Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource
Geopolitical Alpha - An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.
Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:
- What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade
- Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk
- How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns
Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
Table of Contents
Foreword by Steven Drobny vii
Introduction xi
Part One Scaffolding 1
Chapter 1 We’re Not in Kansas Anymore 3
Chapter 2 The Constraint Framework: Three Pillars 19
Chapter 3 The Wizards of Oz 44
Part Two The Constraints 69
Chapter 4 Politics 71
Chapter 5 The Economy and the Market 103
Chapter 6 Geopolitics 142
Chapter 7 Constitutional and Legal Constraints: The Constraint-Preference Hybrids 161
Chapter 8 The Time Constraint: When Preferences Run Down the Clock 174
Part Three Operationalization 201
Chapter 9 The Art of the Net Assessment 203
Chapter 10 Game Theory - It’s Not a Game! 235
Chapter 11 Geopolitical Alpha 245
Chapter 12 Conclusion 261
Acknowledgements 265
Bibliography 271
Index 279
