Telecommunications Network Operators: 3Q23 Market Review

Telco Topline Stages Recovery But Capex Slips Further; Margins Surge Amid Opex Cuts

This report reviews the growth and development of the telecommunications network operator (TNO, or telco) market. The report tracks a wide range of financial stats for 139 telcos across the globe, from 1Q11 through 3Q23. In the annualized 3Q23 period, telcos represented $1.76 trillion (T) in revenues (-3.5% YoY), $257.6 billion (B) in labor costs (-1.2% YoY), and $318.7B in capex (-3.5% YoY). They employed approximately 4.53 million people as of September 2023, down 1.6% from the prior year.

Below are the key highlights of the report:

Revenues: Telco topline grew slightly by 0.3% on a YoY basis to post $437.8 B in the latest single quarter ending 3Q23. Revenues for the annualized 3Q23 period were $1,759.4B, down 3.5% YoY over the same period in the previous year. In the last two quarters, YoY growth in service revenues has handily outpaced equipment revenues, as 5G device sales ease. At the operator level, five of the top 20 best performing telcos by topline growth in 3Q23 on an annualized basis include Saudi Telecom (7.8%), America Movil (6.9%), Airtel (6.0%), Charter Communications (1.9%), and Telefonica (1.7%). By the same criteria, the worst telco growth came from AT&T (-18.3%), KDDI (-8.6%), SoftBank (-7.0%), NTT (-6.1%), BT (-5.1%) during the same period.

Capex: Capex spending declined by 7.7% on a YoY basis to post $73.4B in the latest single quarter ending 3Q23. Capex for the annualized 3Q23 period was $318.7B, down 3.5% YoY over the same period in the previous year. At the operator level, five of the top 20 best performing telcos by capex growth in 3Q23 on an annualized basis include Airtel (43.2%), Reliance Jio (37.2%), Charter Communications (30.8%), Comcast (24.9%), and Telefonica (5.1%). By the same criteria, the worst capex growth came from China Unicom (-16.6%), China Mobile (-15.0%), BT (-14.9%), SoftBank (-11.7%), and AT&T (-7.7%) during the same period. Capital intensity is on the downswing: it was 16.8% in 3Q23, from 18.2% the year prior.

Opex and labor costs: Total opex for the telecom industry in the annualized 3Q23 period stood at $1,484.2B, a decrease of 4.7% over 3Q22 on YoY basis. Excluding depreciation and amortization (D&A) costs, total opex declined by 5.0% on YoY basis to record $1,147.7B in the annualized 3Q23 period. One significant element of telco opex is labor costs, which include salaries, wages, bonuses, benefits, and retirement/severance costs. Annualized labor costs declined by 1.2% YoY in 3Q23 over the annualized 3Q22 period. However, total opex declined faster, pushing labor costs as a percentage of opex (excluding D&A) up from 21.6% in annualized 3Q22 to 22.4% in annualized 3Q23. Annualized labor costs per employee grew slightly to $56.6K in 3Q23 compared to $56.2K the prior quarter.

Profitability margins: Both EBITDA and EBIT margins witnessed an uptick in the annualized 3Q23 period compared to 2Q23 - annualized EBIT margin grew from 15.4% in 2Q23 to 15.6% in 3Q23, while annualized EBITDA (operating) margin ended 3Q23 at 34.8%, as compared to 34.6% in the previous quarter.

Regional trends: The Americas region rebounded to become the single largest region by revenues in 3Q23 with 37.8% of the global share. On a capex basis too, the Americas region dominated the global share in the latest quarter with 37.8% share. Europe continued its lead into the latest quarter by having the highest regional capital intensity on an annualized basis: 19.7% capex/revenue ratio in 3Q23.