Impact of Inflation on the World Economy and Key Sectors (Agriculture, Automotive, Financial services, Consumer and Retail) - Thematic Research

1. Agriculture
2. Automotive
3. Financial services
4. Consumer
5. Retail

• Appendix 1: Glossary
• Appendix 2: Thematic Research Methodology
• About the Publisher
• Contact the Publisher

Table 1: Automotive: impact assessment
Table 2: Insurtech sector sees investment dry up as tough economic conditions hit hard - Selected examples of insurtechs that have recently announced redundancies

Figure 1: US: A fresh credit cycle will support higher inflation in the 2020s; inflation is a process that is financed 2020s and bank loan to deposit ratios are at their lowest since the early 1950s
Figure 2: China : Loss of competitiveness will crimp Chinese wage growth and create a space for faster gains in DM labor costs
Figure 3: Euro area: is stagflation becoming embedded?
Figure 4: UK: all eyes on wages
Figure 5: Commodity prices probably have peaked
Figure 6: US: input cost inflation abating but pricing power lingering
Figure 7: China: oil price fall should ease margin pressure
Figure 8: EA: imported inflation coming off but domestic problems
Figure 9: Food prices retreat but remain high
Figure 10: US input costs coming off
Figure 11: Futures prices still suggest moderate pork price pressure for China
Figure 12: EA survey suggests input costs are just turning the corner
Figure 13: Underlying imbalances remain……suggesting US margins will benefit as input prices recede
Figure 14: China: goods demand disappointed in 2022 lockdowns
Figure 15: As with the US, the level of prices looks exposed to downward correction in the EA
Figure 16: Korean semiconductor export prices have rolled over
Figure 17: US vehicle pricing remains elevated though pace is cooling
Figure 18: Saving of high income households during COVID supported strong demand for SUVs and foreign cars
Figure 19: EA: easing in bottlenecks has given some relief to production but this has not yet filtered through to prices
Figure 20: Chinese labor uncompetitiveness lifts the lid off DM wage
Figure 21: Sticky wage growth will keep US services inflation hot
Figure 22: China: labor markets have deteriorated sharply, and pricing power was already weak
Figure 23: French survey suggests still strong wage growth but hiring intentions are softening
Figure 24: Residential prices have run away during the pandemic
Figure 25: US: Even at this stage, the backlog in single family homes yet to be started remains at a record
Figure 26: China input prices remain on a weakening trend as the property sector slump extends
Figure 27: EA construction stands to receive a boost from public investment
Figure 28: Mexico: Headline CPI is likely to peak in Q3/22, but Banxico will carry on hiking rates in the coming months amid still rising core inflation and ongoing Fed tightening
Figure 29: Contribution of key components to headline CPI (%)
Figure 30: CPI key components (% YoY change) and key policy rate (%)
Figure 31: Food prices - Commodity prices have been rising since 2021, but for some more than others
Figure 32: FAO price index - Commodity prices have been rising since 2021, but for some more than others
Figure 33: Selected commodity prices - Ukraine/Russia are important sources of wheat, corn/maize, and sunflower oil
Figure 34: Selected commodity prices - Black sea share of global corn, wheat sugar
Figure 35: Selected oilseed prices - Selected commodity assessments
Figure 36: Sugar prices - Selected commodity assessments
Figure 37: Wheat and Corn/maize prices - Selected commodity assessments
Figure 38: Coffee/Cocoa prices - Selected commodity assessments
Figure 39: Fertiliser prices, EU and US Gulf - Input prices are still high
Figure 40: US Customer facing transaction prices, US$
Figure 41: Light Vehicle Selling Rates, 2019 = 100
Figure 42: Production Disruption by Quarter
Figure 43: Global Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
Figure 44: Vehicle Body Composition
Figure 45: Vehicle Powertrain Composition
Figure 46: Investment assets of households by major asset class, globally
Figure 47: Investment allocations, total market globally
Figure 48: Global private wealth managers as of Q2 2021
Figure 49: Global private wealth managers as of Q2 2021
Figure 50: Australian balances outstanding, $B
Figure 51: HK balances outstanding, $B
Figure 52: New Zealand balances outstanding, $B
Figure 53: US balances outstanding, $B
Figure 54: Total global investment into insurtech, 2018 2022 YTD ($M)
Figure 55: How much do you pay for your car insurance cover per year? 2021
Figure 56: Reasons for switching motor insurance provider at renewal (%), 2021
Figure 57: Financial concerns among UK income protection policyholders (%), 2021
Figure 58: Global: How concerned are you about the following factors? , Q2 2022
Figure 59: Global: How concerned are you about the following factors?“ Impact of Inflation/personal financial situation, Q2 2022
Figure 60: The impact of inflation on my household budget
Figure 61: The cost of home energy bills
Figure 62: The cost of fuel for my car
Figure 63: The cost of my mortgage / rental payments
Figure 64: United States: The impact of inflation on my household budget by age and income
Figure 65: India: The cost of home energy bills by age and income
Figure 66: Global: retail sales value and volume 2021-2024, food and drink super categories
Figure 67: Global market forecasts 20212024 compared with 2016 2019 performance
Figure 68: US: “How would you describe you spend on the following products?“, Q1 vs Q3 2022
Figure 69: Staying with the brands I usually buy, but buying less - “How do you see your purchasing choices evolving over the next three months?” Q3 2022
Figure 70: Switching to cheaper stores / cheaper outlets - “How do you see your purchasing choices evolving over the next three months?” Q3 2022
Figure 70: “How do you see your purchasing choices evolving over the next three months?” Q3 2022
Figure 71: Stopping buying certain products altogether because they are becoming too expensive - “How do you see your purchasing choices evolving over the next three months?” Q3 2022
Figure 72: Eating out at restaurants - “How do you see your purchasing choices evolving over the next three months?” Q3 2022
Figure 73: United Kingdom: Switching to cheaper stores / cheaper outlets by age and incom - How do you see your purchasing choices evolving over the next three months?” Q3 2022
Figure 74: Australia: Eating out at restaurants by age and income - How do you see your purchasing choices evolving over the next three months?” Q3 2022
Figure 75: Global: OBP Value CAGR 2021-2024, compared to OBP Volume recovery 2019 (pre pandemic) versus 2024
Figure 76: US: “How would you describe you spend in the following outlets?“, Q1 vs Q3 2022
Figure 77: Prices UK CPI Annual Growth %
Figure 78: UK Interest Rate %
Figure 79: UK Unemployment Rate %
Figure 80: UK gross household income 2019/20 --% share of individuals by household
Figure 81: How concerned are you about your personal financial situation? % of UK consumers
Figure 82: Consumers’ inflation views by product and service %
Figure 83: What will consumers spend less or more on % ?
Figure 84: Responses to the question: With the price of goods expected to rise by at least 5% this year, how do you think your shopping ha bits will change for the following items?
Figure 85: How consumers intend to change their clothing & footwear shopping habits due to rising prices, by demographic
Figure 86: How consumers intend to change their homewares shopping habits due to rising prices, by demographic
Figure 87: UK annual retail market growth year on year
Figure 88: 2022 UK sector share (%) of consumer expenditure in retail 2019, 2022
Figure 89: 2022 UK spend scenario