Gas Turbine Market Forecasts from 2023 to 2028

The global gas turbine market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.27% over the forecast period to reach a market size of US$27.182 billion in 2028, from US$21.429 billion in 2021.

Gas turbines are used to convert natural gas or energy to mechanical energy which can be used to power aircraft, electrical generators, pumps, gas compressors, tanks, ships, and heaters. The growing global electricity demand is a major growth factor in the gas turbine market.

Growth Drivers of the global gas turbine market

There are factors propelling the global gas turbine market such as the growing population and rapid urbanization as electrical energy is a necessary element required in households, offices, institutions, etc. For instance, the world population exceeded 8 billion people in November 2022, and it is estimated to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 as per the UN reports. Electricity usage is more in the urbanized region and with rapid urbanization, the demand for gas turbines is expanding. According to UN Organization, more than half of the population lives in the urban area and it is estimated to grow to two-thirds by 2050. Additionally, the technological advancements by the major market players are further driving the global gas turbine market.

Growing Global Electricity Demand

The growing demand for electricity worldwide due to the increasing population is propelling the global gas turbine market. One of the predicted causes of the rising energy consumption is the expanding need for powerful heating and cooling systems in certain locations. For instance, the world consumption of electricity increased from 23966 billion kWh in 2021 to 25343 billion kWh in 2022 according to EIA.

The growing demand for gas in countries like the United States and China owing to initiatives towards sustainable development is also expected to push the demand for gas for catering the energy needs, thereby positively impacting the demand for gas turbines throughout the forecast period. The electricity consumption of the US increased by 2.6% in 2022 as compared to 2021 and reached 4 trillion kWH as per the EIA reports. Moreover, space cooling and heating devices hold a significant share of around 32% of the residential sector in 2022.

The gas turbines market with a power rating of more than 300 MW

The market growth for this segment is being driven by the rapid growth of the energy and power sector in major regions across the globe. The heavy inflow of capital investments by industry players into this sector is boosting the adoption of gas turbines with high power ratings. For instance, in April 2022, Malaysia’s leading gas-based power plant Edra Energy’s 2.2 GW combined power plant launched its operation in Alor Gajah, Malacca in Malaysia. The new manufacturing plant can generate three blocks which are individually capable of generating 745 MW. Such investments in the >300 MW segment are expected to boost the market demand of more than 300 MW segment.

The global gas turbine market is expected to be benefitted from the fact that power generation with the help of natural resources is the safest option these days. Additionally, power generation with the help of other resources is increasing carbon emissions in the environment. Many countries are taking steps to prevent carbon emissions in the environment. The increased use of gas turbines for power generation is providing an edge for market growth of segment >300 MW in the projected period.

The power generation segment of the global gas turbine market

The demand is being driven by the increase in power generation operations across the world because of the need for energy caused by population expansion and increasing urbanization, as well as the transition from coal to gas-based power plants in several of the world's main countries. The key impetus for gas turbines, especially those with capacities exceeding 200 MW, is the growth of the power production industry along with a greater emphasis on producing electricity from renewable energy sources.

Moreover, establishing nuclear-based power plants involves significant financial outlays as well as operational dangers related to security issues. Since natural gas-fired power generation is the safest alternative, there will likely be a rise in the demand for gas turbines on the global market. Global carbon dioxide emissions totalled 38, 976 million tonnes as of 2021, and they are constantly rising as per the International Energy Agency. To cut emissions, nations including Japan, Russia, Myanmar, and Germany are taxing power plants. The use of gas-fired power plants will increase as a result.

The rise of the worldwide gas turbine market in the power sector is anticipated to occur over the forecast period because of the rising trend of distributed energy production and the substitution of phased-out nuclear and coal facilities. This has also increased the electricity generation by natural gas, for instance, as per the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2022, the electricity generation increased from 6.37K TWh in 2020 to 6.52K TWh in 2021.

The United States in North America is an Expected Dominant Market

Firstly, the increasing need for reliable and efficient power generation plays a vital role in the market's expansion. Gas turbines are known for their high energy conversion efficiency, low emissions, and flexibility in various applications, making them a preferred choice for electricity production.

Additionally, the transition towards cleaner energy sources and the push for reduced carbon emissions have stimulated the demand for gas turbines. As a relatively cleaner fossil fuel option compared to coal, natural gas has gained prominence in the energy mix of the United States. Gas turbines offer a more environmentally friendly solution for power generation, aligning with the country's sustainability goals and regulations.

The United States is projected to witness a notable growth factor in the gas turbine market as oil output from the seven largest shale basins is anticipated to reach its highest recorded level in June 2023. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil production is set to increase by 41, 000 barrels per day (bpd), reaching 9.33 million bpd. Specifically, the Permian Basin, the largest shale oil basin in Texas and New Mexico, is expected to experience a significant surge in crude output by 15, 000 bpd, achieving a record high of 5.71 million bpd.

Expansion of oil production as a growth driver of global gas turbine market

This substantial expansion in oil production signifies an augmented supply of natural gas, which acts as a vital fuel source for gas turbines. As a result, the higher availability of natural gas can contribute to the growth of the gas turbine market in the USA, as it enables the establishment of additional gas turbine-based power generation facilities, reinforcing the demand for gas turbines and associated equipment. It is worth noting that alongside increased oil output, other factors such as government policies, technological advancements, and market dynamics also influence the growth of the gas turbine market in the USA.

Key Developments

• In January 2023, n-dimensional in collaboration with PSM launched a new gas turbine digital twin product.
• In June 2023, the Gruha Jyoti scheme was launched by the Congress government in Karnataka state of India to provide 200 units of free electricity to every household in the state.

Segmentation:

By Power Rating

• < 100 MW
• 100 MW-300 MW
• >300 MW

By Type

• Gas Cycle
• Combined Cycle
• Cogeneration

By Application

• Power Generation
• Oil and Gas
• Others

By Geography

• North America
• United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• South America
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Others
• Europe
• United Kingdom
• Germany
• France
• Spain
• Others
• Middle East and Africa
• Saudi Arabia
• UAE
• Israel
• Others
• Asia Pacific
• Japan
• China
• India
• South Korea
• Indonesia
• Thailand
• Others