Two Quarters of War-like Conditions and Geopolitical Chaos will Shrink the Demand for Automotive Lubricants by 2.1% in 2023
This research service discusses the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on select European automotive replacement lubricants aftermarket for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (class 1 to 3) in demand (million units) and volume (million US Quart). The regions covered are the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The base year is 2022, and the forecast period is 2023.
This study analyzes key oil and natural gas companies in Europe, followed by major Russian oil companies operating in the region. It highlights the dependency of European countries on Russian oil companies, the exit strategy of major European oil and lubricant manufacturers, and their alternative sourcing strategy.
The study discusses macroeconomic trends influenced by war, such as GDP, inflation, recession, and impact on major currencies. It identifies market drivers and restraints that can influence lubricant demand in 2023. The total demand base is identified, and the 3 lubricants covered are engine oil (motor oil or passenger car motor oil [PCMO]), gear oil, and transmission fluid. For each lubricant, the publisher forecasts 3 growth scenarios for the year 2023:
- Scenario 1 is based on historical trends. It depicts a market without the War.
- Scenario 2 is based on higher growth, as the market reacts positively to a possibility where demand grows faster than historical trends. The War does not affect domestic markets severely.
- Scenario 3 is based on a lower growth rate, as the market reacts negatively to a possibility where demand shrinks quicker than historical trends. The War adversely affects domestic European markets.
The study identifies growth opportunities in the automotive lubricant segment in areas of alternative distribution partners, sourcing avenues, and production.
