China Almond Market - Forecasts from 2022 to 2027

China’s almond market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.65% to reach US$572.303 million by 2027, from US$364.579 million in 2020.

China’s almond production (shelled-basis) was forecasted at 45,000 MT in MY 2019/20 (August-July), which slightly increased from the previous year. The favourable growing conditions in the Xinjiang region, particularly in Shache County, which accounts for more than 95 % of the country’s almond production, are one of the main reasons for the aforesaid. Currently, the almond acreage, which is reportedly estimated at around 63,000 hectares, remains stable. Further, due to the lack of proper crop management and agricultural inputs, China’s almond yield is reportedly meager. Besides, Xinjiang almond varieties are reportedly unable to compete with imported varieties such as Carmel, Independence, Monterey, and Nonpareil. The primary markets for almonds produced in Shache County are restricted within the province and are not exported outside the province.

However, despite a rapidly developing tree nut industry, China is expected to continue to rely on imported almonds, among others, in the future as well. It is estimated that the higher tariffs on nuts originating from the USA will compel Chinese importers to look for other sources of nuts as well. China’s almond imports were forecasted to decrease in MY 2019/20 (August-July), as the Chinese government imposed another 10-percent tariff on U.S. nuts, effective September 1, 2019. Although Chinese importers are searching for substitute suppliers like Australia, no single nation can provide enough almonds to accommodate this booming market despite the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. China’s total almond imports increased during MY 2018/19, as importers tried every possible means to fulfil their signed contracts. The demand for almonds is expected to be driven by China’s snack food market, which has reportedly integrated innovative means of production. Further snacking preferences have moved to more upscale offerings. For instance, melon seeds and peanuts that are produced locally are being replaced by imported nuts, such as almonds, among others. The other factors, like presentation and packaging, have changed from in-shell nut to shelled nuts; single variety nut packages to mixed nuts packages; rough processed to multiple processed (including chocolate and yoghurt coated seven unclassified nuts); simple flavour to complex flavor with dried fruits; from large packages to small/single-serving packages. Also, some brands develop products with specific nut combinations to target niche markets that are expected to augment the China almond market growth. Besides the expanding bakery industry, the country is known to use U.S. almonds, among others, as ingredients in a variety of products [Source: USDA]. Another factor in reinforcing the growth of this market is the availability of plant-based snack options, which are gaining momentum in the Chinese market.

By application, the snacks segment is anticipated to account for the greatest revenue market share during the forecast period. The popularity of almond-based snacks has increased, resulting in this increase. Cracker demand rises steadily during the epidemic, owing to growing snack consumption and people's desire for healthier snacking. As a result, producers are incorporating almonds into crackers, which provide a delicious flavour as well as health advantages, resulting in increased cracker sales. Consumer preferences for healthier savory snacks are forcing snack manufacturers to get creative with novel snack mixes, which is fueling the snack mix industry's growth. As a result, there is a huge need for healthy snacks.

Recent Developments

Ezaki Glico, a Japanese confectionary firm, released its Almond Koka brand in China in November 2021, and in just two months, it became the best-selling almond milk product on Tmall.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced in May 2020 that China will increase the number of speciality crops it imports from the United States under the Phase 1 trade deal, including a number of California-grown crops. On behalf of all of California agriculture, Blue Diamond Growers, a non-profit cooperative as well as the world's biggest processor and marketer of almonds, welcomes the above news and recognizes the effort that officials in both China and the United States are attempting to make this trade agreement successful during this time of economic uncertainty.

Select Harvests, a Melbourne-based almond company, increased its commercial efforts in July 2018 by establishing a brand license and distribution arrangement with PepsiCo Foods, a Chinese company. For the next five years, Select's Lucky brand of nuts & seeds will be sold and supplied throughout China.

COVID-19 Impact

In China, the COVID-19 epidemic had a direct and unfavorable effect on the almond market. Due to a lack of purchasing power in China as a result of the lockdowns, demand for almonds has been impacted. Furthermore, according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity, China's almond imports plummeted from US$280 million in 2019 to US$182 million in 2020, indicating a significant drop in almond consumption.

Segmentation

By Type

• Shelled
• Inshell

By Application

• Snacks
• Confectionaries
• Bakery Products
• Dairy Products
• Desserts & Sweets
• Breakfast Cereals

By Distribution Channel

• Supermarket and Hypermarket
• Convenience Store
• Online Channels