The report on the Motor Claims and Vehicle body repair market 2022-2023, provides extensive and in-depth coverage of the market challenges including repair volume, cost, and dynamics.
As in previous reports, the comprehensive analysis and commentary seek to consider trends in the market and forecast using researched data.
The internationally recognised report is of interest to: motor insurance companies, vehicle manufacturers, bodyshop networks, bodyshop groups, paint and distribution companies plus other product manufacturers within the supply chain, trade bodies and media.
Table of Contents
- Section 1 - Preface
- Section 2 - Executive Summary
- Section 3 - Report Partners and Sponsors
- Section 4 - Market Background and Developments
- Section 5 - Market Size and Trends
- Section 6 - Bodyshop Market Survey
- Section 7 - Repairs by Vehicle Make
- Section 8 - Revolution in Vehicle Technology
- Section 9 - UK Motor Insurance Trends
- Section 10 - Future Industry Trends
- Section 11 - References
- Appendix - Zap-Map EV Charging Market Summary & Survey
List of Figures
Figure 1 - UK GDP quarterly trend 1955-2022
Figure 1a - UK GDP Quarterly trend 2019-2022
Figure 2 - UK GDP quarterly trend 2007- 2022
Figure 3 - Contributions to monthly GDP growth 2021-2022 (July)
Figure 4 - UK GDP quarterly trend 2018-2022
Figure 5 - Contributions to quarterly GDP growth 2022-22
Figure 6 - Real GDP scenarios OBR 2018-2027
Figure 7 - UK monthly unemployment rate 2007-2022
Figure 8 - UK employed, unemployed and inactive 2007-2022
Figure 9 - Labour supply and demand 2020-2022
Figure 10 - Average earnings and RPI trend 2002-2022
Figure 11 - Economic Forecasts
Figure 12 - Total economic support given through the pandemic
Figure 13 - Consumer confidence 2011- 2022 (June)
Figure 14 - Consumer confidence index vs. New Car sales 2010-2022
Figure 15 - CPI 1989-2022 (Aug)
Figure 16 - CPIH Rolling 12-months
Figure 17 - CPIH vs Food & Beverages 2012-2022
Figure 18 - Base rate of interest 2000- 2022
Figure 19 - Inflation predictions
Figure 20 - Interest rate predictions
Figure 21 - How have energy costs changed in the last 12-months? Survey response
Figure 22 - No of licensed cars and LCVs in the car park (GB) 2010-2021
Figure 23 - Consumer car finance trends 2017-2022
Figure 24 - UK new & used car registrations (‘000) 2014 to 2022 (June YTD, Full year est.)
Figure 25 - UK new car registrations and used car sales % indexed Jan 2010 to 2022
Figure 26 - Household Car Availability 2020
Figure 27 - estimated license holders (UK)
Figure 28 - driving license holding in England by age 1975- 2020
Figure 29 - average number of trips (per person, per year) by main transport mode 2002 - 2020
Figure 30 - Miles driven 2010-2020, by vehicle type
Figure 31 - Vehicle Miles travelled in GB 2010-2020
Figure 32 - UK use of transport statistics, mobility trends 2020-2022
Figure 33 - Average Road fuels sales to august 2022
Figure 34 - Approx. Length of car ownership 2000 to 2022 forecast to 2024
Figure 35 - Age of cars in use on UK roads 2010-2019
Figure 36 - Age of cars in use on UK roads 2010-2021
Figure 37 - Car Segment 2010-2019
Figure 38 - Top selling new cars in 2018-2021
Figure 39 - Growth of plug-in vehicles Q1 2022
Figure 40 - LCV registrations- 2010 to 2021
Figure 41 - Revised SMMT new car sales 2016 to 2023 prediction
Figure 42 - ICE vs EV new car registrations 2016 to predicted 2023
Figure 43 - Forecast gap between EV’s on roads and EV technicians
Figure 44 - Charging Network growth over time UK
Figure 44 - Survey response - Percentage of repairs using Green / Recycled parts
Figure 45 - Which best describes your business strategy? Survey Response
Figure 46 - Current availability capacity? Survey response
Figure 47 - Total number of bodyshops 2010-2021 to 2023
Figure 48 - Largest independent bodyshop businesses by annualised turnover 2021
Figure 49 - Largest franchise dealer bodyshop businesses 2021
Figure 50 - Total repair volumes split by work provision
Figure 51- Capacity vs. Demand in the UK Repair Market 2022
Figure 52 - Bodyshops vs. demand in the UK market 2022
Figure 53 - Bodyshops by size 2010-2034
Figure 54 - Repair estimate notifications via Audatex 2019 to 2022
Figure 55 - Caps unique claims Jan to Sept 2021
Figure 56 - Caps regional analysis Jan 2022 to Sept 2022
Figure 57 - Audatex vs Caps trends July 21 to Sept 22
Figure 58 - UK car body repair market value (estimated) 2013-2022
Figure 59 - Market Value lost to the pandemic in lost repair volume 2019-2022
Figure 60 - Year on Year average repair cost increases 2021-2022 (July)
Figure 61 - Year on Year repair cost increases 2017-2022 July
Figure 62 - Segmentation of repair market by value 2012- 2023(est)
Figure 63 - Repair Cost vs. CPI 2013-2022
Figure 64 - Global Shipping reliability
Figure 65 - Parts Shipping data 2019-2022 and Rolling 12-months
Figure 66 - Trend of repairs missing at least 1 part 2020-2022
Figure 67 - Trend of Lead time and Key to Key Jan 2021-Oct 2022
Figure 67a - Trend showing Cycle time, Lead time and Key to Key rolling-12 months
Figure 68 - Percentage of staff under 25 years old Survey response
Figure 69 - Percentage of staff on Apprentice scheme Survey response
Figure 70 - Staff cost changes since 2019 Survey response
Figure 71 - Change in Parts merging since 2019 Survey response
Figure 72 - Change in Paint margin since 2019 Survey response
Figure 73 - Change in Labour margin since 2019 Survey Response
Figure 74 - Change in repair volumes since 2019 Survey response
Figure 75 - Available Capacity Survey response
Figure 76 - Views on the longevity of the capacity problem Survey response
Figure 77 - Current business planning Survey response
Figure 78 - Industry trends most worried short term about Survey Response
Figure 78a - Industry trends most worried 3-5 years about Survey response
Figure 79 - Average repair costs (Cars & LCV’s) 2013-2022
Figure 80 - Average repair costs vs. Indexed costs 2013-2022
Figure 81 - Percentage of Electric Vehicle repairs
Figure 82 - Comparison or EV vs ICE costs Jan 2022 data for comparative models
Figure 83 - Comparison of EV vs ICE average repair costs 2019-2022
Figure 84 - Analysis of car repair volume by marque 2019-2021
Figure 85 - Analysis of ave. repair costs by marque 2020- 2021
Figure 86 - Percentage difference in costs by marque 2020 to 2021
Figure 87 - Segmented repair costs by marque 2020 & 2021
Figure 88 - Average Gross margins by marque 2021
Figure 89 - Total Gross margins by marque 2021
Figure 90 - Highest labour rates and repair times by marque 2021
Figure 91 - Leading UK Motor Insurers by GWP 2020-21
Figure 92 - Leading UK Motor Insurer changes in market Share 2021-22
Figure 93 - Credit Suisse predicted motor rate increases 2022-23
Figure 94 - Motor Insurance Complaints FOS submitted 2014-22
Figure 95 - Breakdown of Car Insurance complaints 2018-2022
Executive Summary
Whilst the economic and political situations remain uncertain, moving so rapidly that the economic section of this report has had several re-writes, the working patterns within the industry have hit upon a ‘new normal’ with consistency in many factors such as traffic volumes, repair volumes and the resulting repair cycle times.
Bodyshops have had to adapt to almost all factors impacting their business negatively since the pandemic and have found new ways of working as a result, with the latest significant energy cost increases this is becoming more and more challenging. In this new-normal position, work providers have varied the triage and direct to repairers, repairers also triage the damage to help in securing parts and providing some degree of service certainty- a further challenging dynamic for the industry which has increased demand for green parts.
The main areas of focus for everyone now are clearly Energy costs, for both consumers and businesses (despite the Energy plan announced by the government), NBRA reporting a threefold increase in costs which will require significant support. Some Insurers have announced one-off payments and some increasing labour rates to help. This forms part of the fastest rise in inflation for 41 years leading to increased pressure on interest rates, which are now also rising rapidly as we head into an official recession (if Q4 GDP contracts), putting real pressure on the cost of production for all industries and therefore rising sale prices - from everything, everyday food & fuel as well as vehicle repairs.
One thing is for certain, repair costs are rising rapidly as a result, causing Insurers issues trying to predict accurately where claims inflation will land and how much of this they can push into rates, at a time consumers are so uncertain of their own finances and in a very competitive pricing market.
The full extent of this has not been seen yet.
Finally, this all comes at a time when we have seen a further reduction in number of bodyshops post-pandemic; creating further challenges for Insurers to navigate, coupling increasing costs with reducing quality capacity. We have delved into all this in detail through this report.
Methodology
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