New Product Launches and Competitive Intensity will Accelerate the Future Growth Potential of Electric Commercial Vehicles
Countries across the world are shifting towards a low-carbon economy. In Europe, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is an important element of the low-emission mobility strategy. City administrative bodies and local authorities play pivotal roles in this transition by providing incentives for low-emission vehicles and deploying charging infrastructure.
Electric vehicles are gaining traction as part of this shift, with rapid penetration expected beyond 2025 as the market matures for EV adoption and more EVs become available for commercial sale. In Europe, the battery-electric trucks in the medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) segments will reach 28,648 and 160,561 units by 2030, respectively. Battery-electric truck penetration will be the highest in Germany, with 48.2% in the MD segment and 43% in the HD segment.
The study covers the commercial vehicle (CV) market across the following sectors:
- MD CVs: 6 to 16 tons gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR)
- HD CV: Greater than 16 tons GVWR
Government incentives and programs, like the electro-mobility directive from Germany, electric charging funding in France, and the Efficient and Sustainable Mobility Incentives (MOVES) II program in Spain, will drive electrification and the growth of charging infrastructure.
OEMs are focusing on urban distribution, refuse, and regional haul as strong use cases for electrification. The battery's energy density and cycle life are expected to increase even as costs reduce with the likely commercialization of solid-state lithium and lithium-sulfur technology after 2027. Fuel cell technology is progressively getting better on power density and durability. The progressive expansion of no-emission zones in cities and the diesel vehicle ban in Europe will affect diesel trucks in future.
Crude oil price fluctuations and lower maintenance costs will strongly favor the total cost of ownership of electric trucks as battery prices are expected to decline significantly after 2025. Lower cost of ownership with attractive leasing options for batteries and trucks and greater access to charging infrastructure will encourage smaller fleets to shift towards electric vehicles. The study also provides a total cost of ownership analysis to examine the effect of these factors on the electric MD and HD segments.
