Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications
Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice - from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today.
The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk.
- Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis
- Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis
- Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis
- Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management
- Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms
- Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual
Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
Table of Contents
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xvii
About the Companion Site xix
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Risk in Our Modern Society 1
1.2 Important Trends 2
1.3 Major Accidents 4
1.4 History of Risk Assessment 4
1.5 Applications of Risk Assessment 9
1.6 Objectives, Scope, and Delimitation 11
1.7 Problems 12
References 13
2 The Words of Risk Analysis 15
2.1 Introduction 15
2.2 Risk 16
2.3 What Can Go Wrong? 20
2.4 What is the Likelihood? 38
2.5 What are the Consequences? 44
2.6 Additional Terms 49
2.7 Problems 54
References 56
3 Main Elements of Risk Assessment 59
3.1 Introduction 59
3.2 Risk Assessment Process 60
3.3 Risk Assessment Report 76
3.4 Risk Assessment in Safety Legislation 81
3.5 Validity and Quality Aspects of a Risk Assessment 82
3.6 Problems 83
References 84
4 Study Object and Limitations 87
4.1 Introduction 87
4.2 Study Object 87
4.3 Operating Context 91
4.4 System Modeling and Analysis 92
4.5 Complexity 95
4.6 Problems 97
References 98
5 Risk Acceptance 99
5.1 Introduction 99
5.2 Risk Acceptance Criteria 99
5.3 Approaches to Establishing Risk Acceptance Criteria 106
5.4 Risk Acceptance Criteria for Other Assets than Humans 114
5.5 Closure 115
5.6 Problems 115
References 117
6 Measuring Risk 121
6.1 Introduction 121
6.2 Risk Metrics 121
6.3 Measuring Risk to People 123
6.4 Risk Matrices 148
6.5 Reduction in Life Expectancy 154
6.6 Choice and Use of Risk Metrics 156
6.7 Risk Metrics for Other Assets 158
6.8 Problems 159
References 163
7 Risk Management 167
7.1 Introduction 167
7.2 Scope, Context, and Criteria 170
7.3 Risk Assessment 170
7.4 Risk Treatment 171
7.5 Communication and Consultation 172
7.6 Monitoring and Review 173
7.7 Recording and Reporting 174
7.8 Stakeholders 175
7.9 Risk and Decision-Making 176
7.10 Safety Legislation 179
7.11 Problems 180
References 180
8 Accident Models 183
8.1 Introduction 183
8.2 Accident Classification 183
8.3 Accident Investigation 188
8.4 Accident Causation 188
8.5 Accident Models 190
8.6 Energy and Barrier Models 193
8.7 Sequential Accident Models 195
8.8 Epidemiological Accident Models 201
8.9 Event Causation and Sequencing Models 208
8.10 Systemic Accident Models 213
8.11 Combining Accident Models 228
8.12 Problems 229
References 230
9 Data for Risk Analysis 235
9.1 Types of Data 235
9.2 Quality and Applicability of Data 238
9.3 Data Sources 239
9.4 Expert Judgment 250
9.5 Data Dossier 254
9.6 Problems 254
References 257
10 Hazard Identification 259
10.1 Introduction 259
10.2 Checklist Methods 263
10.3 Preliminary Hazard Analysis 266
10.4 Job Safety Analysis 278
10.5 FMECA 287
10.6 HAZOP 295
10.7 STPA 306
10.8 SWIFT 316
10.9 Comparing Semiquantitative Methods 322
10.10 Master Logic Diagram 322
10.11 Change Analysis 324
10.12 Hazard Log 327
10.13 Problems 331
References 335
11 Causal and Frequency Analysis 339
11.1 Introduction 339
11.2 Cause and Effect Diagram Analysis 341
11.3 Fault Tree Analysis 344
11.4 Bayesian Networks 370
11.5 Markov Methods 384
11.6 Problems 396
References 400
12 Development of Accident Scenarios 401
12.1 Introduction 401
12.2 Event Tree Analysis 402
12.3 Event Sequence Diagrams 426
12.4 Cause-Consequence Analysis 426
12.5 Hybrid Causal Logic 428
12.6 Escalation Problems 429
12.7 Consequence Models 429
12.8 Problems 431
References 435
13 Dependent Failures and Events 437
13.1 Introduction 437
13.2 Dependent Failures and Events 437
13.3 Dependency in Accident Scenarios 439
13.4 Cascading Failures 441
13.5 Common-Cause Failures 442
13.6 𝛽-Factor Model 452
13.7 Binomial Failure Rate Model 456
13.8 Multiple Greek Letter Model 457
13.9 𝛼-Factor Model 459
13.10 Multiple 𝛽-Factor Model 461
13.11 Problems 461
References 462
14 Barriers and Barrier Analysis 465
14.1 Introduction 465
14.2 Barriers and Barrier Classification 466
14.3 Barrier Management 474
14.4 Barrier Properties 476
14.5 Safety-Instrumented Systems 477
14.6 Hazard-Barrier Matrices 487
14.7 Safety Barrier Diagrams 488
14.8 Bow-Tie Diagrams 490
14.9 Energy Flow/Barrier Analysis 490
14.10 Layer of Protection Analysis 493
14.11 Barrier and Operational Risk Analysis 502
14.12 Systematic Identification and Evaluation of Risk Reduction Measures 512
14.13 Problems 518
References 520
15 Human Reliability Analysis 525
15.1 Introduction 525
15.2 Task Analysis 536
15.3 Human Error Identification 543
15.4 HRA Methods 552
15.5 Problems 573
References 574
16 Risk Analysis and Management for Operation 579
16.1 Introduction 579
16.2 Decisions About Risk 581
16.3 Aspects of Risk to Consider 583
16.4 Risk Indicators 585
16.5 Risk Modeling 594
16.6 Operational Risk Analysis - Updating the QRA 596
16.7 MIRMAP 598
16.8 Problems 601
References 602
17 Security Assessment 605
17.1 Introduction 605
17.2 Main Elements of Security Assessment 608
17.3 Industrial Control and Safety Systems 615
17.4 Security Assessment 617
17.5 Security Assessment Methods 625
17.6 Application Areas 626
17.7 Problems 627
References 628
18 Life Cycle Use of Risk Analysis 631
18.1 Introduction 631
18.2 Phases in the Life Cycle 631
18.3 Comments Applicable to all Phases 634
18.4 Feasibility and Concept Selection 635
18.5 Preliminary Design 637
18.6 Detailed Design and Construction 639
18.7 Operation and Maintenance 641
18.8 Major Modifications 641
18.9 Decommissioning and Removal 643
18.10 Problems 643
References 643
19 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 645
19.1 Introduction 645
19.2 Uncertainty 647
19.3 Categories of Uncertainty 648
19.4 Contributors to Uncertainty 651
19.5 Uncertainty Propagation 656
19.6 Sensitivity Analysis 661
19.7 Problems 663
References 664
20 Development and Applications of Risk Assessment 667
20.1 Introduction 667
20.2 Defense and Defense Industry 668
20.3 Nuclear Power Industry 670
20.4 Process Industry 674
20.5 Offshore Oil and Gas Industry 678
20.6 Space Industry 681
20.7 Aviation 683
20.8 Railway Transport 685
20.9 Marine Transport 686
20.10 Machinery Systems 689
20.11 Food Safety 690
20.12 Other Application Areas 692
20.13 Closure 695
References 697
Appendix A Elements of Probability Theory 701
A.1 Introduction 701
A.2 Outcomes and Events 701
A.3 Probability 706
A.4 Random Variables 710
A.5 Some Specific Distributions 718
A.6 Point and Interval Estimation 728
A.7 Bayesian Approach 732
A.8 Probability of Frequency Approach 733
References 739
Appendix B Acronyms 741
Author Index 747
Subject Index 753
