HVAC Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, 2021-2031

The Global HVAC Market is projected to expand from USD 262.23 Billion in 2025 to USD 388.05 Billion by 2031, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 6.75%. HVAC systems integrate mechanical technologies to manage indoor environmental conditions, including temperature, humidity, and air quality, across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. This growth trajectory is primarily underpinned by rapid urbanization necessitating new infrastructure and strict government energy efficiency regulations that mandate the replacement of outdated units. The scale of this demand is evident in data from the Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association, which estimated global air conditioner demand at approximately 131.6 million units in 2024.

However, the market faces significant hurdles due to global supply chain instability and rising raw material costs, which directly inflate manufacturing and installation prices. These economic factors threaten to postpone capital-intensive construction endeavors and may discourage cost-conscious consumers from upgrading to compliant high-efficiency systems, potentially hindering the rate of widespread market adoption.

Market Drivers

The robust growth of global construction and infrastructure development serves as a primary driver for the HVAC sector, dictating the demand for new installations in commercial, residential, and industrial areas. As urbanization intensifies, especially in developing regions, the need for sophisticated climate control systems in high-rise buildings, data centers, and public transportation centers rises accordingly; this demand extends beyond new construction to include the integration of advanced ventilation in renovated facilities to meet modern standards. Recent federal statistics quantify this trend, with the U.S. Census Bureau reporting in July 2024 that construction spending for May 2024 reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.13 trillion, underscoring the massive investment supporting ancillary mechanical industries.

Simultaneously, financial incentives and tax credits for green technologies are transforming market dynamics by encouraging a shift toward sustainable solutions. Governments are increasingly offering fiscal benefits to reduce the cost of adopting high-efficiency heat pumps and low-GWP refrigerant systems, thereby narrowing the price gap for both manufacturers and consumers. These economic measures are essential for speeding up the transition from legacy fossil-fuel units to compliant electric alternatives, ensuring continued market relevance. For example, the U.S. Department of Energy announced in February 2024 a $63 million investment to boost domestic residential heat pump manufacturing, a level of support that bolsters industry performance as seen in Trane Technologies' 2023 full-year revenue report of $17.7 billion.

Market Challenges

Global supply chain instability and rising raw material costs present a major barrier to the Global HVAC Market. These economic disruptions directly increase production expenses, compelling manufacturers to raise prices for finished units. As a result, the higher costs associated with acquiring and installing compliant high-efficiency systems discourage price-sensitive buyers and lead to delays in major commercial infrastructure projects, effectively slowing the rate of market penetration and countering the growth usually driven by urbanization and regulations.

The negative effect of these economic pressures is evident in recent industry data. The European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) reported that in 2024, heat pump sales across 14 key European markets fell by 21% from the prior year, amounting to roughly 2.2 million units. This decline demonstrates how supply chain limitations and escalating costs translate into lower market activity, preventing the sector from fully achieving the demand levels projected by broader structural drivers.

Market Trends

The mandatory phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) driven by international protocols is significantly reshaping inventory cycles and manufacturing strategies within the Global HVAC Market. With regulations such as the AIM Act in the United States and the F-Gas Regulation in Europe imposing stricter limits on legacy refrigerants, the industry is seeing substantial pre-compliance buying as distributors and contractors stockpile equipment using older refrigerants like R-410A to avoid the higher costs and flammability requirements of newer A2L alternatives. This regulatory pressure is generating temporary revenue surges for manufacturers; for instance, Lennox International reported in January 2025 that its Home Comfort Solutions segment achieved 25% revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, largely due to high sales volumes driven by R-410A pre-purchasing before the 2025 transition.

Concurrently, the market is undergoing a structural transition toward electrification, marked by the rapid adoption of electric heat pump technologies that are replacing traditional fossil-fuel heating systems. This shift is propelled not only by policy but also by technological improvements in cold-weather performance, rendering heat pumps a practical primary heating source in areas once reliant on gas furnaces. Shipment data highlights this change in consumer preference toward dual-function units; according to the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), year-to-date shipments of air-source heat pumps rose by 14.0% to over 4.1 million units by December 2024, significantly outperforming other equipment categories.

Key Players Profiled in the HVAC Market

• Daikin Industries Ltd.
• Emerson Electric Co.
• Fujitsu General Ltd.
• Haier Smart Home Co. Ltd.
• Honeywell International Inc.
• Johnson Controls International PLC
• Lennox International Inc.
• LG Electronics Inc.
• MIDEA Group Co. Ltd.
• Mitsubishi Electric Corp.

Report Scope

In this report, the Global HVAC Market has been segmented into the following categories:

HVAC Market, by Type:

• Direct Expansion Systems
• Central Air Conditioning Systems

HVAC Market, by End User:

• Residential
• Commercial
• Institutional
• Marine & Offshore
• Oil & Gas
• Power
• Others

HVAC Market, by Region:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• South America
• Middle East & Africa

Competitive Landscape

Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global HVAC Market.

Available Customization

The analyst offers customization according to your specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report:

• Detailed analysis and profiling of additional market players (up to five).

This product will be delivered within 1-3 business days.