Pakistan Solar Energy - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The Pakistan Solar Energy Market is expected to grow from 6.75 gigawatt in 2025 to 7.95 gigawatt in 2026 and is forecast to reach 18.05 gigawatt by 2031 at 17.82% CAGR over 2026-2031.

Plunging module prices, a cumulative 155% run-up in retail electricity tariffs since 2021, and widening access to concessional vendor financing have compressed commercial payback periods below three years, catalyzing adoption among textile mills and food processors.Pakistan imported 16.9 GW of photovoltaic (PV) modules in 2024, a 127% year-on-year surge that vaulted the country to the world’s third-largest destination for Chinese solar exports, trailing only the United States and Brazil. Provincial free-solar-kit schemes targeting 500,000 households and corporate power-purchase agreements (PPAs) are reshaping demand patterns faster than distribution utilities can stabilize reverse power flows. Rising dependence on daytime self-generation has shaved 8-10% off grid demand in solar-dense urban feeders, forcing distribution companies (DISCOs) to socialize PKR 200 billion in stranded grid costs among non-solar consumers.

Pakistan Solar Energy Market Trends and Insights

Plummeting Module and Balance-of-System Prices

Module prices collapsed 60% in 2024 after Chinese manufacturers dumped surplus inventory into South Asia, dragging utility-scale levelized costs below PKR 9.8 per unit, far under the PKR 29-48 retail range in Islamabad.Bulk procurement enabled EPCs to quote turnkey commercial systems at PKR 100,000-300,000 per kilowatt, down from PKR 180,000-400,000 nine months earlier, shortening payback periods for textile mills to under three years. However, slower declines in steel-intensive racking and cable pricing have squeezed local integrator margins and strengthened vertically integrated Chinese firms that fold vendor financing into supply contracts. Oversupply exceeding 200 GW worldwide is expected to keep module prices soft through 2026, yet any anti-dumping duties or further PKR depreciation would offset part of the advantage for Pakistani buyers.

Surge in Residential Rooftop Net-Metering Connections

Residential net-metering accounts rose to 283,000 by December 2024, a meteoric rise from negligible levels in 2020, as households aimed to hedge against the 155% tariff escalation since 2021. The Punjab Chief Minister’s zero-interest solar program, launched in December 2024, drew 861,000 applications within three months for 100,000 subsidized systems, revealing pent-up demand. An Economic Coordination Committee proposal to slash the buy-back rate from PKR 27 to PKR 10 per unit has triggered industry protests and legal challenges, injecting policy uncertainty that already dampens new rooftop bookings. DISCOs report an 8-10% midday demand erosion in dense feeders, spurring costly grid reinforcements to handle voltage swings and reverse power flow.

Proposed Cut in Net-Metering Buy-Back Tariff

The Economic Coordination Committee’s March 2025 nod to lower the buy-back rate from PKR 27 to PKR 10 per unit, plus term reduction from 10 to five years, seeks to avert PKR 545 billion in cross-subsidies by 2034. If enforced, payback periods for typical 5 kW rooftops would stretch from four to eight years and could slow residential adoption by 30-40% through 2027. Industrial users remain shielded because direct PPAs avoid net-metering altogether.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Corporate PPAs by Export-Oriented Industries
• Provincial Free-Solar-Kit Schemes for Low-Income Homes
• Weak Local Standards and Counterfeit Panels Glut

Segment Analysis

Solar photovoltaic maintained a 100.00% installation footprint within the Pakistan solar energy market in 2025 and is forecast to expand at an 17.82% CAGR through 2031, leaving concentrated solar power (CSP) commercially dormant. Crystalline-silicon modules, chiefly polycrystalline and monocrystalline PERC, represent 98% of deployed wattage, driven by 18-22% conversion efficiencies and sub-USD 0.15-per-watt pricing. Pakistan imported 16.9 GW of PV modules in 2024 alone, validating the country’s status as a pivotal off-take base for excess Chinese capacity.

CSP languishes despite superior direct-normal-irradiance in Balochistan and Sindh because water-intensive steam cycles are incompatible with the regions’ arid climates and because PV CAPEX has fallen below PKR 70,000 per kilowatt. Until dry-cooled CSP costs drop by at least 40%, PV will preserve its stranglehold on the Pakistan solar energy market.

The Pakistan Solar Energy Market Report is Segmented by Technology (Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrated Solar Power), Grid Type (On-Grid and Off-Grid), and End-User (Utility-Scale, Commercial and Industrial, and Residential). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).

List of companies covered in this report:

• Reon Energy Ltd
• Alpha Renewables (SMC Pvt) Ltd
• Shams Power Ltd
• Zonergy
• Yellow Door Energy
• JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
• Canadian Solar Inc
• LONGi Green Energy
• Trina Solar
• JA Solar
• Huawei Digital Power
• GoodWe
• SMA Solar Technology
• Fronius International
• Orient Energy Systems Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd.
• Nizam Energy
• Premier Energy
• SkyElectric
• Akhter Solar
• Tesla Industries Pakistan

Additional benefits of purchasing this report:

• Access to the market estimate sheet (Excel format)
• 3 months of analyst support