The UK Food & Grocery report offers a comprehensive insight into the Food & Grocery market in the UK, analysing the sector, the major players, the main trends, and consumer attitudes, as well as providing market forecasts out to 2027.
The total UK food & grocery market is forecast to be worth £185.7bn in 2023, up 8.0% on the previous year. High food inflation and volume declines beginning in 2022 have severely impacted consumer shopping habits and weakened the position of the Big Four in the food & grocery market due to higher operational costs and the growing threat of discounters. Intense price matching and loyalty scheme initiatives have also saturated the UK food & grocery market as retailers tussle to retain appeal. Lower forecasted food inflation in 2024 will require grocers to investment more in online capabilities, product innovation and personalisation to demonstrate added value and entice spend from an increasingly mobile customer base. Yet, prospects remain strong for the sector with the compound annual growth rate forecast to be 3.6% between 2022 and 2027, up from 3.3% witnessed between 2017 and 2022.
The total UK food & grocery market is forecast to be worth £185.7bn in 2023, up 8.0% on the previous year. High food inflation and volume declines beginning in 2022 have severely impacted consumer shopping habits and weakened the position of the Big Four in the food & grocery market due to higher operational costs and the growing threat of discounters. Intense price matching and loyalty scheme initiatives have also saturated the UK food & grocery market as retailers tussle to retain appeal. Lower forecasted food inflation in 2024 will require grocers to investment more in online capabilities, product innovation and personalisation to demonstrate added value and entice spend from an increasingly mobile customer base. Yet, prospects remain strong for the sector with the compound annual growth rate forecast to be 3.6% between 2022 and 2027, up from 3.3% witnessed between 2017 and 2022.
Scope
- The online UK food & grocery market declined 12.0% in 2022 to £20.0bn against strong comparative sales in 2020 and 2021. The outlook for the online food & grocery market is limited in 2023, with online growth forecast to remain broadly flat versus the previous year as consumers trade down to discounters operating predominantly in the offline channel and the added expense of online shopping will lead to a fall in demand for online orders.
- Despite food inflation having reached a peak of 19.2% in March 2023, a decline in the rate of inflation has been slower to materialize than previously expected. Value for money, price and quality are the most significant drivers for those purchasing food & groceries.
- Aldi and Lidl are expected to see the most significant increase in market share this year as the discounters continue to gain new customers who are trading away from traditional supermarkets to save money on their food & grocery bills.
Reasons to Buy
- Using our five year forecasts to 2027, learn which subcategories in the food & grocery market will be the fastest performing to enable focus and investment in these winning product areas.
- Understand how drivers of food & grocery purchases, such as range, price and quality, vary in importance among different demographics in order to maximise sales potential.
- Use our in-depth analysis of the challenges faced by key retailers in the sector in order to understand how to steal shoppers and market share.
Table of Contents
- Executive summary
- Online food & grocery penetration lags behind 2021-levels as the cost-of-living crisis squeezes disposable income
- Discounters Aldi and Lidl to make significant market share gains in
- Food inflation drives the necessity for grocers to demonstrate value for money and increase store presence
- KEY TRENDS
- Market drivers
- Market inhibitors
- Key Trends: Inflation
- Key Trends: Customer Facing Technology
- Key Trends: Loyalty Schemes
- Key Trends: Sustainability
- Strategies for success
- MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS
- UK Food & Grocery Market, five year growth 2017 -
- UK Food & Grocery Market Size, 2017-
- UK Food & Grocery Market Growth Drivers, 2020-
- CATEGORY PERFORMANCE AND FORECASTS
- Key category trends
- Food & grocery categories
- Market by category %, 2017-
- Market by sub-category %, 2022-
- CHANNEL PERFORMANCE AND FORECASTS
- Online Market, 2017-
- Channel growth, 2017-
- Market by channel, 2023 and
- Channel value and forecast, 2023 and
- REVENUE AND MARKET SHARES OF TOP 10 PLAYERS
- Top 10 retailers,
- Market shares of the top 10 retailers
- Top 20 most visited and purchased from retailers for food & grocery,
- Food & grocery competitor overlap,
- COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE: PROFILES OF LEADING PLAYERS
- Tesco
- Sainsbury's
- ASDA
- Aldi
- Morrisons
- Retailers to watch: Discount Dragon
- Retailelr to watch: Amazon
- CONSUMERS
- Key consumer trends
- Food & Grocery penetration and profile
- Food & Grocery category penetration
- Food & Grocery channel usage
- Fulfilment methods
- Food & Grocery purchase locations
- Food & Grocery purchase frequency
- Food & Grocery consumer drivers
- Rapid Delivery penetration and profile
- Where consumers switch from for food & grocery shopping
- Use of supermarket loyalty schemes
- Aspects of loyalty schemes valued most by consumers
- Opinions on supermarket loyalty schemes
- How shopping habits have changed for food & groceries
- METHODOLOGY, DEFINITIONS AND CONTACTS
- UK Food & Grocery Market by Sub-Category, 2022 &
- UK Food & Grocery Channel Value & Forecast, 2022 and
- Top 10 UK Food & Grocery Retailers,
- UK Food & Grocery Competitor Overlap,
- UK Food & Grocery Category Penetration by Demographic,
- UK Food & Grocery Channel Usage by Demographic,
- UK Food & Grocery Fulfilment Methods,
- UK Food & Grocery Purchase Locations,
- UK Food & Grocery Consumer Drivers,
- Food & non alcoholic beverages annual CPIH inflation rates in the UK,
- Aldi and Lidl share of the UK food & grocery market,
- supermarket loyalty scheme, by
- age, 2023"
- shoppers value the most,
- UK Food & Grocery Market GBP m, 2017, 2022, 2027 & CAGR %
- UK Food & Grocery Market Value GBP bn, 2017-
- UK Food & Grocery Market Annual Growth %, 2017-
- UK Food & Grocery Market Sources of Growth, 2020-
- UK Food & Grocery Categories by Value GBP m, 2022 &
- UK Food & Grocery Categories by Value Growth %, CAGR 2022-
- UK Food & Grocery Market by Category %, 2017-
- UK Food & Grocery Online Market Size GBPm and Online Penetration %, 2017-
- UK Food & Grocery Channel Growth, 2017-
- UK Food & Grocery Market by Channel, 2022 &
- Market Shares of Top 10 UK Food & Grocery Retailers, 2021, 2022 and 2023e
- Top 20 Most Visited Retailers for Food & Grocery %,
- Top 20 Most Purchased from Retailers for Food & Grocery %,
- Tesco's UK Food & Grocery sales GBP m, 2017-2022, and annual growth %
- Tesco's UK Food & Grocery market share % 2017-2023e
- Tesco's UK Food & Grocery Penetration %,
- Sainsbury's UK Food & Grocery sales GBP m, 2017-2022, and annual growth %
- Sainsbury's UK Food & Grocery market share % 2017-2023e
- Sainsbury's UK Food & Grocery Penetration %,
- ASDA's UK Food & Grocery sales GBP m, 2017-2022, and annual growth %
- ASDA's UK Food & Grocery market share % 2017-2023e
- ASDA's UK Food & Grocery Penetration %,
- Aldi's UK Food & Grocery sales GBP m, 2017-2022, and annual growth %
- Aldi's UK Food & Grocery market share % 2017-2023e
- Aldi's UK Food & Grocery Penetration %,
- Morrisons' UK Food & Grocery sales GBP m, 2017-2022, and annual growth %
- Morrisons' UK Food & Grocery market share % 2017-2023e
- Morrisons' UK Food & Grocery Penetration %,
- UK Food & Grocery Penetration %,
- UK Food & Grocery Profile %,
- UK Food & Grocery Penetration %,
- UK Food & Grocery Channel Usage %,
- UK Food & Grocery Fulfilment Methods %,
- UK Food & Grocery Purchase Locations %,
- UK Food & Grocery Purchase Frequency,
- UK Food & Grocery Consumer Drivers %,
- UK Food & Grocery Rapid Delivery Penetration %,
- UK Food & Grocery Rapid Delivery Profile %,
- Where consumers switched from for food & grocery shopping,
- Wether consumer used a supermarket's loyalty scheme when shopping for food & groceries in the last 12 months,
- Consumers who have used a supermarket loyalty scheme, by age,
- Aspects of loyalty schemes that consumers valued the most,
- Consumer statements on supermarket loyalty schemes,
- How consumer's shopping habits have changed for food & groceries, 2023
Companies Mentioned (Partial List)
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:
- Aldi
- Amazon
- ASDA
- B&M
- Co-op
- Costco
- Deliveroo
- Discount Dragon
- Farmfoods
- Getir
- Heron Foods
- Home Bargains
- Iceland
- Lidl
- Marks & Spencer
- Morrisons
- Nisa
- Ocado
- One Stop
- Poundland
- Premier
- Sainsbury's
- Spar
- Tesco
- Uber Eats
- Waitrose & Partners
- Zapp
