Indonesia eCommerce Logistics Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

During the time frame of the forecast, the Indonesia eCommerce logistics market is expected to register a CAGR of more than 5%.

Key Highlights

• Indonesia, with its huge population, has great market potential. During the COVID-19 pandemic, e-commerce transactions increased by 23% to a projected USD 32 billion. Total online market sales in Indonesia reached USD 44 billion in 2020, with the e-commerce sector accounting for 72% of the total digital economy value. This increased the demand for eCommerce logistics services, indicating that the market performed very well during COVID-19.
• With a population of 273.5 million people, Indonesia is one of the most promising Southeast Asian e-commerce markets in the world, mainly due to the younger generation's acceptance of online shopping as a more convenient and affordable way to shop. Large and small cross-border e-commerce platforms in the country are also making people more interested in shopping online by offering cashback payments. This is making e-commerce even more popular.Indonesia has the biggest digital economy in the region, making up about 40% of the whole market.It is home to ‘unicorns’ such as Gojek (ride-hailing), Tokopedia (e-commerce), Bukalapak (e-commerce), and OVO (digital payment), who are resolutely spearheading the country’s digitalization. They have attracted investors from all over the world, particularly large tech companies wanting to gain traction in the region. According to Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Information Technology, about 21 million Indonesian SMBs, or 32% of the total, market their products on online marketplaces. By 2024, the government hopes to get at least 30 million SMBs online. All these factors are contributing to the growth of the market.
• However, in comparison to neighboring countries, internet penetration in Indonesia remains low. While a commercial 5G network has been launched in a few urban areas, many islands and rural areas have limited to no internet access at all. Improving logistics infrastructure continues to be a challenge in a country with approximately 17,000 islands and a vast sea area. The quality of Indonesia’s workforce is fundamentally insufficient to meet the demands of its digital industry. Approximately 87% of the workforce has only completed primary and secondary school education. Compared to other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, Indonesia’s non-cash payments are still relatively underdeveloped. Another barrier to the development of e-commerce in the country is regulatory uncertainty. While the government has stated its intention to reform, changing certain inward-looking policies will be difficult. Therefore, the regulatory regime is expected to remain unpredictable. These are the challenges that Indonesia needs to overcome to see rapid market growth.

Even though more and more Indonesians are shopping online, most of the country's e-commerce customers are still in the Greater Jakarta area. It is thought that 60-70% of all online shopping in the country takes place in this area. This concentration of e-commerce in Indonesia's big cities has opened up a lot of opportunities outside Greater Jakarta. There are at least 170 million consumers in the second- and third-tier cities who have not been served optimally due to logistical barriers. In order to serve the second- and third-tier cities, several established players in the logistics industry, start-ups, and e-commerce managers are building conjoined warehouse and delivery networks.

Indonesia eCommerce Logistics Market Trends

Live Commerce Contributing in Market Expansion

Live commerce is the act of selling products online through live video while shoppers interact with the brand in real time. Live commerce has transformed into a lucrative industry in the Indonesian and overall Southeast Asian digital ecosystems, especially after seeing how China managed to scale up the system into one of its strongest sales campaigns. Several industries have adopted live shopping to market their products. According to a survey on live shopping in Indonesia conducted in October 2022, 69% of the respondents in Indonesia have purchased products using Livestream commerce. 57% of Indonesian respondents used an e-commerce platform to watch live shopping. E-commerce platforms in Indonesia adopt live shopping to improve customer engagement and push sales. Shopee was the leading e-commerce platform for live shopping. 69% of Indonesian respondents used TikTok to watch live shopping. The attractive discount was the main reason why Indonesians shopped from live shopping promotions, as stated by 66% of respondents. Fashion products were the most popular products Indonesians bought from live shopping promotions. 50% of Indonesian respondents stated that they were interested in buying items from a live shopping promotion.

While bigger brands tend to use live shopping to push new products or sales, the benefits of the approach manifest differently for small-scale sellers. For these merchants, videos are a front-end funnel to entice new potential buyers and serve as an invitation for customers to get to know their brands and products more. For new merchants, the average Livestream can increase product viewership and shop visits by 40% and 20%, respectively, while driving 29% of their orders for the day. Overall, live streaming can also lead to an increase of up to 625x more product detail page views, a 262x increase in shop visits, and up to 100% of the shop’s daily orders. In some cases, small brands have been able to attract more than 80,000 viewers from a piece of content generated as part of their live shopping efforts. For Indonesia’s nearly 65 million small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs)-nearly 98% of which are micro-enterprises with less than IDR 300 million (USD 19,500) in annual sales-the trend could open doors to new customers amid a government push towards digitalization. Considering this, live commerce will see tremendous growth in Indonesia in the coming years. With this growth of live commerce, the Indonesian eCommerce logistics market will see continued expansion.

Government Regulations can Negatively Impact the Market

The growth of e-commerce in Indonesia has made a big difference in the economy of the whole country.However, data also shows that foreign products dominate the e-commerce market in Indonesia, which is dangerous for the domestic economy. The Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) conducted a survey related to online commerce (e-commerce) in Indonesia, which is flooded by 90% of foreign products. This has an impact; imports of goods through e-commerce have increased sharply. The implication is that the competitiveness of domestic products is weakening. The trend of importing goods through e-commerce needs special attention from the government. Data from Customs said that throughout 2018, the average amount of goods imported through e-commerce increased by 10.5% per month, while in terms of transaction value, it jumped 22% from the previous year. There are several reasons why imported goods sell well in the Indonesian e-commerce market. First, consumers shop for goods from abroad because the product is rare in the market. Secondly, the price of goods is rated relatively low by buyers. In fact, some e-commerce platforms in Indonesia provide facilities for foreign sellers to open online stores in the country. According to some industry experts, if this is not followed up immediately, it will further threaten the business continuity of online producers and sellers in Indonesia.

The Indonesian government is taking steps in this direction. Indonesia plans to restrict online retailers, especially e-commerce, from entering the country, according to Indonesia's Minister of Cooperatives and SMEs. The ministry has suggested changes to Trade Minister Regulation No. 50/2020 on business permits, marketing, and overseeing trade across electronic systems, or PMSE. The minister underlined that this plan is needed to better maintain the products that are marketed domestically. There are currently many foreign e-commerce players that can directly conduct sales in the Southeast Asian nation, but the products fail to meet the Indonesian National Standard (SNI) or marketing authorization from the Food and Drug Monitoring Agency (BPOM). According to the minister, any international eCommerce should basically be allowed to enter the Indonesian market but must be required to establish a company in Indonesia. The ministry hopes that as the restriction policy is implemented in the future, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises will not be left out or unable to compete with imported products sold on foreign e-commerce platforms, which are mostly cheaper compared to domestic goods. The government hopes that as the restriction policy is implemented in the future, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises will not be left out or unable to compete with imported products sold on foreign e-commerce platforms. However, this could lead to reduced eCommerce demand and negatively impact the market.

Indonesia eCommerce Logistics Industry Overview

The Indonesian e-commerce logistics market is fragmented by nature. The demand for eCommerce logistics services is growing rapidly across the country, and companies are becoming more competitive to capture this opportunity. Major international players are making strategic investments to establish a regional logistics network, such as opening new distribution centers and smart warehouses. JNE Express, SiCepat Ekspres Indonesia, Ninja Xpress, J&T Express, and POS Indonesia are some of the major players in the market. To maintain cost competitiveness, companies that operate online prefer to work with third-party courier providers instead of hiring in-house delivery staff. Global companies are actively investing in the region to benefit from the growth opportunities. DHL and UPS are the two major global players active in the market.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

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