Axial Spondyloarthritis: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028
Summary
Axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) is a disease group encompassing both ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA). These conditions are chronic, autoinflammatory disorders of the sacroiliac joints and spine, an area also known as the axial skeleton. The disease is typically diagnosed in young adulthood to middle age (16-45 years) and has a seven- to nine-year delay of diagnosis. The axSpA market has historically been reliant on anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapies that have been available for over a decade, and the pipeline for drugs in late-stage development was lacking, but recent developments have led to research on novel treatment mechanisms. This will be vital in treating the underdiagnosed nr-axSpA population.
In January 2016, Novartis gained approval for Cosentyx (secukinumab), the first-in-class interleukin (IL)-17 inhibitor that was the first new biologic treatment approved for AS that was not an anti-TNF. Moreover, biosimilars of currently marketed anti-TNF biologics recently entered the market, with Remicade (infliximab) biosimilars first marketed in 2015 in Europe. This is likely to result in a highly competitive market for patients who have failed multiple non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Competition will intensify with the arrival of new anti-IL-17 treatments and a new class of therapies in development, Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors, which will offer a more convenient form of administration. With existing unmet need for all patients, particularly nr-axSpA patients, being diagnosed in a timely manner and having treatment options that are not solely subcutaneously or intravenously administered, axSpA represents an increasingly important rheumatology sector for drug developers.
The author estimates that sales of drugs in the axSpA market were approximately $3.1B in 2018 in the 7MM. The US was the largest market, with approximately $2.3B in drug sales, which represented 75.3% of the total axSpA market. The 5EU market contributed $705M in sales and Japan contributed sales of $54M in 2018.
Global sales in the axSpA market are expected to grow to $3.6B by 2028, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.5% from 2018-2028. the author forecasts the US to grow to $2.7B (74.7% of global sales), the 5EU to grow to $850M (23.9% of global sales), and Japan to shrink to $52M (1.5% of global sales) over the next 10 years.
Key Questions Answered
Over the forecast period, the axSpA market will see the entry of pipeline agents such as the interleukin 17 inhibitors and the JAK inhibitors, the sales of which will offset the loss of sales caused by the entry of biosimilars. How do products compete against each other? Which of these drugs will have the highest peak sales, and why?
Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) interviewed by the author have indicated that there are several unmet needs within the axSpA indication. What are the main unmet needs in this market? How can the pharmaceutical industry address these needs? To what degree will the therapies under development fulfill these unmet needs?
The axSpA market is likely to become a turbulent space throughout the forecast period and beyond. Which companies are set to be major players in axSpA during the forecast period?
Key Highlights
The greatest driver of growth in the global axSpA market will be the launches of five pipeline therapies during the forecast period. The entry of these anticipated therapies, including Eli Lilly’s Taltz and Pfizer’s tofacitinib, will be subject to moderate uptake among the AS and nr-axSpA populations.
The main barrier to growth in the axSpA market will be the patent expiry, and subsequent launch of biosimilars of Humira (adalimumab) in the US, and the genericization of tofacitinib in the latter half of the forecast across the 7MM.
The most important unmet needs in axSpA are the need for speedier diagnosis and convincing patients to start biologic therapy. The former is being addressed by the increasingly routine use of MRI instead of X-ray to diagnose patients, and the greater understanding and awareness of nr-axSpA. The latter is impacted by poor patient education about their disease and a fear of subcutaneous/intravenous injection.
Factors driving a low biologic therapy treatment rate include some negative or fearful attitudes towards subcutaneously/intravenously administered therapeutics, nr-axSpA patients not perceiving themselves as severe enough to warrant biologic treatment, and a high ACOT for some biologic therapies currently on the market and in late-stage development.
Scope
Reasons to buy
The report will enable you to:
Summary
Axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) is a disease group encompassing both ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA). These conditions are chronic, autoinflammatory disorders of the sacroiliac joints and spine, an area also known as the axial skeleton. The disease is typically diagnosed in young adulthood to middle age (16-45 years) and has a seven- to nine-year delay of diagnosis. The axSpA market has historically been reliant on anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapies that have been available for over a decade, and the pipeline for drugs in late-stage development was lacking, but recent developments have led to research on novel treatment mechanisms. This will be vital in treating the underdiagnosed nr-axSpA population.
In January 2016, Novartis gained approval for Cosentyx (secukinumab), the first-in-class interleukin (IL)-17 inhibitor that was the first new biologic treatment approved for AS that was not an anti-TNF. Moreover, biosimilars of currently marketed anti-TNF biologics recently entered the market, with Remicade (infliximab) biosimilars first marketed in 2015 in Europe. This is likely to result in a highly competitive market for patients who have failed multiple non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Competition will intensify with the arrival of new anti-IL-17 treatments and a new class of therapies in development, Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors, which will offer a more convenient form of administration. With existing unmet need for all patients, particularly nr-axSpA patients, being diagnosed in a timely manner and having treatment options that are not solely subcutaneously or intravenously administered, axSpA represents an increasingly important rheumatology sector for drug developers.
The author estimates that sales of drugs in the axSpA market were approximately $3.1B in 2018 in the 7MM. The US was the largest market, with approximately $2.3B in drug sales, which represented 75.3% of the total axSpA market. The 5EU market contributed $705M in sales and Japan contributed sales of $54M in 2018.
Global sales in the axSpA market are expected to grow to $3.6B by 2028, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.5% from 2018-2028. the author forecasts the US to grow to $2.7B (74.7% of global sales), the 5EU to grow to $850M (23.9% of global sales), and Japan to shrink to $52M (1.5% of global sales) over the next 10 years.
Key Questions Answered
Over the forecast period, the axSpA market will see the entry of pipeline agents such as the interleukin 17 inhibitors and the JAK inhibitors, the sales of which will offset the loss of sales caused by the entry of biosimilars. How do products compete against each other? Which of these drugs will have the highest peak sales, and why?
Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) interviewed by the author have indicated that there are several unmet needs within the axSpA indication. What are the main unmet needs in this market? How can the pharmaceutical industry address these needs? To what degree will the therapies under development fulfill these unmet needs?
The axSpA market is likely to become a turbulent space throughout the forecast period and beyond. Which companies are set to be major players in axSpA during the forecast period?
Key Highlights
The greatest driver of growth in the global axSpA market will be the launches of five pipeline therapies during the forecast period. The entry of these anticipated therapies, including Eli Lilly’s Taltz and Pfizer’s tofacitinib, will be subject to moderate uptake among the AS and nr-axSpA populations.
The main barrier to growth in the axSpA market will be the patent expiry, and subsequent launch of biosimilars of Humira (adalimumab) in the US, and the genericization of tofacitinib in the latter half of the forecast across the 7MM.
The most important unmet needs in axSpA are the need for speedier diagnosis and convincing patients to start biologic therapy. The former is being addressed by the increasingly routine use of MRI instead of X-ray to diagnose patients, and the greater understanding and awareness of nr-axSpA. The latter is impacted by poor patient education about their disease and a fear of subcutaneous/intravenous injection.
Factors driving a low biologic therapy treatment rate include some negative or fearful attitudes towards subcutaneously/intravenously administered therapeutics, nr-axSpA patients not perceiving themselves as severe enough to warrant biologic treatment, and a high ACOT for some biologic therapies currently on the market and in late-stage development.
Scope
- Overview of axSpA including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines.
- Annualized axSpA therapeutics market revenue, annual cost of therapy and treatment usage pattern data from 2018 and forecast for ten years to 2028.
- Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the axSpA therapeutics market.
- Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs.
- Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global axSpA therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy
The report will enable you to:
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global axSpA therapeutics market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global axSpA therapeutics market in future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Track drug sales in the global axSpA therapeutics market from 2018-2028.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.
Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
2 Axial Spondyloarthritis: Executive Summary
3 Introduction
4 Disease Overview
5 Epidemiology
6 Disease Management
7 Competitive Assessment
8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
9 Pipeline Assessment
10 Current and Future Players
11 Market Outlook
List of Tables
List of Figures
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- AbbVie
- Novartis
- UCB
- Janssen
- Amgen
- Eli Lilly
- Pfizer
- Kyowa Hakko Kirin
