Rising Demand, Innovation, and Competition Accelerating Future Growth Potential of Electric Light Commercial Vehicles
This report provides an overview of the electric light commercial vehicle (e-LCV) market in North America, Europe, China, and Asia-Pacific, presenting growth opportunities, comparisons between select models, sales percentage forecasts, and total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis. The e-LCV market across these regions is expected to reach 5.6 million units by 2030. Similarly, e-LCV penetration is forecast to be the highest in Europe at 40% followed by China at 35% by 2030. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are anticipated to dominate the overall electric market with a small fraction belonging to fuel cell electric vehicles, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are likely to be phased out by 2030.
China and North America are expected to contribute 69.6% to global e-LCV volumes collectively by 2030. Europe’s contribution is estimated to drop to 23.8% as North America overtakes Europe through aggressive volume growth. In the light commercial vehicle segment, North America and Europe show electrification potential for heavier vehicles (more than 3.5 tons) whereas China and Asia-Pacific lean toward lighter vehicles (less than 3.5 tons).
In North America, light commercial vehicles have higher daily mileage and are heavier and costlier. As such, e-LCVs in North America are expected to have significantly higher power output and battery capacity than those in other regions. Although e-LCVs in Europe are slightly heavier and priced higher, Europe, China, and Asia-Pacific share common vehicle specifications in terms of battery capacity, range, and power requirements. In terms of applications, the overall market’s primary focus is on parcel and delivery services. European manufacturers cover a broader range of applications with their existing e-LCVs, while their counterparts in North America plan to deploy vehicle electrification in slightly heavier applications, such as construction. Established original equipment manufacturers face increasing competition from new entrants that are pure play electric vehicle makers in specific applications.
BEVs provide greater TCO advantage in high mileage applications, achieving TCO parity faster with diesel-based vehicles than in low mileage applications. Moving forward, the TCO advantage is anticipated to drive BEV adoption and capture the market share predominantly held by diesel powertrain. Lower acquisition costs due to declining prices of key electric vehicle components will further accelerate BEV adoption.
Table of Contents
1. Growth Environment
Key Findings
e-LCV Penetration Forecast
e-LCV Market - Regional Contribution
Growth of e-LCV Adoption
Electrification Potential by Body Type
e-LCV Regional Focus - Select OEMs
2. Strategic Imperatives
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the e-LCV Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
3. Growth Opportunity Analysis
Scope of Analysis
Market Segmentation
4. Electrification in LCVs
e-LCV Ecosystem
Growth Drivers and Restraints
e-LCV Service Roadmap
e-LCV Technology Roadmap
Battery Chemistry - Technology Roadmap
Existing Battery Chemistry
Battery Chemistry Suppliers - OEM Mapping
Electric Motor Types
Electric Motor Placement
e-LCV Regional Benchmarking - Average Battery Capacity
e-LCV Regional Benchmarking - Average Range and Average Power
e-LCV Regional Benchmarking - Average GVWR and Average Price
Electrification Use Cases for e-LCVs
e-LCV Application Focus - Established OEMs
e-LCV Application Focus - Start-ups
5. Growth Opportunity Analysis, NA
EV Incentives
LCV Total Sales and Market Share of Major Participants
Sales Percentage by Powertrain Split
Anticipated e-LCV Launches
Select e-LCV Models - Specification Comparison
Select e-LCV Models - Price Range
LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast
LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast Discussion
Sales Percentage Forecast by Powertrain
6. Growth Opportunity Analysis, Europe
EV Incentives
LCV Total Sales and Market Share of Major Participants
Sales Percentage by Powertrain Split
Existing and Anticipated e-LCV Models
Select e-LCV Models - Specification Comparison
Select e-LCV Models - Price Range
LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast
LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast Discussion
Sales Percentage Forecast by Powertrain
7. Growth Opportunity Analysis, China
EV Incentives
LCV Total Sales and Market Share of Major Participants
Sales Percentage by Powertrain Split
Existing e-LCV Models
e-LCV Models - Specification Comparison
e-LCV Models - Price Range
LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast
LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast Discussion
Sales Percentage Forecast by Powertrain
8. Growth Opportunity Analysis, APAC
EV Incentives
LCV Total Sales and Market Share of Major Participants
Sales Percentage by Powertrain Split
Existing e-LCV Models
e-LCV Models - Specification Comparison
e-LCV Models - Price Range
LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast
LCV Total Sales and EV Penetration Forecast Discussion
Sales Percentage Forecast by Powertrain
9. TCO Analysis, Europe
TCO Analysis, Europe - Assumptions
TCO Analysis, Europe - Low Mileage
TCO Analysis, Europe - Medium Mileage
TCO Analysis, Europe - High Mileage
10. Growth Opportunity Universe
Growth Opportunity 1 - Commonality in Product Requirements Across Europe, China, and APAC Decreases Costs
Growth Opportunity 2 - Low Barriers to Entry for New Participants in the e-LCV Space
Growth Opportunity 3 - Rising Electrification Potential in Previously Unattractive Heavy-duty Applications
11. Appendix
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
12. Next Steps
Your Next Steps
List of Exhibits
Legal Disclaimer
