After demonstrating surprising resilience since the invasion in February, eastern CIS markets will enjoy solid performance in 2023 as well, one of the few regions globally experiencing consistent growth into next year.
While the western CIS markets of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus will remain under extreme duress in 2023, in eastern CIS markets, high commodity prices will again allow for strong budgets, underpinning heightened public spending, with a focus on social support, healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Consumer spending will perform strongly again, though sticky, high inflation will weigh on sentiment into early 2023.
Risks are considerable, however, as the war in Ukraine and energy war with Europe will stay at a highly tense level for the rest of the year and into 2023, raising the likelihood of extreme Russian retaliation, e.g., ending the grain export deal, use of an unconventional weapon, or cuts to oil/gas exports. Kazakhstan, in particular, could become a major casualty of the energy war, with Russia cutting off its oil exports. Multinational companies need to make broad, strategic decisions related to supply chains and financing to operate effectively in the CIS region.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- CIS Region in the Global Context
- CIS Outlook for 2023
- Drivers of the Outlook in 2023
- Business Implications and Actions to Take
- Demand Dynamics Outlook
- Operating Conditions Outlook
- Markets in Focus
- Additional Resources
Methodology
The author’s strengths include global management topics and country level analysis tailored for a senior executive audience. The research focuses on cross-industry implications of macroeconomic, geopolitical risk, and emerging trends that impact the strategic decisions of business decisionmakers.
Research analysts:
Almost all have advanced degrees in economics, international affairs, or political science, and are multilingual. Researchers have lived and worked in the markets they cover and are based in regional hubs close to market
- Analysts cover:
- Economic trends and indicators (near-term volatility, long-term forecasts); political developments (election results, post-election policy, regulations, spending, monetary policy), outlook for market demand and cost of doing business, upside and downside scenarios, MNC investment sentiment, business practices
- Quality control:
- Research workflows supported by standard, proprietary process maps, tools and templates for analysis and writing, forecast admin tool, and content management system
- Research managers pressure-test quality, consistency and usefulness of outlooks, scenarios, and suggested actions
- Analyst interactions with clients (>1500/year) provide ongoing feedback loops from on-the-ground operators to c-suite
- Research inputs include:
- Primary: Multinational and local executives (interviews, surveys, analyst consultations), international and local experts (NGO officials, academics, consultants), international and local government officials
- Secondary: Local-language news and international media, public/official data sources, government/association reports, Bloomberg
- Research outputs include:
- Forecast economic data, country/region outlooks and scenarios, market intelligence reports (monthly/quarterly for key countries as well as occasional Market Spotlights), as-needed analyst commentary alerts
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