Latin American Commercial Vehicle (CV) Growth Opportunities, Forecast to 2030

Propulsion Alternatives to Diesel will Gain Momentum during the Medium Term of the Forecast Period (2025-2026)

Overall commercial vehicle (CV) units in Latin America (LATAM) are expected to reach 1.5 million units by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% between 2021 and 2030. Infrastructure investment, mining development and exports, multimodal transportation projects, and agro-based farm equipment manufacturing will drive industry growth in the coming decade. eCommerce growth will drive demand for the intercity transportation of various goods and urban distribution trucks. As the COVID-19 pandemic declined, global commodities markets recovered; demand outpaced supply and resulted in higher prices and exports in the region. These factors are expected to be the major drivers for commercial truck demand in the short and long terms.

Brazil and Mexico contribute 68% of LATAM's CV units; pickups dominate both countries and account for 69% of the region's LCV sales. Most countries in LATAM focus on renewable energy sources for the energy transition from fossil fuels; the electromobility strategy will also drive the growth of alternate powertrain vehicles. Companies are likely to leverage government support for electromobility to create common platforms for vehicles across different regions and quickly scale up operations to achieve maximum profitability.

European OEMs dominate the market and account for three-fifths of all CV sales in the region. Daimler, Traton, and Volvo, the top 3 sellers, account for two-thirds of the market share. Many Chinese OEMs, including Foton, SAIC, JAC, Changan, and Dongfeng, have established their presence in LATAM and are expected to compete aggressively against European OEMs in the coming years. Higher infrastructure spending and mining development and trade activities in the region are likely to be the major drivers for heavy-duty truck demand. The growing ecosystem of truck OEMs, bodybuilders, and fleets that will cater to this rising demand will have a positive impact on allied sectors.