Sales in China are Expected to Reach 1.5 Million Units by 2025

The Chinese automotive market is likely to shift into a higher intelligence level by 2025. The L1 and L2 autonomous vehicles are currently available in the market, with a total sales of 0.3 million units in 2018. Going forward, the market is likely to experience a positive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.4%, reaching 1.5 million unit shipments across L1, L2, L3 and L4 autonomous vehicle technology in China in the long term. In the passenger car segment, 96.5% of autonomous vehicles are L1 and L2 private cars.

Autonomous vehicle technology will see more adoption in passenger cars business segments such as public taxis and mobility service vehicles. Public taxis and other mobility service vehicles will account for 25.6% of the passenger car market share in 2025.

The China FAW Group Corporation is the leading domestic automotive OEM in terms of autonomous vehicle technology development. It is likely to pioneer L4 autonomous vehicle technology and achieve commercialization of the same in 2020.

In addition, SAIC Motor Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd. are likely to commercialize the L4 autonomous vehicles between 2022 and 2024, in China. NIO Inc., a new start-up, is another key notable participant in the market.

Baidu Inc., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., and Tencent Holdings Ltd. are the key notable technology companies that provide software and database platforms to support automotive OEMs in China. Apollo, Baidu’s open platform, and Alibaba’s intelligent expressway (expected to be ready by 2038), and Tencent’s cybersecurity and vehicle connectivity platform can enhance the autonomous vehicle software features in China.
The Chinese government is expected to introduce official regulations on the autonomous vehicle by 2023. The demonstration bases for autonomous vehicles in Shanghai, Beijing, and Chongqing will be further expanded in China between 2019 and 2020.

Research Scope

The aim of this study is to evaluate the autonomous driving market in China. The study identifies the key autonomous driving participants and their market activities in the automotive industry. The value chain of the market is also discussed in this study.

Key Features

• To provide a strategic review of the autonomous vehicle ecosystem and market involving the value chain and key market trends in China.
• To analyse the hardware and software applied in autonomous vehicles.
• To offer an overview of the autonomous vehicle demonstration base in China.
• To analyse the key participants in the autonomous vehicle market, including partnerships, key business segments, and key technologies.
• To evaluate the present market size and growth opportunities for stakeholders.

Key Issues Addressed

• Where in China are the autonomous vehicle demonstration bases located?
• What are the market trends that influence the development of the autonomous vehicle market?
• What will the revenue of the autonomous vehicle market be from 2018 to 2025?
• What are the market drivers and restraints influencing the development of the autonomous vehicle market?
• What are the key value chain structures of the autonomous vehicle market?

Key Conclusion

The research also provides definitions of the different levels of autonomous vehicles as per the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), market drivers and restraints, a market overview, an overview of autonomous driving vehicle demonstration bases in China, a technology analysis, and forecasts and trends. It identifies the key autonomous driving technology participants in China, and analyses the growth opportunities. The study closes with conclusions and a future outlook.