Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts.
El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change.
Volume highlights include:
- Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences
- Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics
- Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations
- Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing
- ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle
- Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting
- Future projections of ENSO and its impacts
- Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions
The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals.
Table of Contents
List of Contributors vii
Acknowledgments xiii
Preface xv
Section I: Introduction
1. Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate 3
Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, and Wenju Cai
2. ENSO in the Global Climate System 21
Kevin E. Trenberth
Section II: Observations
3. ENSO Observations 41
Michael J. McPhaden, Tong Lee, Severine Fournier, and Magdalena A. Balmaseda
4. ENSO Diversity 65
Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Jong-Seong Kug, Ken Takahashi, and Michael J. McPhaden
5. Past ENSO Variability: Reconstructions, Models, and Implications 87
Julien Emile-Geay, Kim M. Cobb, Julia E. Cole, Mary Elliot, and Feng Zhu
Section III: Theories and Dynamics
6. Simple ENSO Models 121
Fei-Fei Jin, Han-Ching Chen, Sen Zhao, Michiya Hayashi, Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Ruihuang Xie, and Licheng Geng
7. ENSO Irregularity and Asymmetry 153
Soon-Il An, Eli Tziperman, Yuko M. Okumura, and Tim Li
8. ENSO Low‐frequency Modulation and Mean State Interactions 173
Alexey V. Fedorov, Shineng Hu, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Aaron F. Z. Levine, and Clara Deser
Section IV: Modeling and Prediction
9. ENSO Modelling: History, Progress and Challenges 201
Eric Guilyardi, Antonietta Capotondi, Matthieu Lengaigne, Sulian Thual, and Andrew T. Wittenberg
10. ENSO Prediction 227
Michelle L. L’Heureux, Aaron F. Z. Levine, Matthew Newman, Catherine Ganter, Jing-Jia Luo, Michael K. Tippett, and Timothy N. Stockdale
Section V: Remote and External Forcing
11. ENSO Remote Forcing: Influence of Climate Variability Outside the Tropical Pacific 249
Jong-Seong Kug, Jerome Vialard, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jin-Yi Yu, and Matthieu Lengaigne
12. The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO 267
Shayne McGregor, Myriam Khodri, Nicola Maher, Masamichi Ohba, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Samantha Stevenson
13. ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing 289
Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Lixin Wu, Mat Collins, Matthieu Lengaigne, Scott Power, and Axel Timmermann
Section VI: Teleconnections and Impacts
14. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections 311
Andréa S. Taschetto, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Malte F. Stuecker, Dietmar Dommenget, Karumuri Ashok, Regina R. Rodrigues, and Sang-Wook Yeh
15. ENSO Oceanic Teleconnections 337
Janet Sprintall, Sophie Cravatte, Boris Dewitte, Yan Du, and Alexander Sen Gupta
16. Impact of El Nino on Weather and Climate Extremes 361
Lisa Goddard and Alexander Gershunov
17. ENSO and Tropical Cyclones 377
I-I Lin, Suzana J. Camargo, Christina M. Patricola, Julien Boucharel, Savin Chand, Phil Klotzbach, Johnny C. L. Chan, Bin Wang, Ping Chang, Tim Li, and Fei-Fei Jin
18. ENSO-Driven Ocean Extremes and Their Ecosystem Impacts 409
Neil J. Holbrook, Danielle C. Claar, Alistair J. Hobday, Kathleen L. McInnes, Eric C. J. Oliver, Alex Sen Gupta, Matthew J. Widlansky, and Xuebin Zhang
19. ENSO Impact on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems 429
Patrick Lehodey, Arnaud Bertrand, Alistair J. Hobday, Hidetada Kiyofuji, Sam McClatchie, Christophe E. Menkès, Graham Pilling, Jeffrey Polovina, and Desiree Tommasi
20. ENSO and the Carbon Cycle 453
Richard A. Betts, Chantelle A. Burton, Richard A. Feely, Mat Collins, Chris D. Jones, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Section VII: Closing
21. ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo‐Perspectives, and Outlook
Christina Karamperidou, Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Sook Yun, Sun-Seon Lee, Fei-Fei Jin, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, and Wenju Cai
Glossary 485
Index 491
