The lifting of restrictions across Western Europe at the beginning of Q1 2022 has fueled a notable uptick in economic activity, but ongoing global supply shortages and the fallout from the war in Ukraine have derailed the region’s growth outlooks, pushing key markets into a mild recession in Q2-Q4 2022.
Historic levels of inflation, combined with gradual monetary tightening, will put a persistent strain on purchasing power and drive consumer spending across the region into a broad stagnation. Industrial production is set to ease substantially and contract in several markets, such as Germany and Italy, while stagnating elsewhere in the region. High inflation will also bite into governments’ revenues and require substantial fiscal adjustments, leading to milder B2G demand dynamics.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Western Europe in the Global Context
- Western Europe Outlook for 2022
- Scenarios for Western Europe
- Energy Supply Outlook
- Suggested Actions
- Demand Dynamics Outlook
- Operating Conditions Outlook
- Markets in Focus
- Featured Topics
- Additional Resources
Samples
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Methodology
The author’s strengths include global management topics and country level analysis tailored for a senior executive audience. The research focuses on cross-industry implications of macroeconomic, geopolitical risk, and emerging trends that impact the strategic decisions of business decisionmakers.
Research analysts:
Almost all have advanced degrees in economics, international affairs, or political science, and are multilingual. Researchers have lived and worked in the markets they cover and are based in regional hubs close to market
- Analysts cover:
- Economic trends and indicators (near-term volatility, long-term forecasts); political developments (election results, post-election policy, regulations, spending, monetary policy), outlook for market demand and cost of doing business, upside and downside scenarios, MNC investment sentiment, business practices
- Quality control:
- Research workflows supported by standard, proprietary process maps, tools and templates for analysis and writing, forecast admin tool, and content management system
- Research managers pressure-test quality, consistency and usefulness of outlooks, scenarios, and suggested actions
- Analyst interactions with clients (>1500/year) provide ongoing feedback loops from on-the-ground operators to c-suite
- Research inputs include:
- Primary: Multinational and local executives (interviews, surveys, analyst consultations), international and local experts (NGO officials, academics, consultants), international and local government officials
- Secondary: Local-language news and international media, public/official data sources, government/association reports, Bloomberg
- Research outputs include:
- Forecast economic data, country/region outlooks and scenarios, market intelligence reports (monthly/quarterly for key countries as well as occasional Market Spotlights), as-needed analyst commentary alerts
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