Economic growth in MENA will moderate slightly, coming down to 4% from its current 4.4%, as the effects of high oil prices stabilize. Nonetheless, MENA energy-exporting markets will continue to attract attention from multinational companies, particularly as the rest of the world suffers impacts from looming recessions through H1 2023.
The oil-exporting GCC - led by Saudi Arabia - will see the most investment attention as well as growth expectations from firms, leading to rising competition. Amassed oil revenues will drive investment, as new projects enter implementation phases.
However, operating and living costs will remain highly elevated through H1 2023, as inflation fails to come down meaningfully. Financial risk management, talent acquisition, supply chain resilience, and pricing strategies will remain the most important strategic priorities to perfect, as margin erosion ensues through the first six months of the year.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- MENA in the Global Context
- Global Drivers of the Outlook for MENA
- Business Implications and Actions to Take
- Demand Dynamics Outlook
- Operating Conditions Outlook
- Expat Population Decline in the GCC
- Tourism Sector Recovery Will Vary Across Countries
- MENA Growth Trends in 2023
- Partners Will Face Stronger Pressures in 2023
- Financial Risks Linger into 2023
- Additional Resources
Methodology
The author’s strengths include global management topics and country level analysis tailored for a senior executive audience. The research focuses on cross-industry implications of macroeconomic, geopolitical risk, and emerging trends that impact the strategic decisions of business decisionmakers.
Research analysts:
Almost all have advanced degrees in economics, international affairs, or political science, and are multilingual. Researchers have lived and worked in the markets they cover and are based in regional hubs close to market
- Analysts cover:
- Economic trends and indicators (near-term volatility, long-term forecasts); political developments (election results, post-election policy, regulations, spending, monetary policy), outlook for market demand and cost of doing business, upside and downside scenarios, MNC investment sentiment, business practices
- Quality control:
- Research workflows supported by standard, proprietary process maps, tools and templates for analysis and writing, forecast admin tool, and content management system
- Research managers pressure-test quality, consistency and usefulness of outlooks, scenarios, and suggested actions
- Analyst interactions with clients (>1500/year) provide ongoing feedback loops from on-the-ground operators to c-suite
- Research inputs include:
- Primary: Multinational and local executives (interviews, surveys, analyst consultations), international and local experts (NGO officials, academics, consultants), international and local government officials
- Secondary: Local-language news and international media, public/official data sources, government/association reports, Bloomberg
- Research outputs include:
- Forecast economic data, country/region outlooks and scenarios, market intelligence reports (monthly/quarterly for key countries as well as occasional Market Spotlights), as-needed analyst commentary alerts
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