Splinternet - Thematic Research

The traditional internet is increasingly under threat from the ‘splinternet’, the term used to describe the fragmentation of the internet into competing technospheres. Increasingly, nation-states are imposing restrictions, increasing the pressure on the internet governance system established decades ago. On the one hand, liberal democracies are divided over safeguarding the global, open internet, prioritizing digital sovereignty. But on the other, the centralized model followed by autocratic regimes challenges the open internet by reshaping global norms and standards. Also, following the start of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in February 2022, Russia erected digital barricades, widening the gulf between competing digital spheres.

Key Highlights

• This gulf mirrors the distrust and dysfunction in international relations, from the risk of cyberattacks to increasing competition between the US and China, with the associated technology decoupling. Competing visions risk hindering the development of international governance across various digital segments, from cyberspace to internet infrastructure, to emerging technologies. This leaves severe regulatory gaps and increases security threats, as mechanisms to ensure data security, tackle cybercrime, and develop common ethical standards remain largely inadequate
• The costs of internet fragmentation are both economic and social. Digital fences across jurisdictions risk creating barriers for companies with global operations. Divergent regulation and compliance requirements create entry barriers for businesses. The divide between techno-ideological blocks adds to economic uncertainty and increases the threat to cybersecurity and supply chains. Most countries moving towards a restrictive internet model are emerging economies. However, digital authoritarianism does not only affect autocracies. Liberal democracies are also sources of technologies enabling digital surveillance and repression

Scope

• This report provides an overview of the splinternet theme
• It identifies the key trends impacting growth of the theme over the next 12 to 24 months, split into three categories: technology trends, macroeconomic trends, and regulatory trends
• It includes analysis of multiple data sets, including patents and social media trends, alongside a timeline highlighting milestones in the development of the splinternet
• The detailed value chain identifies four competing ideological models and looks at their impact on the internet infrastructure and regulation worldwide. The four models are the open model, normative model, authoritarian model, and hybrid model

Reasons to Buy

• Increasingly states are drawing national boundaries around the internet, spurred by competition to assert their authority. The costs of this resulting fragmentation are both economic and social. Digital fences across jurisdictions risk creating barriers for companies with global operations. Divergent regulation and compliance requirements create entry barriers for businesses. The divide between techno-ideological blocks adds to economic uncertainty and increases the threat to cybersecurity and supply chains
• This report provides an invaluable overview of the splinternet and its potential impacts