While the region weathered rising macroeconomic pressures through H1 2022 and growth outperformed, persistently high inflation and easing external demand will have a profound impact on domestic consumption and output, driving Central European markets into a contraction through H1 2023.
Suspension of gas flows from Russia through the Nord Stream 1 and Yamal pipelines will further add to the existing operational challenges and likely require some form of gas rationing in the upcoming quarters, which will further weigh on economic performance. While inflationary pressures should begin to gradually subside in 2023, headline inflation will remain elevated and well above average EU levels, continuing to bite into real incomes and preventing a more substantial recovery of domestic consumption through H2 2023.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Central Europe in the Global Context
- Energy Outlook in Central Europe
- Energy Supply Outlook
- Business Implications and Actions to Take
- Demand Dynamics Outlook
- Operating Conditions Outlook
- Markets in Focus
- Opportunities in Europe
- Elections in Europe
- Additional Resources
Methodology
The author’s strengths include global management topics and country level analysis tailored for a senior executive audience. The research focuses on cross-industry implications of macroeconomic, geopolitical risk, and emerging trends that impact the strategic decisions of business decisionmakers.
Research analysts:
Almost all have advanced degrees in economics, international affairs, or political science, and are multilingual. Researchers have lived and worked in the markets they cover and are based in regional hubs close to market
- Analysts cover:
- Economic trends and indicators (near-term volatility, long-term forecasts); political developments (election results, post-election policy, regulations, spending, monetary policy), outlook for market demand and cost of doing business, upside and downside scenarios, MNC investment sentiment, business practices
- Quality control:
- Research workflows supported by standard, proprietary process maps, tools and templates for analysis and writing, forecast admin tool, and content management system
- Research managers pressure-test quality, consistency and usefulness of outlooks, scenarios, and suggested actions
- Analyst interactions with clients (>1500/year) provide ongoing feedback loops from on-the-ground operators to c-suite
- Research inputs include:
- Primary: Multinational and local executives (interviews, surveys, analyst consultations), international and local experts (NGO officials, academics, consultants), international and local government officials
- Secondary: Local-language news and international media, public/official data sources, government/association reports, Bloomberg
- Research outputs include:
- Forecast economic data, country/region outlooks and scenarios, market intelligence reports (monthly/quarterly for key countries as well as occasional Market Spotlights), as-needed analyst commentary alerts
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