Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Outlook, 2024

Strong Sales in China to Compensate for Decline in Truck Market in North America and Europe

Both China and Europe experienced significant growth in LCV and M&HD truck sales in 2023, mainly driven by a low base affect. Other emerging markets faced a challenging year, with India and ASEAN specifically contracting in LCV sales and with LATAM’s M&HD truck sales declining substantially in 2023. After a difficult 2022, Chinese OEMs reemerged in 2023 with a boost in domestic sales and a growing footprint outside of China, especially in the LATAM and ASEAN markets, displacing incumbent European and Japanese OEMs. Chinese OEMs contributed to nearly one-third of global truck sales in 2023, a substantial increase from one-fourth of sales the previous year.

The growing proliferation of EV technology globally will drive the CV industry toward a higher level of modularity and platformization across vehicle segments, weight classes, and geographies, to offer common benefits and cut costs. Recent cutbacks in EV investments because of lower consumer interest and higher raw material prices can prove to be a boost to alternate ICE vehicles with lower price premiums that customers can more readily adopt in the short-to-medium term.

Economic growth in 2024 is expected to be slower than in 2023, with high interest rates and rising inflation continuing to be a challenge, certainly in the first half of the year. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, in addition to state elections in several countries, only add to the uncertainties and unpredictability of the year ahead. Advanced markets, such as North America and Europe, are expected to experience a significant decline in truck sales in 2024 because of excess capacity and an underwhelming freight situation. Emerging markets, such as ASEAN and LATAM, are expected to bounce back strongly on the back of stronger macros after a weak 2023.