Natural Refrigerants Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, 2021-2031

The Global Natural Refrigerants Market is projected to expand from USD 2.44 Billion in 2025 to USD 3.17 Billion by 2031, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.46%. Natural refrigerants, which include naturally occurring substances like ammonia, carbon dioxide, and hydrocarbons, are increasingly utilized in heating and cooling systems due to their negligible global warming potential and zero ozone depletion potential. The market is primarily propelled by rigorous international regulatory mandates requiring the phase-down of synthetic fluorinated gases, which obligates industries to adopt compliant alternatives. Furthermore, the exceptional thermodynamic characteristics of these natural substances contribute to improved energy efficiency, encouraging commercial and industrial sectors to transition as a means of reducing long-term energy costs and achieving decarbonization goals.

One notable barrier hindering faster market growth is the acute scarcity of technicians who are trained to manage the specialized high-pressure requirements and safety protocols inherent to these systems. This gap in the workforce can prolong installation schedules and complicate maintenance for early adopters. Despite these hurdles, the industry is experiencing significant progress; data from ATMOsphere indicates that in 2024, the number of food retail locations in North America utilizing transcritical CO2 systems rose to 4,100, marking a 40% increase over the prior year.

Market Drivers

The enforcement of strict international regulations aimed at phasing out high-GWP hydrofluorocarbons acts as the primary accelerator for market adoption. Legislative measures, including the Kigali Amendment and the EU F-Gas Regulation, are systematically curtailing the supply of synthetic refrigerants, compelling end-users to upgrade or replace legacy infrastructure with compliant natural solutions. This regulatory environment has triggered a substantial shift driven by compliance needs, especially in regions with ambitious sustainability goals where bans on synthetics are approaching. As per the 'Natural Refrigerants: State of the Industry 2024' report by ATMOsphere in February 2025, this legislative drive has led to the installation of transcritical CO2 systems in 90,700 food retail stores across Europe, reaching a market penetration rate of 30%.

Simultaneously, the growing global demand for energy-efficient cooling solutions to lower operational expenditures provides a strong incentive for transition, independent of immediate regulatory fines. Natural refrigerants such as ammonia and carbon dioxide offer superior thermodynamic efficiency, resulting in reduced electricity usage and lower operating costs for industrial and commercial facilities. The return on investment for these sustainable upgrades is increasingly appealing to corporate leadership focused on optimizing lifecycle expenses. According to the July 2025 'Cooling the Climate Crisis' report by the Environmental Investigation Agency, major retailers adopting these systems have noted payback periods ranging from 4 to 10 years. Additionally, ATMOsphere reported in 2025 that 4,900 industrial sites in Europe are now using transcritical CO2 systems, highlighting the sector's move toward cost-efficient thermal management.

Market Challenges

A significant obstacle to the widespread uptake of natural refrigerants is the severe shortage of specialized technicians equipped to handle the unique high-pressure demands and safety protocols of these systems. Unlike traditional synthetic fluids, natural options like ammonia and carbon dioxide often function under extreme pressures or exhibit flammability, necessitating strict safety measures and precise management. When the available workforce lacks the specific competencies to navigate these technical intricacies, installation projects are subject to substantial delays and increased operational risks. As a result, commercial and industrial end-users face uncertainty regarding system reliability, frequently postponing investments in these green technologies due to concerns over extended downtime and insufficient maintenance support.

Recent industry statistics underscore the gap between regulatory goals and workforce preparedness. In 2024, the European association of refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pump (AREA) revealed that only 21% of personnel certified for F-gas were trained in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) handling, while merely 12% had training for Ammonia. This limited availability of specialized skills directly constrains the market's ability to expand, as the supply of qualified labor struggles to match the intensifying regulatory pressure to move away from fluorinated gases.

Market Trends

The increased use of hydrocarbons in self-contained commercial display units is revolutionizing retail cooling by delivering enhanced operational flexibility and simplifying infrastructure requirements. In contrast to centralized systems that depend on extensive piping, these plug-in units employ Propane (R290) within small, hermetically sealed circuits, facilitating modular store designs and smoother renovation processes. This transition is further hastened by the superior thermodynamic efficiency of hydrocarbons, which permits considerable energy conservation in smaller applications without the regulatory constraints linked to synthetic fluids. The magnitude of this shift is highlighted by ATMOsphere’s February 2025 'Natural Refrigerants: State of the Industry 2024' report, which notes that the European market has installed roughly 17 million self-contained hydrocarbon cabinets, cementing the technology as a standard for modern food retail.

Concurrently, the integration of low-charge ammonia technology in light industrial sectors is fundamentally reshaping safety dynamics for large-scale thermal management. By significantly lowering the refrigerant inventory needed for effective cooling, these systems alleviate the toxic release risks typically associated with ammonia, rendering them suitable for facilities in mixed-use or densely populated areas. This technological progression favors factory-assembled packaged units, which offer superior quality control and more rapid onsite commissioning compared to custom-built plants. Market data reflects strong adoption of this safer architecture; according to the February 2025 ATMOsphere report, the number of industrial sites in North America using low-charge ammonia systems has risen to 1,230, with packaged unit installations experiencing a 38% year-over-year growth.

Key Players Profiled in the Natural Refrigerants Market

• Linde
• Danfoss
• Bitzer
• Emerson
• Panasonic
• GEA Group
• Mayekawa
• Daikin
• Carrier
• Gree

Report Scope

In this report, the Global Natural Refrigerants Market has been segmented into the following categories:

Natural Refrigerants Market, by Gas:

• Carbon Dioxide
• Ammonia
• Hydrocarbons
• Others

Natural Refrigerants Market, by Application:

• Refrigerators
• Air Conditioning Systems
• Others

Natural Refrigerants Market, by Region:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• South America
• Middle East & Africa

Competitive Landscape

Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Natural Refrigerants Market.

Available Customization

The analyst offers customization according to your specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report:

• Detailed analysis and profiling of additional market players (up to five).

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