The Cancer Populations USA report series provides detailed descriptive epidemiology estimates, forecast out to 20 years, and insights, to support clinical trial design and enrolment, market opportunity assessment and post-marketing authorization activities.
Cancer Populations USA is unique in routinely stratifying key cancer populations by race and ethnicity, which can be used to assess the representativeness of clinical trial populations, as well as identify areas of health inequities between different race-ethnicity population groups.
All estimates in this report are based on nationally representative datasets, such as population-based cancer registries, large epidemiological studies and published national population forecasts. Modelled estimates are based on the best practice industry methods to estimate recurrence events and, where required, make imputations and extrapolations.
We provide estimates for the year 2022 and forecast estimates to 2032 and 2042 in the main body of this report. Annualized forecast estimates are provided in supplementary tables at the end of the report, and also in the accompanying data dashboard, if purchased.
Stratification of incident cases by stage is based on the scheme specified by the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition (i.e. stage groups I, II, III, IV, , ). Due to small numbers, some stage groups have been aggregated in this report. Wherever possible, this has been into meaningful groupings based on recommended clinical practice (NCCN, 2023). Note that because the estimates herein are derived independently, they may not equal the sum across the component tumors that we report separately.
In this report on squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCC-HN), we provide forecast estimates of incident cases by stage, age and gender, race-ethnicity, anatomical subsite, and PD-L1 status. Additionally, we forecast those cases each year that become eligible for 1st line treatment for advanced disease, which we further stratify by oncogene driver mutations and amplifications.
Our forecast model uses a proprietary algorithm taking account of historical trends, long-term evolution - at the age- and gender-specific level within each race-ethnicity group - in the size and composition of the national population at risk, and inter-generational trends in exposures to both known and unknown risk factors. In addition to national estimates, we also estimate the state-specific size of key populations for the year 2022 for almost all US states, and Puerto Rico, with corresponding heat maps and tabulated results.
All of the key populations included in the report are also reported for each year of the forecast period, along with interactive tables, patient journey diagrams and heat maps, in the accompanying data dashboard.
Purchase of the report and dashboard comes with 12 months client support, with guaranteed response to client queries within 1 working day. The Cancer Populations USA report series is available for a wide range of tumors, both solid tumors and hematological malignancies. Similar reports can be provided for other indications (including non-oncology indications), or for other country(s).
Table of Contents
1: Overview
- List of figures and tables
- Table of abbreviations
- Case definition
2. Summary of results
3. Newly diagnosed incident cases
4. Advanced 1st line drug-treatable cases
5. Tumor genetics and biomarker expression
6. State-level epidemiology
7. 10 and 20 year epidemiological forecasts
8. Detailed methods
9. National population projections
10. Bibliography
11. Supplementary data tables
12. Additional support
13. Further information
Executive Summary
Nationally, the publisher estimates 41,228 newly diagnosed incident cases of Squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCC-HN) in 2022, of which 85% were initially diagnosed at stages of disease amenable to definitive treatment.
We estimate 21,300 advanced 1st line drug-treatable cases nationally in 2022. The majority of these were initially diagnosed with locoregional non-metastatic disease, but subsequently recurred following definitive treatment.
Nationally, the number of incident cases over our 20-year forecast period will increase by 41%.
The Hispanic white population will experience the greatest increase in cases over the forecast period. This is explained in large part by trends in incidence, but also by underlying demographic trends (see the supplementary discussion on our demographic forecast towards the end of this report for details).
The age-adjusted risk of SCC-HN is highest among white non-Hispanics. The risk of SCC-HN is multiple times lower among females than in males.
Regarding state-level estimates, we estimate that the age-standardized risk of SCC-HN is highest in Kentucky at 13.1 per 100,000 person years per year in 2022.
Although California does not have the highest age-standardized risk of SCC-HN, it is the state with the most newly diagnosed cases in 2022 at 3,674.
When considering trends in the risk of SCC-HN within each race-ethnicity group, according to our forecast model, the crude incidence rate across the national population will increase, from an estimated 12.3 per 100,000 per year in 2022 to 15.3 per 100,000 per year in 2042.
The author estimates 21,300 advanced 1st line drug-treatable cases nationally in 2022, 25,133 in 2032 and 29,065 in 2042.
