CASE Convergence and Value Chain Integration Will Ensure Transformational Growth
Electric buses will find traction across major regions driven by emission regulations, battery price drop, the emergence of low emission zones, purchase subsidy, and tax exemptions. The growing adoption of electric transit buses has enabled global sourcing and supply chain for alternate powertrain buses. The market is witnessing strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new players striving to enter the market. Battery-electric buses are expected to have a larger market share, followed by fuel cell electric buses by 2030. The lower total cost of ownership of electric buses, when compared to diesel buses, and the push for developing charging infrastructure will make electric buses a profitable option from 2024 to 2026.
The global electric bus market size is expected to reach more than 210,000 units by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9%. The penetration of electric buses in China is expected to reach 80% in 2030 India and LATAM will be the fastest-growing markets between 2020 and 2030 with a CAGR of 38.4% and 28.4%, respectively.
EU Clean Vehicle directive targets for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses are expected to have strong growth from 2022 to 2025. JIVE projects encourage fuel cell bus adoption across EU countries. The entry of utility and energy major companies into electric charging infrastructure will boost the growth of fuelling infrastructure for electric vehicles.
In China, battery-electric buses will see moderate growth from 2022 to 2025 due to the reduction of subsidies and purchase incentives. The revised subsidy program in China incorporates stricter thresholds for electric range and energy efficiencies as the minimum requirement for qualification. However lower battery prices and charging infrastructure will drive higher electric bus adoption towards 2030. In addition, Chinese electric bus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, with the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, in addition to exports.
Zero-emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) is expected to drive the electric bus adoption in Latin America with the focus initially on Medellin, São Paulo, and Mexico City. Major countries are developing an electromobility strategy promoting zero-emission buses in public transportation. Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into LATAM. The electric bus unit shipments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.4% from 2020 to 2030.
The increasing need for reducing emissions, especially in highly-populated cities, will necessitate the need for electric buses in the intra-city passenger transport segment. Growing battery capacities coupled with aggressive development in charging infrastructure technologies is expected to increase the adoption rate of electric powertrains in the coaches segment though it faces stiff competition from diesel and natural gas buses.
