Thin-Film PV Module Market - Forecasts from 2022 to 2027

The global thin-film PV module market was valued at US$8.896 billion in 2020 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.81% over the forecast period to reach a total market size of US$11.557 billion in 2027.

Thin-film solar modules are made from thin-film solar cells. Thin-film solar cells (TFSCs) are second-generation solar cells made from multiple thin-film layers of photovoltaic (PV) materials. These solar cells have a fragile layer of thickness, measured in nanometers, compared to conventional P-N junction solar cells. As such, thin-film PV modules are more flexible and lighter in weight and are used in developing integrated photovoltaics.

The thin-film technology has been relatively economical despite being lesser efficient compared to the conventional c-Si (crystalline silicon) technology. However, this technology has significantly improved owing to constant research and development over the years. As a result of R&D, the efficiency of CdTe and CIGS PV cells is now over 21 percent which has outperformed multi-crystalline silicon, which still dominates the solar PV module industry.

The installation process of thin-film solar panels or modules is much easier and takes less effort than conventional silicon panels or modules. This is because thin-film solar panels are flexible and lightweight and can be applied in areas where conventional solar panels cannot be installed. Moreover, thin-film modules are made from thin-film solar cells, which contain a significantly lesser quantity of silicon which results in fewer emissions during their production as compared to standard solar modules. These modules need a larger area to be installed, such as commercial/institutional buildings, streets, forest areas, and large open/rooftop spaces. For example, thin-film modules can be used in street lights and traffic. These modules can also be installed on the rooftop of buses to power small appliances such as fans and Wi-Fi modems.

The rising focus on the renewable energy sector, especially solar, is significantly driving the demand for thin-film modules, thereby fuelling the market growth. Countries across the globe have set targets to increase the share of renewable energy sources in total electricity generation because of growing concerns regarding environmental sustainability, reduction in greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, and the rising cost of electricity. For example, In Australia, the country’s renewable energy target (RET) is a federal government policy that aims to generate at least 33,000 gigawatt-hours (GW) of the total electricity from renewable sources by 2020. Spain also aims at 120 GW of installed renewable energy, primarily wind and solar, capacity by 2030 under the country’s national integrated energy and climate plan (NECP 2021-30). Canada, with one of the cleanest electricity systems in the world, also has the target of increasing the share of zero-emitting renewable sources to 90 percent by 2030 from around 80 percent figure in 2016. In India, the government aims to install 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, out of which solar includes 100 GW. All these targets and goals to increase the overall share of renewable energy sources in total electricity generation are substantially driving the demand for thin-film modules worldwide.

Another major driver of the thin-film PV module market is the tariffs on crystalline silicon solar panels being imposed by the United States. The United States, for instance, imposed tariffs on silicon solar cells and modules in January 2018. Since the thin-film solar module is exempt from the 30 percent solar panel tariff, the demand for thin-film solar modules is significantly boosted in this country. As such, thin-film panel manufacturer First Solar expanded its Vietnam manufacturing plant with the construction of a new 1.2-GW facility in Ohio in order to meet its utility-scale demand.

However, thin-film modules still hold around 5 percent of the global solar PV market, while silicon-based solar modules hold around 95 percent of the global solar PV market. The importance of thin-film technology for large-scale power generation gained momentum around 2006 with the upsurge in the cost of silicon due to increased demand. However, silicon prices started declining from 2012 onwards, which, combined with the greater efficiency of c-Si modules compared to thin-film modules, shifted production towards c-Si technology. In terms of efficiency, thin-film modules are less efficient than silicon solar modules. The performance of thin-film modules is reduced due to degradation- the initial degradation (light-induced), age-related degradation, and potential-induced degradation.

Rising investments in research and development (R&D) to increase the efficiency of thin-film solar modules create a great opportunity for an increase in their adoption and, thus, share in the global solar PV market. For example, in December 2019, the German-Chinese joint venture, NICE Solar Energy GmbH, achieved a new world-record efficiency rate of 17.6 percent for CIGS thin-film solar modules. In September 2019, the Schwäbisch Hall-based enterprise NICE Solar Energy, the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), and the Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) joined forces to work on the Capitano project. This project aims to combine perovskite semiconductor-based thin-film solar modules with semiconductors made of CIGS (copper, indium, gallium, and selenium). This combination can result in efficient tandem solar cells with all the advantages of thin-film technology and an efficiency factor of around 30 percent.

North America holds a significant share in the global thin-film module market

By geography, the global thin-film module market has been segmented into five major regional markets- North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (MEA), and Asia Pacific (APAC).

North America accounted for a substantial share of the global thin-film module market in 2019. With tariff imposition on silicon-based PV modules by the United States in 2018, thin-film solar module manufacturing has increased, with U.S. manufacturer First Solar being one of the major market players in the global thin-film module market. According to the EIA (the U.S. Energy Information Administration), the country manufactured more than 600 MW of thin-film modules in 2019. After this tariff imposition, 8 GW of imported PV modules did not tariff in 2019, while most of these modules (4.3 GW) were thin-film modules. In October 2019, First Solar announced the start of production at its new PV module manufacturing facility in Ohio. This new production facility made the company’s total annualized production capacity equal to 1.9 GW in the United States. Both Ohio production facilities manufacture Series 6 module, which is a larger CdTe thin-film solar module and comparable in size to conventional 72-cell crystalline silicon modules. Europe also holds a decent share in the global thin-film module market throughout the forecast period owing to rising R&D activities and a high focus on the reduction of carbon footprints across the region. For instance, the European Sharc25 research project is working on optimizing the conversion efficiency of CIGSe thin-film technology from various angles, with a combination of theoretical modelling, experimental characterization, and sharing technical know-how among several leading research groups throughout the European region. European countries continuously increase their speed to meet their CO2 reduction targets while addressing their energy needs. The demand for thin-film solar modules is rising considerably in Europe, thus positively impacting the thin-film module market growth in the region. First Solar thin-film modules were selected by Photosol in 2017 to power 14 solar power plants, with a total capacity of 106.5 MW, located in Central and Southwest France. In 2018, Hanergy Thin Film Power Group announced the completion of Europe’s biggest flexible solar module project in Den Bosch, the Netherlands, by its U.S.-based subsidiary MiaSolé. Under this project, the company installed 418 lightweight, flexible modules on the roof of Maaaspoort Sports Center. Asia Pacific's (APAC) thin-film module regional market is projected to grow at a noteworthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the forecast period.

Key Developments

As a consequence of the rising demand for renewable energy and rising power consumption in industries and nations throughout the world, the geothermal power business has witnessed significant expansion.

In April 2022, First Solar Inc. announced that it has signed a master supply agreement (MSA) with Silicon Ranch, one of the nation's leading independent power producers, to deliver 4 gigawatts (GW) DC of innovative, responsibly-produced thin-film photovoltaic (PV) solar modules. Since 2015, the collaboration between these industry experts has expanded significantly across the United States, with more than 30 projects totalling more than 1 GW.

In April 2022, EPFL researchers in Neuchâtel created a tandem solar cell with a validated efficiency of 29.2 percent, as noted by EPFL. Combining a perovskite solar cell with a textured silicon solar cell enabled this breakthrough.

According to HyET Solar, in October 2021, Fortescue Future Industries (FFI), bought a 60% ownership in High Yield Energy Technologies (HyET) Group, based in the Netherlands, and has supplied the majority of funding for HyET Solar's Dutch Solar PV plant expansion. The acquisition is a significant step forward for FFI's goal of producing inexpensive green hydrogen by 2030, with a goal of supplying 15 million tonnes globally. HyET Solar started a design study for a 1 GW Powerfoil facility in Australia, and with the new acquisition, it plans to push costs down far faster than with traditional Solar PV technology.

COVID-19 Impact on Global Thin-Film PV Module Market

The recent global pandemic outbreak caused due COVID-19 has negatively impacted the growth of the thin-film PV module market. On the supply side, global supply chain disruption and reduction in productivity across manufacturing facilities due to mandatory social distancing measures have crippled the production of thin-film modules. On the demand side, solar installations have been hit hard by this pandemic, with subsequent lockdown and declining business spending leading to postponing of several solar projects.

Competitive Insights

Prominent key market players in the global thin-film PV module market include SOLAR FRONTIER K.K., United Solar Ovonic LLC, Soltecture Solartechnik GmbH, TS Solar GmbH, NanoPV Solar Inc, SoloPower Systems, Inc., Hanergy Thin Film Power Group Europe, FLISOM Flexible Solar Modules, First Solar, Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc., Antec Solar GmbH, and Toledo Solar Inc. These companies hold a noteworthy share in the market on account of their good brand image and product offerings. Major players in the global thin-film PV module market have been covered, along with their relative competitive position and strategies. The report also mentions recent deals and investments of different market players over the last two years.

Segmentation

By Type

Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS)

Amorphous Silicon (a-Si)

Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)

By Application

Building Integrated PV

Rooftop applications

Utility-scale applications

By Geography

North America

United States

Canada

Mexico

South America

Brazil

Argentina

Others

Europe

Germany

France

UK

Italy

Others

Middle East and Africa

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Others

Asia Pacific

China

India

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

Thailand

Indonesia

Others