Condensed Milk Market - Forecasts from 2022 to 2027

The global condensed milk market is predicted to grow at a CAGR of 9.01% from a market value of US$8.430 billion in 2020 to achieve a market value of US$15.422 billion by the end of 2027.

The condensed milk industry is projected to witness significant growth by the forecast period, along with the growing demand for processed dairy products. The increasing utilization of condensed milk to develop chocolate and confectionery items is further augmenting the market demand in the forecast period. Also, with the growing consumption of Tea and coffee beverages, condensed milk finds substantial application in Tea and coffee whitening, further propelling the market demand during the forecast period. Furthermore, with the increasing purchasing power of the consumers, especially in the world's developing regions, condensed milk is gaining traction among customers for utilization in a variety of cuisines. With the evolving nutritional trends, consumers demand products that include sustainably produced raw materials and are vegetable or vegan-based. This offers further offering growth opportunities for the market to grow along with the adoption of new customer dietary requirements. Moreover, companies working towards investments in new packaging options that satisfy the customers’ needs as per their requirements are further contributing to bolstering the market growth during the forecast period.

COVID-19 impacts on the condensed milk industry:

It has been observed that the current novel coronavirus has significantly impacted the manufacturing of various products at the global level. Condensed milk has also been affected by the deadly pandemic; It has been noticed that out-of-home consumption has stopped entirely due to the closure of restaurants and other public gathering places. , t This has further resulted in causing a market decline with a decrease in product sales in 2020. On the other hand, in-home consumption is growing at a rapid pace.

The immense utilization of condensed milk in the food and confectionary industry is propelling the market growth over the next five years.

Condensed milk is utilized as one of the essential milk ingredients to prepare varied food items in the food and confectionery industry industries. It is used to prepare high-quality caramel fillings, chocolate bars, toffees, ice creams, and a variety of desserts and sweets. Hence, market growth looks quite promising in the forecast period. The quality of the finished product is highly dependent on the quality and recipe of the sweetened condensed milk utilized in the form of an ingredient. It is responsible for providing a unique caramel taste and contributes to influencing the desired consistency and mouthfeel of the finished product. In addition, the fat content, dry matter content, and sugar content are also of prime importance during the production of condensed milk for different food applications. There are specific standards and requirements that every industry is expected to follow to achieve the desired product. For example, in Germany, condensed milk is produced according to the stringent requirements of the German Milk Products Regulation. The regulation is responsible for regulating the ingredients during reduced milk production. The products are listed in three categories as per their fat content. These include sweetened condensed milk containing sweetened, condensed whole milk with around 8% fat content; the other category comprises sweetened semi-skimmed condensed milk containing sweetened, semi-skimmed condensed whole milk with a fat content of between 1% to 8%. At the same time, the last category consists of sweetened condensed skimmed milk containing sweetened condensed skimmed milk with a fat content of up to 10%.

Furthermore, it has been realized that technology and process control of manufacturing companies also play an essential role in determining the properties of sweetened condensed milk ingredients. Additionally, the quality of raw milk material is necessary to consider while producing condensed milk for manufacturing finished goods in the food and confectionary industry. Hence, by selecting the right supplier for manufacturing its industrial interests, the market is projected to strengthen its footprint in the growing food industry.

Novel packaging options provide market growth opportunities during the forecast period.

It has been observed that besides the recipes and quality of condensed milk, buyers seek suitable packaging options too. Whether large or small containers, whether for domestic consumption in regional markets or exports to other parts of the world, efficient packaging holds significance. This is mainly because while exporting a product to distant countries, efficient product packaging helps provide necessary protection to the products during transport, saving considerable losses to the company. In addition, packaging must be highly suitable as per the different customers’ requirements. Sweetened condensed milk products are commonly available in sterile steel containers, drums, and loading loaded in tankers. Furthermore, there are other packaging options, including bag-in-box, BIB containing one-way and reusable containers, which are also quite popular. The packaging capacity includes up to around 1000 kg, while smaller cartons have up to 25 kg.

There is a high demand for new packaging options in markets where there is a requirement for smaller fillings, mainly in the case of bulk consumers. This includes smaller bag-in-box systems with around 5 kg and more. These further contribute to closing the gap between the essential can for end-consumers and standard bulk containers. Hence, they are in high demand among restaurants and catering caterers. In addition, smaller artisanal processors from the confectionery, bakery, ice cream parlours, and small speciality companies are also interested in this type of packaging. Furthermore, with companies investing in novel packaging options for sweetened condensed milk for B2-B consumers, the market is projected to hold robust growth prospects over the next five years.

The global condensed milk market is segmented into online and offline distribution channels based on the distribution channel.

By the end of the forecast period, it is projected that offline sales will continue to dominate. On the other hand, with rising internet penetration, the online mode of sales channel is estimated to increase at a high growth rate during the forecast period.

Covid-19 Impact

During the pandemic, the popularity of condensed milk consumption at home is raising. However, the novel coronavirus has been discovered to have had a significant impact on the global production of a wide range of products. Condensed milk has also been influenced by the deadly pandemic; due to the closure of HoReCa and other public meeting places, out-of-home intake has completely ceased, resulting in a demand decline with a drop in sales revenue in 2020. Many bakery shops that used condensed milk temporarily closed their doors due to a lack of manpower and limited financial sales of all items during the peak of the disease outbreak. Furthermore, the lockdown impacted the supply chain, culminating in the unavailability of product lines that met users' needs, eventually affecting the market. Furthermore, the inaccessibility of raw material during the lockdown hampered output in none of these sectors.

Recent Developments

In May 2021, Nestle has launched a Plant-Based Condensed Milk Substitute made from rice and oat flour for vegan pastries and treats. As per the company, the product is suitable for making caramel slices, chocolate chip cookies, and brownies, without the use of milk products.

Segmentation:

By Type

• Sweetened Condensed Milk
• Unsweetened Condensed Milk

By Application

• Biscuits & Pastries
• Chocolate & Confectionery
• Ice Creams
• Beverages

By End-User

• Household
• Commercial

By Distribution Channel

• Online
• Offline

By Geography

• North America
• USA
• Canada
• Mexico
• South America
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Europe
• UK
• Germany
• France
• Middle East and Africa
• UAE
• Israel
• Saudi Arabia
• Asia Pacific
• Japan
• China
• India
• Thailand
• Indonesia
• Taiwan