East Africa Oil and Gas Downstream Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecasts (2023-2028)

The market for oil and gas downstream in East Africa is expected to register a CAGR of about 2.32% during the forecast period.

The market was negatively impacted by COVID-19 in 2020. Currently. The market has reached pre-pandemic levels.

Key Highlights

• Over the long term, the increasing demand for oil and natural gas is expected to boost the demand for the East Africa oil and gas downstream market during the forecast period.
• On the other hand, political instability, due to civil war, in countries of East Africa, like South Sudan and Somalia, are restraints in the growth of the oil and gas downstream sector.
• Nevertheless, an increase in oil and gas production in the region is expected to increase the refining throughput capacity, which will enable the downstream market to grow.
• South Sudan is expected to dominate the market due to increased investment in the oil and gas downstream market.

East Africa Oil & Gas Downstream Market Trends

Refinery Capacity to Witness growth

• The East African countries have low refining capacity compared to the population in the region. Central gas wells have been discovered in the area's coastal lands. Nations like Mozambique and Tanzania have tried to ramp up projects to increase natural gas production.
• In 2022, Africa had the continent's 600 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves. South Sudan has over 3.5 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, and Mozambique has more than 180 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. While Kenya had a commercially extractable volume of 585 million barrels in 2021. The vast potential in Eastern African countries strengthens the expansion of refining capacity.
• Furthermore, East Africa's companies are expected to invest in the oil and gas industry in the East Africa region. The investment would likely increase production and create an opportunity for cheaper oil and gas for the refineries. Thus, new investments are expected to be added in the refineries and petrochemicals sector in the forecast period.
• Moreover, in 2021, the oil consumption of Eastern Africa grew by 7% to 588 thousand barrels daily, which was 549 thousand barrels daily in 2020. The growing demand for oil in the Eastern African region is anticipated to drive refining capacity growth.
• Hence, refining capacity is expected to increase in the forecast period due to the region's gas production increase.

South Sudan to Witness Significant Growth

• As per the Oil & Gas Journal, Sudan and South Sudan collectively held proven oil reserves of 5 billion barrels as of January 2022. In the recent licensing round, Sudan offered eight oil blocks to revamp upstream development and awards will be announced tentatively in 2023.
• South Sudan launched its first-ever licensing round in 2021, offering five exploration licenses, through which the government hopes to attract a diverse group of foreign investors to stimulate upstream investment and increase its crude oil production. The government collected the expressions of interest till August 23, 2022, and will likely organize investor events later to provide more data and transparency for the blocks on offers.
• Sudan’s storage facilities for crude oil and refined products are situated at the Bashayer Marine Terminal. The Bashayer Marine Terminal is operated by Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC), which has a storage facility with a capacity of 2.5 million barrels and an export and import facility with a handling capacity of 1.2 million b/d.
• In 2021, the oil production in South Sudan was 7.5 Million Tonnes, a decrease of 8% from the previous year. The oil production in South Sudan has witnessed both upward & downward trend in the past. With the tapping of huge oil & gas resource potential that presently South Sudan holds would lead to increase in downstream market activities in future.
• The South Sudan oil and gas downstream industry is expected to witness growth during the forecast period due to the initiation of government efforts to start exploration activities in the country.

East Africa Oil & Gas Downstream Market Competitor Analysis

The East Africa oil and gas downstream market is consolidated. The major companies include (in no particular order) Sudan National Petroleum Corporation, China National Petroleum Corporation, Eni SpA, Royal Dutch Shell PLC, and Petrogal SA.

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• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
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