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Disease Analysis: Alzheimer's Disease

  • Report

  • 87 Pages
  • June 2021
  • Region: Global
  • Citeline
  • ID: 4895485
Disease Overview

Alzheimer’s disease is an irreversible, progressive, neurodegenerative disease that slowly affects memory, cognition, and function. It is a continuum of pathological changes in the brain that begin well before clinical symptoms emerge. The hallmark abnormalities of Alzheimer’s disease are beta-amyloid deposits and tau tangles in the brain, while it is also characterized by the loss of neuronal connections. These pathological changes are thought to occur years in advance of the onset of dementia in patients with Alzheimer’s disease. Studies indicate that people aged 65 years and over survive an average of four to eight years after a diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease, yet some live as long as 20 years or more, indicating the slow, insidious progression of the disease.

Latest Key Takeaways
  • The publisher estimates that in 2018, there were 74.5 million prevalent cases of Alzheimer’s disease in adults aged 65 years and older worldwide, and forecasts that number to increase to 102.5 million prevalent cases by 2027.
  • The US Alzheimer’s disease market only includes four franchised products that are well established. The acetylcholinesterase class of drugs will continue to dominate the treatment of mild Alzheimer’s disease, while NMDA receptor antagonist memantine is used primarily as an add-on or second-line therapy in more severe disease stages.
  • Generic erosion has led to the contraction of the overall Alzheimer’s disease market. This may be slightly offset by increased prevalence owing to an aging population and advances in screening for the earliest phases of Alzheimer’s disease that may lead to improved diagnosis rates, with potential growth also possible from the anticipated anti-amyloid antibodies.
  • Biogen’s unexpected decision to pursue FDA approval for its previously discontinued amyloid-targeting biologic aducanumab in Alzheimer’s disease was met with skepticism given the surprising nature of the turnaround. Despite a promotional attitude from the FDA neurology division’s clinical team, it is by no means clear that the drug will skate through the FDA approval process since an advisory committee meeting came up negative. Even if the drug is approved, it is uncertain how patients, physicians, and payers might weigh the potential cost of the drug against what could be viewed as incremental efficacy. Regardless, the approval of an anti-amyloid antibody has the potential to transform the Alzheimer’s disease market.
  • In late 2019, China granted a conditional approval for GV-971, an oligosaccharide derived from brown algae, representing the first novel drug approved for Alzheimer’s disease in nearly two decades.
  • Results from Phase III clinical trials for beta amyloid-targeting antibodies lecanemab and gantenerumab are not expected until 2022.
  • The likelihood of approval of a Phase III Alzheimer’s disease asset is less than 20%, compared to nearly 50% in the overall neurology space.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
  • Latest key takeaways

DISEASE BACKGROUND
  • Definition
  • Symptoms
  • Risk factors
  • Patient segmentation

TREATMENT
  • Cholinesterase inhibitors are recommended for mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease
  • Memantine is reserved for moderate-to-severe disease
  • Despite lacking efficacy, cholinesterase inhibitors are still used off-label for MCI

EPIDEMIOLOGYMARKETED DRUGSPIPELINE DRUGS
KEY REGULATORY EVENTS
  • Nuplazid Complete Response Letter For Dementia Psychosis Driven By Effectiveness Concerns In Subgroups
  • Acadia's Nuplazid Hits A Review Roadblock, But Not A CRL (For Now)
  • Aducanumab Approval Decision Delayed: Could This Be Good News?
  • Aducanumab Filed In Japan Despite Recent US Setback
  • Biogen’s Aducanumab: Why Accelerated Approval Might, And Might Not, Be An Option For US FDA
  • Biogen’s Aducanumab Falls Hard At Panel Review, Leaving US FDA In A Tight Spot
  • What Did US FDA Do Wrong In Its Review Of Aducanumab? AdCom Members Have A List
  • Biogen’s Aducanumab: One Positive Phase III Trial Is Good Enough For Demonstrating Efficacy, US FDA Says
  • US FDA Gives Biogen Big Hand In Effort To Get Its Alzheimer’s Treatment On The Market
  • Adu-CAN-umab? Reading The Tea Leaves For Biogen’s US Filing For Alzheimer’s Drug
  • Biogen/Eisai Hit ‘Send’ On High Stakes BLA For Aducanumab In Alzheimer’s Disease

PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
CLINICAL TRIAL LANDSCAPE
  • Sponsors by status
  • Sponsors by phase
  • Recent events

LICENSING AND ASSET ACQUISITION DEALS
  • Core One Takes In Akome Biotech In All-Stock Deal
  • Italfarmaco To Market Luye’s Dementia Patch Product In Four EU Nations
  • Lilly Broadens Its CNS Reach With Rigel RIPK1 Deal
  • Grifols Buys Remaining Interest In Alkahest It Didn’t Own Already
  • Roche Partners With UCB On Anti-Tau Alzheimer’s Drug

DRUG ASSESSMENT MODEL
  • Genericized symptomatic treatments
  • Disease-modifying candidates
  • Other pipeline drugs

MARKET DYNAMICS
FUTURE TRENDS
  • Generic therapies will continue to dominate the Alzheimer’s disease market
  • Mixed results from aducanumab may not deter approval

CONSENSUS FORECASTS
RECENT EVENTS AND ANALYST OPINION
  • AR1001 for Alzheimer’s Disease (March 29, 2021)
  • Atuzaginstat for Alzheimer’s Disease (February 15, 2021)
  • Troriluzole for Alzheimer’s Disease (January 18, 2021)
  • LY3002813 for Alzheimer’s Disease (January 11, 2021)
  • Masitinib for Alzheimer’s Disease (December 16, 2020)
  • Azeliragon for Alzheimer’s Disease (December 15, 2020)
  • Aducanumab for Alzheimer’s Disease (November 6, 2020)
  • Aducanumab for Alzheimer’s Disease (November 4, 2020)
  • Semorinemab for Alzheimer’s Disease (September 23, 2020)
  • Aducanumab for Alzheimer’s Disease (August 7, 2020)
  • BPN14770 for Alzheimer’s Disease (May 26, 2020)
  • Sumifilam for Alzheimer’s Disease (May 15, 2020)

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS
KEY OPINION LEADER INSIGHTS
  • Meaningful changes on clinical endpoints are essential
  • Generics are entrenched in current treatment strategies
  • Alzheimer’s heterogeneity requires a diverse treatment approach
  • Individual treatment paradigms

UNMET NEEDS
  • Currently approved therapies display modest efficacy at best
  • Current treatments are only palliative and do not prolong survival
  • Beyond cognition and function, Alzheimer’s disease also involves behavioral deficits

BIBLIOGRAPHYAPPENDIX
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Trends in prevalent cases of Alzheimer’s disease, 2018–27
Figure 2: Overview of pipeline drugs for Alzheimer's disease in the US
Figure 3: Pipeline drugs for Alzheimer's disease, by company
Figure 4: Pipeline drugs for Alzheimer's disease, by drug type
Figure 5: Pipeline drugs for Alzheimer's disease, by classification
Figure 6: Probability of success in the Alzheimer's disease pipeline
Figure 7: Clinical trials in Alzheimer's disease
Figure 8: Top 10 drugs for clinical trials in Alzheimer's disease
Figure 9: Top 10 companies for clinical trials in Alzheimer's disease
Figure 10: Trial locations in Alzheimer's disease
Figure 11: Alzheimer's disease trials status
Figure 12: Alzheimer's disease trials sponsors, by phase
Figure 13: The publisher’s drug assessment summary for Alzheimer's disease
Figure 14: Market dynamics in Alzheimer's disease
Figure 15: Future trends in Alzheimer's disease
Figure 16: AR1001 for Alzheimer’s Disease (March 29, 2021): Phase II - ADP2-US01
Figure 17: Troriluzole for Alzheimer’s Disease (January 18, 2021): Phase II/III - T2 Protect AD (ADCS)
Figure 18: LY3002813 for Alzheimer’s Disease (January 11, 2021): Phase II - TRAILBLAZER-ALZ (w/LY3202626)
Figure 19: Masitinib for Alzheimer’s Disease (December 16, 2020): Phase III - Add-On Therapy (Spain)
Figure 20: Azeliragon for Alzheimer’s Disease (December 15, 2020): Phase II/III - Elevage (Mild Alzheimer/T2D)
Figure 21: Semorinemab for Alzheimer’s Disease (September 23, 2020): Phase II - TAURIEL (Prodromal to Mild)
Figure 22: BPN14770 for Alzheimer’s Disease (May 26, 2020): Phase II - PICASSO AD
Figure 23: Sumifilam for Alzheimer’s Disease (May 15, 2020): Phase IIb - Mild-to-Moderate AD
Figure 24: Key upcoming events in Alzheimer's disease
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Alzheimer’s disease severity, by rating scale
Table 2: FDA stages by disease attributes
Table 3: Prevalent cases of Alzheimer’s disease, 2018–27
Table 4: Marketed drugs for Alzheimer's disease
Table 5: Pipeline drugs for Alzheimer's disease in the US
Table 6: Historical global sales, by drug ($m), 2016–20
Table 7: Forecasted global sales, by drug ($m), 2021–25
Table 8: AR1001 for Alzheimer’s Disease (March 29, 2021)
Table 9: Atuzaginstat for Alzheimer’s Disease (February 15, 2021)
Table 10: Troriluzole for Alzheimer’s Disease (January 18, 2021)
Table 11: LY3002813 for Alzheimer’s Disease (January 11, 2021)
Table 12: Masitinib for Alzheimer’s Disease (December 16, 2020)
Table 13: Azeliragon for Alzheimer’s Disease (December 15, 2020)
Table 14: Aducanumab for Alzheimer’s Disease (November 6, 2020)
Table 15: Aducanumab for Alzheimer’s Disease (November 4, 2020)
Table 16: Semorinemab for Alzheimer’s Disease (September 23, 2020)
Table 17: Aducanumab for Alzheimer’s Disease (August 7, 2020)
Table 18: BPN14770 for Alzheimer’s Disease (May 26, 2020)
Table 19: Sumifilam for Alzheimer’s Disease (May 15, 2020)