Electric Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020

Over 2.5 Million Electric Vehicles are Likely to Be Sold in 2020 with China Continuing to Be the Leader with a 53% Market Share

As we move into the new decade, the electric vehicle (EV) industry is likely to experience total sales of over 2.5 million units (including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Majority of the European OEMs are likely to reduce PHEV models and introduce BEV models in their product lines. OEMs are revisiting their product mix to comply with emission norms and targets. Over 450 models - 300 BEVs and 150 PHEVs - will be available for sale in 2020.

The EV market grew by 8.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), registering the slowest growth in the decade. This low growth was mainly due to slowdown in sales on a global scale across China, Europe and the United States. By region, Europe experienced the highest growth in 2019. The slowdown was experienced from the second half of 2019 mainly in China due to the elimination of certain incentives. The country, however, continues to lead the market with over 52.5% market share followed by Europe and the United States with 26.0% and 14% shares respectively. Norway continues to lead in terms of penetration rate, at 60%, which is 5% higher than the 2018 level. BEVs dominate the market and have come out stronger in 2019 with a 74% share while PHEVs constitute the remaining 26%. Global policies favor the adoption of BEVs, which has reflected in their increased sales. A total of 345 models - 221 BEVs and 124 PHEs - was available for sale in 2019. Over 320,000 public charging stations, including both AC and DC charging stations, were installed globally.

In 2020, Europe will experience the highest growth as compared to other regions mainly due to the implementation of stringent emission norms. On similar terms, China is likely to experience negative growth in EV sales since there is no clarity on the incentive revisions and the effects of Coronavirus on the country. Non-monetary or tax incentives are likely to be more attractive for buyers as countries with the highest EV penetration ratio (Norway, Netherlands) offer these rather than cash incentives.

The global EV battery recycling market generated a revenue of $10.3 million in 2018 and is expected to reach $6,524.2 million by 2025, expanding at a CAGR of 151.5%. Out of the revenue generated, hydro-metallurgical process constituted 59%, followed by the pyro-metallurgical process at 39% and other recycling technologies at 2%. Current recycling processes for lithium-ion battery cells focus on the recovery of cobalt, nickel, and copper due to their comparatively high prices and ease of recovery in the pyro-metallurgical process. Other elements are mostly not recovered or undergo down-cycling. In this way, numerous hydro-metallurgical procedures have been created by different organizations – examples are the procedures created by Accurec and Toxco Inc. (presently Retriev Technologies Inc.).