US Avocado Market - Forecasts from 2022 to 2027

US avocado market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.04% to reach US$4.478 billion by 2027, from US$2.971 billion in 2020.

U.S. per capita consumption of avocados is rapidly rising; for instance, in the 2010/11 season, per capita consumption was 4 pounds, and by 2018/19, it more than doubled to 9.24 pounds (Source: USDA). From the perspective of production capacity as per USDA, previous estimates by the California Avocado Commission (CAC) suggest an increase in state-wide avocado production for the season 2019/20 (November-October) which is in the order of 369 million pounds, a growth by 70% from their estimate of the 2018/19 crop which is accounted for 216.6 million pounds.

The tendency of this year's harvest to be greater than the last year's reportedly low harvest is due to the alternate-bearing nature of the tree. Further, as a result of heavy rains during the last year's winter season, the trees are healthy, which is expected to stimulate production.

Moreover, USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service has reportedly depicted avocado shipments in January and February 2020 as above normal, facilitated by large crops and high prices. Also, it is important to note that as per USDA, shipments of Californian avocados amounted to 1.14 million pounds during January and February. Whereas shipments during the same period in 2020 reportedly reached 22.63 million pounds, representing an increase of 1,885.08 % in just over a year.

California accounts for over 80% of the avocado production in the US. Further, it is important to note that growers in the U.S. wait for fruit quality to reach its peak because avocados can mature on trees for an extended period.

Further, the growing cognizance of plant-based alternatives, and a healthy diet, among others, is expected to propel the US avocado market to unprecedented heights during the forecast period. A recent example is the introduction of Beyond Tacos at all Del Taco locations throughout the US, as reported in April 2019, offering the same amount of protein as their seasoned beef tacos. Beyond Avocado Taco (vegan), which encompasses Del Taco seasoned Beyond Meat plant-based crumbles, and hand-sliced avocado, among others, is one of the two initial offerings of Beyond Meat menu items.

Another example is the launch of the plant-based butter alternative by US-based Country Crock in September 2019. The product reportedly constitutes plant-based oils derived from avocados, among other sources. Further, it is also gluten-free and kosher-certified, and being plant-based by the Plant-Based Foods Association (PBFA), it has been made suitable for vegan diets. On the other hand, the demand for avocados by consumers in the U.S. has been responded to with the reported opening of the world's first casual restaurant focused entirely on avocados called AvoEatery as a result of a partnership between Avocados from Mexico and TRINITY GROVES during February 2019 in Dallas.

Key Developments

April 2022: With a new installation at the company's plant in Michoacán, Mexico, West Pak Avocado announced the extension of its Apeel treatment capabilities. In 2021, the first installation was conducted at West Pak's factory in Murrieta, California. With the addition of the Michoacán facility in early 2022, the company's ability to provide Apeel-protected avocados will be greatly increased.

January 2022: The California Avocado Commission's preseason projection for 2022 predicts a 306-million pound harvest, an increase of roughly 15% from the previous fiscal year. The Hass variety will account for the majority of the crop; however, Lamb Hass, GEM, and other kinds are also commercially farmed.

April 2021: West Pak Inc. reported that the company's promotional campaign, “The Avo Effect campaign” earned a Silver ADDY award at the American Advertising Awards in San Diego 2021. The Avo Effect won in the Integrated Advertising Campaign category, which was created and developed by the Visual Content Agency (VCA) of San Diego, California.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a global economic slowdown. With the introduction of strict lockdown and social distancing rules, most industries suffered significant losses. However, the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive influence on the US avocado market. The lockdown rules led to a slight initial decline in demand, however, the avocado market quickly rebounded, owing to the growing demand. According to the USDA, Mexico exported 1.2 million metric tonnes of avocados to the United States in 2021. Also, 2.1 billion pounds of avocados were imported from Mexico to the United States during the 2019-2020 period, according to a Texas A&M University study. This increase in demand was due to the increasing adoption of healthy food habits among people, and the introduction of various government initiatives. Moreover, with the withdrawal of most COVID-19 protocols, the region is anticipated to report significant growth in demand.

Segmentation

By Type

• Hass Avocado
• Bacon Avocado

By Industry

• Food and Beverage
• Cosmetic

By Distribution Channel

• Online
• Offline
• Convenience stores