Next-generation Optical Transceivers to Grow to $15.9 Billion in 2028
Embedding new approaches - such as coherent optics, co-packaged optics, and more efficient designs-next generation transceivers will be better suited to the needs of the network as demand increases and applications become more latency sensitive. According to the analyst’s new report next-generation transceivers will generate $15.9 Billion in 2028 compared to $850 Million in 2023 as 800G speeds and above become mainstream.
According to Lawrence Gasman, author of this new study, “Next Generation Transceivers Markets: 2022-2028” and President, “We are entering exciting new times. The next generation of transceivers is no longer just a transmitter plus receiver with some simple electronics thrown in. Transceivers will become smart modules appropriately designed to simplify network architecture and enable more flexible network configurations.”
About the Report:
This report analyzes the size and timing of opportunities in the next-generation transceiver space until 2028, examining the marketplace value created first by coherent technology and ultimately by co-packaging. In addition to a granular forecast from 2023 to 2028 we have included a quantitative historical sizing of the next-generation transceiver market in 2022. In addition, the report provides profiles of the following transceiver market influencers and their activities related to next-generation transceivers: Accelink, Ciena, Cisco, Coherent, Eoptolink, Fujitsu, Huawei, Infinera, Intel, Innoloight, Juniper, Lessengers, Limktel, Lumentum, Marvell, Molex, Source Photonics, and Sumitomo.
The report contains roadmaps showing how the next-generation transceivers are growing beyond established MSAs to a plethora of MSAs supporting various levels of pluggability, integration and optimization for the latest data rates and traffic types. The report covers all parts of the network - data center, access, and metro.
In addition to analyzing the technical and market changes that the analyst expects to see in transceivers, this report also covers changes in the transceiver supply chain. This part of the report includes a discussion of the future of third-party transceivers and the all-important question of how transceiver manufacturing will shift out of China.
This report is targeted towards OEMs, third-party transceiver suppliers, network managers and, of course, transceiver manufacturers themselves.
Report Highlights:
- Data rate requirements for optical transceivers will grow rapidly. Internet and 5G/6G users will increase and latency-sensitive traffic from AI, machine learning (ML), Internet-of-things (IoT) and virtual reality traffic will begin to proliferate. Transceiver makers are responding to bandwidth challenges by introducing coherent transceivers throughout the network, even the access segment (Coherent PONs). By 2028, the report says that coherent transceivers will rack up almost $4 Billion in revenue. Nonetheless, transceivers will eventually switch to something more radical such as co-package optics as well as engineer a new range of transceivers for edge data centers
- PON transceiver markets will begin to evolve. New transceivers will be required to support “Combo” PONs and “Coherent PONs,” which are PON networks that can carry traffic from many kinds of PON infrastructure. Next-generation PON transceivers will clock up $300 million in revenues by 2028
- Transceiver supply chains will simplify considerably in the next few years. It is unlikely that the two-tier pricing structure for transceivers will survive as links in the supply chain consolidate. Expect to role of distributors decline, while OEMs play a growing role in transceiver manufacturing. This latter trend will help cope with the increasing unreliability of China as a transceiver source
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Executive Summary
This report identifies the opportunities for next generation transceivers in data communications and telecommunications. Although the longer-term future of transceivers may be found in co-packaged optics, much of the next-generation transceiver space - consisting of the latest transceivers that are now appearing for the data center, access and metro space - are very much in the pluggable tradition.
Increasingly a transceiver is no longer just a transmitter plus receiver with some simple electronics thrown in. Instead, next-generation transceivers will be smart modules appropriately designed to simplify network architecture and enable more flexible network configurations. These innovations are being designed with an expected surge of high-data rate, latency-sensitive traffic in mind. Pluggability plays an important role in this design work, as well as coherent optics and high data rates. The source of such traffic will be AI, machine learning (ML), and virtual reality traffic. Such traffic is only just beginning to appear on the network, but the network is being re-architected today with the traffic of tomorrow clearly in mind and next-generation transceivers.
The report analyzes the technical changes that the analyst expects in transceivers, as well as expected changes in the transceiver supply chain. The report begins with a survey of the key emerging technical trends, discussing especially the coming market for 800G pluggables and the spread of coherent communications across the entire network. The report also examines some of the interesting new MSAs that will impact transceiver design going forward and the role that silicon photonics will play. The report is targeted toward OEMs, third-party transceiver suppliers, network managers and, of course, transceiver manufacturers themselves.
Companies Mentioned
- Accelink
- Arista
- Ciena
- Cisco Acacia
- Coherent
- Eoptolink
- Fujitsu
- Hisense Broadband
- Huawei
- Infinera
- Intel
- Innolight
- Juniper
- Lumentum
- Marvell
- Molex
- Source Photonics
- Sumitomo Electric
- TiBit MicroPlugs
