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This Marketdata report presents a wrap-up of 2023 performance for the U.S. weight loss market during the obesity drugs market explosion and a forecast for 2024. The value of the total market is estimated to have grown to a historic peak of $90 billion in 2023, boosted by soaring sales of the popular prescription GLP-1 weight loss drugs. This is a paradigm shift to medical programs, and a major challenge for competing commercial diet companies, which lost $1 billion in revenues since 2022.
GLP-1 drugs are a game changer in terms of the number of medications now on the market, plus others to come in the next several years. They have affected dieter behavior and how commercial diet companies operate. Nearly all non-medical segments of the market have felt the pain of declining sales, and 26,500 weight loss coaches have lost their jobs. However, more physicians are adding weight loss to their practices, bariatric surgeries are hitting new highs, and caseloads/revenues at medical weight loss franchises and at bariatricians are growing.
The report includes in-depth analyses of: 2020-2023 market/revenue performance, recent competitor and market developments, current dieter trends, diet company advertising spending, and a new analysis of the number and salaries of weight loss coaches in the industry. Special emphasis and analysis on the obesity drugs market, risks, what could derail the market, and why there is a wild west environment emerging - problems with using cheaper compounded drugs that are not FDA-approved.
Individual Status Reports and the Effects of the obesity drugs boom on Operations and revenues, for ALL major weight loss market segments, diet soft drinks, artificial sweeteners, health clubs industry, commercial weight loss chains, retail meal replacements, and retail appetite suppressants, medical programs (physicians, hospitals/clinic programs, prescription diet drugs, bariatrician, weight loss surgeries), and low-calorie dinner entrees.
Includes profiles/updated outlooks for: WW, NutriSystem, Jenny Craig, Medifast, Herbalife, Glanbia (Slim-Fast), Noom, Simply Good Foods (Atkins), HMR Boston, Lindora, and Profile by Sanford. Marketdata analysis of company strategy, conference calls.
Table of Contents
Introduction, Scope, Methodology
Overview: Weight Loss Market Size & Market Segments
- Summary: size of the total U.S. weight loss market, by segment: 2016 to 2023
- Top diet trends of 2023 (intermittent fasting, GOLO diet, Paleo, Keto, plant based, etc.), Top diet plans of 2024 (U.S. News, Forbes rankings)
- The major market and company developments of 2023
- Marketdata’s 2024 market forecasts and $ size for each segment of the weight loss market
- Effects of the pandemic and the obesity drugs boom on the market
- Weight Loss Market Advertising & Marketing Spending, by diet companies, drug mfrs. (Noom, WW, NutriSystem, GOLO)
Table:
- Total weight loss market $ sales, 10 segments: 2016-2023
- Total weight loss market $ sales, 10 segments: 2024 growth forecasts
- Performance of the leading diet companies: 2022 & 2023 sales, actions, strategies
Health Clubs Industry
- Status Report of U.S. Health Clubs Industry - no. of facilities, IHRSA estimates of lost revenues, companies filing for bankruptcy,
- List of industry key metrics
- Effects of the pandemic: discussion
- 2020 -2023 industry performance, $ revenues, challenges & opportunities
- 2024 Marketdata Forecast: $ size of the market, growth segments, outlook
Table:
- Revenues of the U.S. health clubs industry: 1993-2024 F
Commercial Weight Loss Programs
- Summary: effects of the obesity drugs boom on commercial diet firms, revenues lost
- Major Developments of 2023
- Staff Downsizing - 26,500 weight loss coaching jobs lost, coaches avg. salaries, no. of Coaches employed by company
- Full-year 2023 sales/performance for the major firms (WW, NutriSystem, Jenny Craig, Medifast, Profile by Sanford)
- Major segment developments since 2019
- Key metrics for average brick & mortar retail weight loss centers
- 2020 -2023 market segment performance, $ value of the market
- 2024 Marketdata Forecast: $ size of the commercial programs market
Company Status Reports/Outlooks, 2023 performance & developments & current outlook. Marketdata commentary on their actions & strategies
- WW International
- Jenny Craig
- NutriSystem
- Medifast
- Profile by Sanford
Tables:
- Revenues of commercial weight loss market segment: -2022 F
- The leaders, revenues for 2016-2024 F
- Estimated Number of U.S. weight loss coaches, by company
Medical Weight Loss Programs
- Summary: - 2023 Status Report & Summary for all medical programs segment, a mix of types of medical weight loss programs
- Discussion of how the pandemic affected operations of the hospital, MD, and clinics’ weight loss programs, shift to virtual delivery, telemedicine
Table:
- Value of The U.S. Medical Weight Loss Market, by Segment: 2016-2023
The Weight Loss (bariatric) Surgery Market
- Analysis - no. of surgeries, 2023-2024 forecasts
- Discussion of how the obesity drugs market has affected surgeries
- 2021 -2023 market segment performance, $ value of the market
- 2024 Marketdata Forecast: $ size of the market
Tables:
- No. of bariatric surgeries performed in the U.S.: 1995-2024 F
- $ value of the market: 1995-2024 F
- Number of bariatric surgeries performed, by type: 2017-2022
The Diet Drugs Market
- Discussion of a paradigm shift in the market, fueled by skyrocketing sales of Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic, Saxenda, Wegovy, Mounjaro, Zepbound by Lilly
- Discussion of drug prices, affordability by consumers, insurance vs. out-of-pocket, drug shortages, use of compounded Semaglutide, no. of prescriptions written, usage of older obesity drugs that are more affordable.
- Discussion: problems with compounding pharmacy products, risks, use by medical spas
- New drugs under development, market growth outlook, possible factors inhibiting growth
- 2020 -2023 Rx obesity drugs market performance, sales, growth
- 2024 Marketdata Forecast: $ size of the market
Table:
- U.S. obesity drug sales: 2004-2027 F
- Sales of the major weight loss drugs in 2022 and 2023
Hospital & Clinic Chains, MD programs
- Summary & discussion, growth for regional medical weight loss chains/franchises, status report for Lindora Clinics, HMR
- 2021 -2023 market segment performance, $ market size
- 2024 Marketdata Forecast: $ size of the market
Bariatricians (obesity specialists) Programs
- Summary & discussion: increase in caseloads, revenues, OAM membership, how the growth of obesity meds has affected the profession and practices
- Interview with the President of the Obesity Medicine Association and a bariatric practice consultant
- 2023 $ value, 2024 Marketdata Forecast: $ size of the market
Retail Meal Replacements & Appetite Suppressants Market
- Status Report of the market: background for OTC diet pills, meal replacements, relative strength of each product, popularity with dieters, major brands
Meal Replacements
- Analysis: spike in sales during the pandemic, why these products are so popular among consumers, medical and MLM weight loss providers
- 2020 -2023 market segment sales performance, why sales are falling due to obesity
- Drugs competition, data from Nutrition Business Journal
- Media Radar advertising spend data for GOLO, estimated revenues
- 2024 Marketdata Forecast
OTC weight loss supplements/diet pills
- Analysis of market, headwinds, List of top producers, legal actions by 3 states to curtail sales to minors
- 2020 -2023 market segment sales performance, the rise of GOLO
- 2024 Marketdata Forecast
Tables:
- Marketdata estimates of OTC diet pills, meal replacements, combined sales - 2005-2024 F
- U.S. Retail & MLM Sales of Meal Replacements, by brand/company: 2017-2023
- Top U.S. OTC appetite suppressant brand sales
2022-2023 Company Profiles and sales performance, company outlooks
- Slim-Fast (Glanbia plc)
- Herbalife
- Simply Good Foods (incl. Atkins Nutritionals)
Virtual Dieting - Weight Loss Apps
- Summary & discussion of their appeal
- Company Profile: Noom - company description, history, strategy, revenues, growth, problems, Noom enters the diet drugs market (Noom Clinical)
The Diet Soft Drinks & Artificial Sweeteners Market
- The Diet Soft Drinks Market
- Status Report: the move to zero sugar, diet’s share of all carbonated soft drinks, findings of Beverage Industry, Beverage Digest: trends in flavors, packaging, pricing, consumer behavior.
- 2020 -2023 market segment performance
- 2024 Marketdata Forecast
Table:
- 2000-2024 F diet soft drink $ sales
The Artificial Sweeteners Market
- Summary: Market closely related to diet soft drink consumption
- 2024 Marketdata Forecast
Table:
- 2000-2024 F artificial sweetener $ sales
Frozen Diet Dinner Entrees & Low-cal Foods Market
- Definition of “diet” foods, discussion of dinner entrees, the major brands
- Status Report: Reasons for the recent growth of frozen foods (healthy eating, convenience, Use by younger consumers) discussion, effects of the pandemic on usage, findings of Supermarket News, America, Frozen Food Institute, National Frozen & Refrigerated Foods Association
- 2020 -2023 market segment sales performance
- 2024 Marketdata Forecast
Table:
- Market size estimates for 2005 to 2023
- The major brands: 2017-2022 (Healthy Choice, Lean Cuisine, Smart Ones, Banquet).
Reference Directory of Industry Sources
- List/contacts for trade associations, trade journals, and market analysts
Companies Mentioned
- Atkins Nutritionals
- Glanbia (Slim-Fast)
- GOLO
- Herbalife
- HMR
- Jenny Craig
- Lilly
- Lindora
- Medifast
- Noom
- Novo Nordisk
- NutriSystem
- Profile by Sanford
- Simply Good Foods (Atkins)
- Slim-Fast (Glanbia plc)
- WW
Methodology
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